Underdog Washington State on roll since loss to FCS foe
Seven weekends ago, just one game into his fourth season, Mike Leach was under siege. His record as Washington State’s coach had dipped to 12-26.
Of all the defeats, however, none had been more demoralizing than the 24-17 home loss to Portland State on Sept. 5. Sports books that post point spreads on such FBS-FCS matchups had pegged Washington State as a 30-point favorite.
“It’s a shame because we’re a lot better team than that,” Leach said in the aftermath of Washington State’s first loss to a FCS team since 1978. “We haven’t had a practice that was worse than that game.”
Local columnists quickly questioned Leach’s $2.75 million annual salary (which made him Washington state’s highest-paid employee in 2014), Twitter was ablaze with armchair Cougars barking for the quirky pirate’s job, and a once-positive outlook for the season suddenly had turned sour on a stormy day in Pullman.
Fast forward to this weekend, however, and the tables have turned for the better for the Cougars.
Washington State has either won or covered each of its past five games since the Portland State debacle and marches into Tucson for today’s matchup against Arizona off back-to-back Pac-12 victories and with a 4-2 record. A season feared to be lost after just four quarters has been salvaged, and the Cougars have a fighting chance to go bowling.
Washington State quarterback Luke Falk has been gaining momentum as a top-flight passer and should see that trend continue against the Wildcats, who are extremely green in the secondary and rank No. 80 in the NCAA in team passing efficiency defense.
Technically, the Cougars are 10-4 ATS as conference road underdogs under Leach.
Also, Arizona, which again will be without injured All-America linebacker Scooby Wright, is playing for the eighth straight week.
Washington State might not escape Tucson with the straight-up victory, but the fundamental and technical edges point to taking the Cougars as 7-point underdogs.
Six more plays for today (home team in CAPS):
* Indiana (+16½) over MICHIGAN STATE — The Hoosiers have endured more than their share of heartbreak this season, but quarterback Nate Sudfeld is sneaky good, and the Spartans (1-6 ATS) are fool’s gold despite their top-shelf ranking and last week’s stunning win at rival Michigan. Indiana typically does not merit its opponent’s full measure of attention, and the Hoosiers have covered four of their past five as double-digit ‘dogs.
* WAKE FOREST (+9) over North Carolina State — Wake Forest is on quite a downer, coming off its worst defeat of the season, a 50-14 thumping against a rising North Carolina squad. If that’s not enough, Wake’s top quarterbacks — John Wolford and Keenan Holman — have been hobbled recently by injuries.
Still, several technical advantages rest with the Demon Deacons, most notably the fact that N.C. State has failed to cover in its past 13 tries as a conference road favorite.
* Tennessee-ALABAMA (Under 52½) — For my money, Alabama deserves billing as college football’s top team as the calendar closes in on November. The primary reason for the Crimson Tide’s lofty designation is, as usual, defense.
Tennessee has a stellar running game, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and 222 yards per game behind tailback Jalen Hurd and dual-threat quarterback Joshua Dobbs. Alabama, however, annually ranks among the nation’s best at defending the run, and this year is no different, as the Tide allow 2.4 yards per carry and 71 yards per game. Since the start of the 2008 season, Alabama is 7-22 under the total as a conference home favorite.
* Kansas State (+7) over TEXAS — The Longhorns are coming off their most impressive victory of the Charlie Strong era — a stunning 24-17 defeat of Oklahoma two weeks ago at the Cotton Bowl. The Wildcats, on the other hand, limp in after sustaining the school’s worst-ever home shutout loss — a 55-0 blanking against the same Sooners squad that fell to Texas one week earlier.
The Oklahoma drubbing prompted Kansas State coach Bill Snyder to write a letter of apology to fans. Snyder always seems to work a little magic with smoke and mirrors when it is least expected, as he’s 12-0 ATS off a defeat of 28 or more points.
* Southern Methodist (+13) over SOUTH FLORIDA — Former Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris has done a nice job in his first season as SMU’s coach despite a 1-5 record. The Bulls have failed to cover their past six games as double-digit favorites.
* LOUISIANA STATE (-16) over Western Kentucky — The Hilltoppers are known more for point-a-minute, fast-paced offense than smash-mouth defense.
Western Kentucky’s weak defense now gets Heisman Trophy front-runner Leonard Fournette, who has rushed for 1,202 yards this season and averages 8 yards per carry against far stingier units than the Hilltoppers. Fournette’s Heisman campaign should post an exclamation point.
Last week: 2-3 against the spread
Season: 16-17-5
— Paul Stone of VegasSportsAuthority.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
