UCLA looks like a cover against fortunate BYU
Two weeks ago, Tanner Mangum was an anonymous backup quarterback. Suddenly, he’s the star of the luckiest team in college football.
Mangum completed a Hail Mary to help Brigham Young stun Nebraska in the opener. It’s tough to top that, but he came close by leading the Cougars to a remarkable comeback victory over Boise State a week ago.
BYU is a 16½-point underdog at UCLA on Saturday. The Gold Sheet is recommending a bet on the Bruins, who rolled to double-digit wins over Virginia and UNLV.
Bruins coach Jim Mora Jr. is 2-4-1 against the spread in his past seven games at the Rose Bowl, but UCLA’s extended spread mark at home (43-25 since early in 2004) is good. Cougars coach Bronco Mendenhall is 2-5 ATS in his past seven as a ‘dog away from Provo, Utah.
I am a bit leery laying all of those points, but the BYU magic has to end soon.
More technical notes and trends on college and NFL games:
* Northern Illinois at Ohio State: The Buckeyes are 4-4 ATS at home since last year, and coach Urban Meyer is 11-11 as double-digit chalk since 2013. The Huskies are 15-4 ATS as visitors since 2012, but no covers in their past three as double-digit ‘dogs since 2011. Northern Illinois has covered its past four versus Big Ten opponents. Tech edge: Northern Illinois.
* UNR at Texas A&M: The Aggies are 5-8 as Kyle Field chalk the past two seasons. The Wolf Pack are 9-4 as double-digit ‘dogs since 2010. Tech edge: UNR.
* Auburn at Louisiana State: Auburn has covered four of the past five versus Les Miles but has not won straight-up at Baton Rouge since 1999. Auburn coach Gus Malzahn is 1-6 ATS in his past seven away from home. Miles is 14-14 ATS at Baton Rouge since 2011. Tech edge: Auburn.
* Florida at Kentucky: The Gators have not lost straight-up versus Kentucky since 1986. Florida had a seven-game cover streak against the Wildcats snapped last year in a narrow overtime win. Jim McElwain is on a 22-9 spread run as coach at Colorado State and Florida. Tech edge: Florida.
* Stanford at Southern California: Cardinal coach David Shaw has given games to USC the past two years, after Stanford had won four straight and five of six straight-up versus the Trojans. Stanford is 7-3 ATS in its past 10 against USC. Shaw is 6-1-1 as a ‘dog with the Cardinals. Tech edge: Stanford.
* Air Force at Michigan State: Falcons coach Troy Calhoun is rediscovering spread magic, going 10-5 since last year and 4-2 as a ‘dog in that span. The Spartans have no covers in their first two games. Tech edge: Air Force.
* Houston at Carolina: The Texans were 5-2 ATS last season for coach Bill O’Brien after a loss. Carolina has not covered its second game on the schedule the past four years. The Panthers are 13-4 under the total in their past 17 at home. Tech edges: Texans and Under.
* Arizona at Chicago: Bruce Arians is 11-5 ATS on the road in the regular season as Cardinals coach. The Bears are 5-16-2 ATS in their past 23 at Soldier Field. Tech edge: Cardinals.
* St. Louis at Washington: The Rams are 5-11 ATS away the past two seasons after coach Jeff Fisher was 7-1 in that role in 2012. But the Rams did win 24-0 at Washington last year. The Redskins are on a 7-18 spread run. Tech edge: Rams.
* Dallas at Philadelphia: The Cowboys have won and covered their past three at Philadelphia. Dallas is 11-4 as a road ‘dog the past three seasons and covered eight of nine away from home last year. The Cowboys are 11-2 over the total in their past 13 regular-season road games. Eagles coach Chip Kelly went 6-2 over the total at home last year. Tech edges: Cowboys and Over.
Las Vegas handicapper Bruce Marshall is editor of The Gold Sheet (goldsheet.com).
