QB edge should lift Steelers
What happened to Ben Roethlisberger in the season opener could be forgiven as just a bad day, but the Pittsburgh Steelers have not forgotten the severe beating they took from the Baltimore Ravens.
An AFC North rivalry known for close, physical battles turned into a one-sided alley fight as the Ravens rolled, 35-7. The Steelers coughed up seven turnovers on Sept. 11, and Roethlisberger had five of them with three interceptions and two fumbles.
But Pittsburgh (6-2) has rebounded, and no team in the AFC has played better since. Baltimore (5-2) has seen a decline in its play, especially from slumping quarterback Joe Flacco.
The Steelers are favorites in today’s rematch. The line is minus-3 (minus-120) at most Las Vegas sports books, and handicapper Mark Franco is siding with Roethlisberger in a major revenge game.
“The Ravens did dominate the first meeting and ran up the score a bit, so don’t think the Steelers have forgotten about that, and they go in with extra motivation,” said Franco (FrancoSports.com). “With this being the night game, expect the Pittsburgh crowd to be more fired up than normal.”
Pittsburgh, with the No. 1-ranked pass defense in the NFL, shut down Tom Brady and the New England Patriots’ high-powered attack a week ago. Flacco won’t inspire much fear in Troy Polamalu and the Steelers.
“Flacco looks downright bad on some of his throws. Once the Steelers slow running back Ray Rice, Flacco will be forced into some pressure situations that should lead to a few turnovers,” Franco said.
Flacco has completed only 53.7 percent of his passes, and he had one touchdown pass and four interceptions in the past four games. Roethlisberger, meanwhile, has had a hot hand. “Big Ben” threw for 726 yards in the past two games and has 11 touchdown passes during a four-game winning streak.
The Steelers have injury issues in their linebacking corps, however, as LaMarr Woodley is out and James Farrior is questionable. But James Harrison is expected to return after missing four games.
Franco breaks down the rest of today’s Week 9 schedule:
■ Atlanta (-7) at Indianapolis: The Falcons are off a bye after beating Detroit on the road. I don’t see how the Colts’ defense can stop quarterback Matt Ryan and the Atlanta offense. The Falcons have been more effective as of late running the football, so look for Michael Turner, who has rushed for 621 yards and six touchdowns, to be a big factor. The Colts’ Curtis Painter has a chance to be a good backup quarterback in the league, but he’s not getting much help. Atlanta has won two straight and is back in playoff contention, and I expect the road favorite to get the cover.
■ Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-8): First place in the NFC South will be on the line. The Buccaneers (4-3) had a week off to prepare, but I doubt that will help. The Saints (5-3) will be fired up to prove last week’s embarrassing loss at St. Louis was a fluke. With the home crowd behind them, the Saints should rise to the challenge and avenge their 26-20 loss at Tampa Bay on Oct. 16. Drew Brees will atone for his two-interception game a week ago. Tampa Bay has problems offensively, so I like New Orleans.
■ Cleveland at Houston (-10½): Even without star linebacker Mario Williams, the Texans’ defense has been tough, and I don’t see the Browns having much success moving the ball. Running back Peyton Hillis will be out again. Houston’s defense limited Jacksonville to 174 yards last week. The Cleveland defense is leaky and is facing two backs, Arian Foster (532 yards) and Ben Tate (508), on track for 1,000-yard rushing seasons. Cleveland is in a 2-12-1 against-the-spread slump and is 7-18-1 ATS off a straight-up loss. The Browns also have failed to cover their past six as underdogs. Lay the double digits with Houston.
■ New York Jets at Buffalo (-2½): The Bills have an opportunistic defense that is playing smart and forcing mistakes. Jets coach Rex Ryan’s defense has been average and will get tested by Fred Jackson, who has emerged with 721 yards rushing. The question is, will the Jets turn in a good showing on offense? I’m not so sure. The Bills are 4-0 at home, so I’ll lean to them. This game could be key for a wild-card spot or maybe even the AFC East title. The Bills are on an 11-4-3 ATS run. The Jets are 0-4 ATS in their past four road games. In what will be a tight game, I’ll say the score stays under the total (45).
