Super Bowl betting: Value solidly on Giants’ side

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When the Super Bowl line opened two weeks ago, most bettors were quick to jump on the New York Giants getting 3½ points. The number has dropped a half-point to a point at Las Vegas sports books as support for the underdog remains strong.

Scott Kellen, who won the $48,000 “Cantor Football Showdown” this season by emerging from a field of 16 handicappers, is also on the Giants’ side.

The New England Patriots are 2½- to 3-point favorites, with the total bouncing from 54 to 54½.

Kellen (SixthSenseSports.com) offers his analysis of today’s matchup:

Both teams advanced from conference championship games in which they were badly beaten in the stats department and needed timely turnovers or opponent miscues to win. The Patriots were outgained by Baltimore 5.7 yards per play to 4.9. They were outgained by an average Ravens passing attack, 7.2 yards per pass to 6.3, and outrushed 3.7 yards per rush to 3.1. The Giants also were badly outgained by San Francisco, 5.8 yards per play to 3.9, being outrushed 5.4 to 3.3 and outpassed 6.1 to 4.2.

In fairness to the Giants, the 49ers scored early on a 78-yard touchdown pass to tight end Vernon Davis or they would have averaged only 3.6 yards per pass and 4.5 per play. But the Giants have been susceptible to big plays, so that still has to be a concern. San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith also rushed for 42 yards on six carries, which I’m pretty sure Tom Brady won’t do, but the 49ers still averaged 4.9 yards per rush without factoring in those yards.

The betting down of the original minus-3½ was for good reason. Every way I look at this game I get the Giants as the straight-up winner.

I’ve looked at this game in countless ways: all games, away games only, games against playoff opponents, the Patriots in games when defensive standouts Patrick Chung and Brandon Spikes played, the Giants when they were healthy, against good passing teams, against good defensive teams, and so on. The average score for all of those scenarios is 28-25 in favor of the Giants. The most lopsided score for one of those scenarios is 27-20 in the Giants’ favor.

These teams met in Week 9 and the Giants scored late to defeat the Patriots, 24-20. Ironically, that was New England’s last loss. In that game the Patriots outgained the Giants 5.8 yards per play to 5.3. The Patriots averaged 6.5 yards per pass (332 yards) and the Giants averaged 6.4 (250 yards). New England turned the ball over four times to only twice for the Giants. The game was scoreless at halftime and the teams combined to score 44 points in the second half, including 21 in the last four minutes.

It’s important to note the Giants played that game without running back Ahmad Bradshaw, wide receiver Hakeem Nicks and center David Baas. The Patriots were pretty healthy, including having Chung and Spikes in the lineup. Both teams will play today without one key player from that game — left tackle Will Beatty for the Giants and defensive lineman Andre Carter for the Patriots.

Injuries hindered both teams this season. In fact, the Giants really have been healthy only since the playoffs began. In every other game, they were missing either a key offensive or defensive player. The Patriots have been relatively healthy on offense, but were missing key defensive players for much of the second half of the season and a few early games, too.

One of the reasons I went against the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game was because they played a soft schedule and failed when they have stepped up in class. New England has played only three teams with winning records and was 1-2 in those games, including the victory over Baltimore in which the Patriots were outplayed.

New England faced one other team which at the time of the game had a good defense and an explosive offense, and that was Dallas. In those four games, the Patriots defeated Dallas 20-16, lost at Pittsburgh 25-17, lost to the Giants and defeated Baltimore, 23-20. They have not scored more than 23 points against the best competition they have faced. But they also did not allow more than 25 points in any of those games.

The Giants averaged only 3.5 yards per rush during the regular season — although Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs were closer to 3.9 — but in the postseason they have averaged closer to 4.2. The New York defense also allowed 5.0 yards per rush in the playoffs, but 108 of those yards came on 13 carries (8.3 average) by the 49ers’ Smith and Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers. Brady doesn’t have the same speed and agility, so if you remove those yards, the Giants have allowed roughly 4.3 yards per rush during the playoffs, a little better than the regular season (4.5).

At plus-3½, there was tremendous value on the Giants. At 3, there is excellent value on the Giants, and anything less than 3 offers only average value. The numbers, no matter how you slice them, point toward a Giants straight-up victory. They beat the Patriots on their home field and were without three of their best offensive players. New England has struggled against the few good teams it has faced, and the Giants defeated two of the three best teams in the NFC on the road during the playoffs. Everything to this point leads me to the Giants.

The Patriots probably will have Rob Gronkowski at tight end, but I seriously doubt he will give them the same advantage, and that will be a big loss if he can’t produce like he has during the season and the playoffs.

I would also lean strongly under the total, knowing New England has allowed more than 27 points only once all season and also has not scored more than 23 points against a quality team.

The total on the Super Bowl before the playoffs was around 53, and that was assuming we would see the Patriots against Green Bay or New Orleans, or that type of matchup. This total is priced higher than the original number.

Also, remember, the score was 24-20 in November, and these teams’ previous Super Bowl meeting ended 17-14.

Projected final: Giants 27, Patriots 23