Trends favor Pack to win, cover in opener
After a summer of uncertainty, the NFL is guaranteeing a season-opening blockbuster today by putting Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees, the past two Super Bowl Most Valuable Players, on a big stage.
Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are 4-point favorites over the New Orleans Saints at Lambeau Field in a game that kicks off a five-month betting frenzy.
“It’s really a great matchup, and I expect the betting to be hot and heavy,” Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay said.
A strong trend could be working in the Packers’ favor. The defending Super Bowl champions have won 11 straight season openers while posting a 7-2-2 mark against the spread.
The total has moved from 47 to 47½, and Kornegay said he anticipates late line adjustments.
“It’s pretty evenly bet at this point in time, but we’re expecting Packers and ‘over’ money to show up,” he said. “It will attract a lot of interest a few hours before kickoff. It’s not going to surprise me if we see it close Packers minus-5 and 49.”
As every football bettor knows, a half-point can be important. Brees and the Saints were about 5-point favorites in a 14-9 victory over the Minnesota Vikings in last year’s opener. The line in that game closed between 4½ and 5½.
The Packers and Saints each ranked in the league’s top 10 in total offense and averaged at least 24 points a game last season. Both teams could be stronger offensively with key additions.
New Orleans lost running back Reggie Bush to Miami, but Pierre Thomas returns with free agent Darren Sproles and first-round draft pick Mark Ingram. Green Bay welcomes back tight end Jermichael Finley and running back Ryan Grant from injuries.
“Prolific offenses led by Brees and Rodgers should mean big plays in the passing game,” said handicapper Mark Franco (FrancoSports.com).
Franco’s play is over the total, and Kornegay said the public is likely to wager the same way.
“You’re looking at two of the top four offenses in the league. It’s going to be hard to attract ‘under’ money,” Kornegay said.
Contact reporter Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.