■ Miami at Kansas City (-4): The Chiefs have rebounded with four straight victories, and some credit should go to quarterback Matt Cassel. He looked good again Monday against the Chargers and quietly is proving doubters wrong about his ability to lead the team. The Chiefs will use the run early to open the passing lanes. The Dolphins got their first cover of the season last week, but they might be quitting on their coach. Miami is 1-8-1 ATS in its past 10 games. I like Kansas City to cover.
■ San Francisco (-4) at Washington: The Redskins will run into the NFL’s best rush defense, which spells trouble for quarterback John Beck. The 49ers have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in more than two seasons, and the streak won’t end now. The San Francisco offense keeps getting better, as coach Jim Harbaugh has turned around quarterback Alex Smith’s career. Now that receivers Michael Crabtree and Braylon Edwards are healthy, the offense is becoming more diverse. The Redskins will have to worry about Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter out of the backfield, as well as keep an eye on tight end Vernon Davis. The 49ers (6-0-1 ATS) are not built to blow teams out, but most signs still point to an easy win over the Redskins.
■ Seattle at Dallas (-11): Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo has been great at times, but other times he has been horrible. Which Romo will show up? The Seattle secondary is beatable, so I say the good Romo shows up. Look for DeMarco Murray to have a strong day running the ball, too. Dallas linebacker DeMarcus Ware is having a monster year with 12 sacks, including four against Michael Vick and the Eagles, and I see Ware and the defense dominating the Seahawks up front. I’ll lean to the Cowboys. Seattle is 3-15 ATS as road underdog, while Dallas is 29-13 ATS off loss by 14 points or more.
■ Denver at Oakland (-7): Look for the Raiders to force the Broncos into passing situations by loading the box to stop the run. Denver quarterback Tim Tebow has played poorly, and it’s doubtful he gets much better this week. Carson Palmer will be anxious to prove the three interceptions he threw, days after being traded to Oakland, were a result of rust. With more time to prepare, Palmer will be ready to go against a Denver defense that has been disappointing. Raiders running back Darren McFadden is out, but I’ll still side with an Oakland team that is 13-4 ATS after a spread loss.
■ Cincinnati at Tennessee (-3): The Bengals are for real, and it’s because their defense has been tough and rookie quarterback Andy Dalton has been solid. Cincinnati will get back to its power running attack with Cedric Benson returning from suspension. Titans running back Chris Johnson has been ineffective. I don’t trust Tennessee, so I’ll go with the Bengals as underdogs in a low-scoring game.
■ St. Louis at Arizona (-3): Because of a turf toe injury, Cardinals quarterback Kevin Kolb is unlikely to play, so backup John Skelton is the expected starter. Arizona has lost six straight. The Rams are off their first victory in an upset of the Saints, but I’m not sure they can keep that momentum going on the road. The St. Louis offense is improving with running back Steven Jackson appearing rejuvenated, but quarterback Sam Bradford is doubtful to go. In a matchup of bad teams and perhaps two backup QBs, I’ll pass.
■ New York Giants at New England (-9): These teams meet for the first time since the New York front four smothered Tom Brady and the Patriots en route to a Super Bowl XLII upset. The Giants are banged up with wideout Hakeem Nicks and running back Ahmad Bradshaw declared out. Expect big scoring plays from Brady and Giants quarterback Eli Manning. The “over” is 20-6 in New England’s past 26 games. I’m betting over the total (51) in what should be an entertaining game.
■ Green Bay (-6) at San Diego: Mistakes did the Chargers in Monday in a loss at Kansas City. That means a short week and a lot of analysis on why they failed. Philip Rivers’ play keeps getting worse, and the San Diego quarterback leads the league in giveaways with 14. The Packers top the NFL with an average of 32.9 points per game. Green Bay is undefeated for a reason. Clay Matthews and the defensive front will beat up the Chargers’ offensive line. I don’t think the Packers will let down on this West Coast trip, so I’m playing the favorite.
COMPILED BY MATT YOUMANS/REVIEW-JOURNAL
