Pros on Alabama, public on Clemson in CFP title game
In a rare role reversal, professional sports bettors are backing the favorite and the so-called public squares are siding with the underdog in Monday’s college football national championship game.
Perception is reality for the public, which is all over 6½-point underdog Clemson on the money line, at plus-190, against Alabama.
The Crimson Tide, riding a 26-game win streak that includes a 45-40 victory over the Tigers in last year’s national title game, covered the 13-point spread in a 24-7 win over Washington in the College Football Playoff semifinal. But Clemson looked more impressive in annihilating Ohio State 31-0 in the other semifinal.
“There’s a ton of Clemson money-line support from the public,” Westgate sports book manager Ed Salmons said. “We’ve had some professionals on the Alabama side, but the public side is way more tilted toward Clemson, especially on the money line.
“It’s the perception of last week. One week will change everyone’s mind. It’s amazing how that works.”
Alabama, gunning for its fifth national title in eight years under coach Nick Saban, opened as a 7-point favorite and was quickly bet to 6½ at most books. Salmon expects the number to stay there at the Westgate.
“Even though a couple professional groups are on the favorite, the public is so strong on Clemson. The public may win out on this,” he said. “When you have games like this, the public can overwhelm the professionals. I feel this game is headed in that direction. That’s hard to do because these groups try to get down as much as they can.”
The public also has driven down the money line. The Crimson Tide is a minus-220 favorite, which Salmons said is a much shorter price than for most teams laying 6½ points.
“A normal game would be more like (minus-) 250 or 260,” he said.
Salmons agrees with the wiseguys in this one, pointing to Alabama’s top-ranked defense, which has scored 11 touchdowns this season. The Crimson Tide also has scored four touchdowns on special teams.
“Clemson’s offense is not as good as last year and is very turnover prone. Alabama seems to score a touchdown on defense every game, and that seems very likely to happen,” he said. “I just think Alabama’s too good for these guys. They’re too big, and they have five or six first-round NFL draft picks on that defense.
“It’s probably the best defense that’s ever played in college football. I think they will wear them down.”
Sunset Station sports book director Chuck Esposito said Friday there was more action on the Clemson-Alabama rematch than on any of the NFL wild-card playoff games.
William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said he expects a lower-scoring version of last year’s title game, when the Tigers scored in the final minute for a backdoor cover.
“I think it will be decided by less than a touchdown,” he said. “It should be a hell of a game, which we need because the two semifinals were clunkers.”
The total opened at 54½ and has been bet to 50½ at most places.
Favorites are 26-14 straight-up in bowl games this season and 14-25-1 ATS. The over is 16-24.
BOWL CHALLENGE RESULTS
Dana Lane (Danalanesports.com) won the Las Vegas Review-Journal College Bowl Challenge with 11½ points, going 10-9-1 and winning his best bet on Minnesota, an outright 9-point underdog winner in a 17-12 victory over Washington State in the Holiday Bowl.
Bruce Marshall (Goldsheet.com) and former Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans tied for second with 11 points each and 11-9 records. Doug Fitz (Systemplays.com) and Alex B. Smith (Axsmithsports.com) each finished with nine points and 9-11 records.
Marshall, who won the Review-Journal’s College Challenge this season with a 33-26-1 record ATS, is predicting Clemson to pull off the outright upset in a game that will go under.
“It’s going to take a special effort to take down this Crimson Tide juggernaut. But the Tigers seem up to the task, as they’re playing their best of the season and won’t be intimidated by ’Bama,” he said. “The Tide is not unbeatable. Perhaps Saban can reach into his bag of tricks, but I think the table is better set for Tiger revenge.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0354. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.
