Take underdog 49ers to cover spread vs. Seahawks
The money is flowing in on the Seattle Seahawks, who opened as 5½-point favorites and are now laying 6½ points at Las Vegas sports books against the rival San Francisco 49ers in today’s “Thursday Night Football” matchup (5:25 p.m., CBS (8), NFLN (317)) at Levi’s Stadium.
The trends in the matchup favor Seattle, which is 7-0-1 against the spread vs. the Niners and 5-0 ATS on Thursday night. But Gold Sheet handicapper Bruce Marshall (goldsheet.com) is siding with San Francisco, which Sunset Station sports book director Chuck Esposito said could be getting a touchdown by kickoff.
“I’m not sure I’d be bold enough to take (the 49ers) on the money line, but at plus-6½ or 7, I think it’s a live bet,” Marshall said. “Defensively, Seattle has got some real problems there and I’m not sure they’re fixing them. Their tackling has been shoddy, they’ve blown leads and they’re not playing well in the fourth quarter.
“They have structural problems on the offensive line, they’ve had to reshuffle their line and they’re not protecting (quarterback Russell) Wilson.”
While the 2013 NFC title game opponents are each 2-4, Seattle has blown fourth-quarter leads in losses the last two weeks while the Niners have shown improvement in a narrow loss to the New York Giants and a win Sunday over the Baltimore Ravens.
“I’d be reluctant to take San Francisco if I didn’t see the last two weeks. The last two games have been very encouraging for San Francisco,” Marshall said. “They’re turning (quarterback Colin) Kaepernick loose again and letting him throw downfield. That spreads the defense a little more and he’s got some decent receivers.”
Marshall also leans to under the total of 42½. The under has gone 6-1 in the last seven meetings and is 8-3 at Levi’s Stadium, where the Niners have held opponents to an average of 13.3 points per game this season.
“Especially at home, San Francisco plays a lot closer to the vest,” Esposito said. “They play a lot better defense and try to run the ball. It’s one of those prime-time games where you may see the total go down.”
Seattle won both meetings last season by scores of 19-3 and 17-7 but doesn’t have the same defense this year. The Seahawks allowed Cam Newton to throw a game-winning 26-yard touchdown pass to a wide open Greg Olsen with 32 seconds remaining Sunday in Carolina’s 27-23 victory in Seattle.
“They just don’t look like the same defensive team,” Esposito said. “When Olsen scored that touchdown and (Seahawks safety Kam) Chancellor and (cornerback Richard) Sherman were pointing fingers at each other, that’s very uncharacteristic of a Pete Carroll defense.”
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