Road remains treacherous place for Ole Miss
Two months ago, many pundits had Auburn pegged as a contender for college football’s four-team playoff. The season has not gone how coach Gus Malzahn and those pundits planned, however.
The transition from outgoing quarterback Nick Marshall to Jeremy Johnson was supposed to be seamless. In fact, many close to the program believed Johnson, a superior passer, was an upgrade from Marshall. But the best-laid plans sometimes go awry.
Johnson was replaced by Sean White less than a month into the season, and the Tigers sustained a couple of impactful defensive injuries. For whatever reason, a number of things just have not clicked for Auburn, which enters today’s Southeastern Conference West home game against Mississippi with a 4-3 record.
Reflective of its season, Auburn is coming off a 54-46 four-overtime defeat at Arkansas.
Since upsetting Alabama 43-37 in Tuscaloosa in the season’s third week — thanks in large part to five Crimson Tide turnovers — Mississippi has been mostly an up-and-down team. To be precise, up at home and down on the road.
The Rebels, who look as good as any team in college football on paper, were thrashed by 28 points at Florida and fell 37-24 at Memphis.
Mississippi, then ranked No. 7, still was in the playoff conversation last November when it lost to fifth-ranked Auburn at home in a thrilling contest which came down to the final moments.
The Rebels trailed 35-30 with 1:30 remaining when wide receiver Laquon Treadwell was closing in on the go-ahead score before suffering a gruesome combination of injuries (a broken fibula and dislocated ankle) and fumbling near the goal line.
Emotions sparked by revenge certainly play a role in college football, but it is only part of the equation. Some teams have a significant home/road dichotomy attached to their profile. Some point-spread roles fit better than others.
Over the past decade and change, Mississippi has stumbled mightily when cast as an away favorite. Since the start of the 2004 season, the Rebels are a money-burning 5-16 ATS when laying points on the road.
Even though Mississippi’s defense is coming off its most impressive showing of the season against Texas A&M, look for the Rebels to show their road colors. Take Auburn and the 7½ points.
Four more plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):
* Nebraska-PURDUE (Under 54) — In their past seven Big Ten contests, the Boilermakers scored 16 or fewer points six times, with the high-water mark being a 21-point effort at Michigan State. The Cornhuskers will start walk-on Ryker Fyfe at quarterback, with starter Tommy Armstrong hobbled by a foot injury. There is also a chance of showers and steady winds, so look for conservative play-calling and lots of running.
* Florida (-2) over Georgia — With star sophomore tailback Nick Chubb sidelined for the season and quarterback Greyson Lambert providing uneven results, Georgia coach Mark Richt is expected to start relative unknown Faton Bauta at quarterback in this rivalry game at Jacksonville. Bauta is a 6-foot-3-inch, 218-pound junior who is athletic and has a tireless work ethic. He has logged precious few snaps during his college career, however, and Florida’s defense sure seems like a curious starting point.
* TEMPLE (+11) over Notre Dame — This caliber of national stage, complete with ESPN College GameDay on hand, is certainly more familiar to the well-versed Fighting Irish than the upstart Owls. Notre Dame already has played the likes of Texas, Clemson and Southern California this season, and this one frankly carries far more meaning for Temple. Look for the Owls’ veteran defense to keep the Irish under 30 points and cover the double-digit line.
* IOWA STATE (+5) over Texas — Cyclones coach Paul Rhoads clearly needs a signature victory, as most observers believe the clock is ticking on his tenure at Iowa State. In what could be perceived as an act of desperation, Rhoads fired offensive coordinator Mark Mangino this week and concurrently appointed Joel Lanning as his new starting quarterback.
The Longhorns have gotten better in consecutive wins over Oklahoma and Kansas State, but they could experience tough sledding on the road in Ames.
Last week: 3-4 against the spread
Season: 19-21-5
Paul Stone of VegasSportsAuthority.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
