Playoff hopes could be dashed this weekend
This is one of those weekends every college football fan dreams of, and that’s because 12 teams in the Top 25 are facing off Saturday. These games definitely will make a difference in the season.
For the one-loss teams, lose and all playoff hopes are inevitably shot. The winners might move one spot closer to the coveted top four spots in the College Football Playoff.
Here’s my scouting report on the six biggest games, with the teams’ rankings by the playoff committee:
■ No. 5 Alabama (-6½) at No. 16 Louisiana State: The Crimson Tide rolls into Death Valley for a night game, and that’s never easy for the visitor. After struggling for a couple of weeks, Alabama bounced back to embarrass Texas A&M before a week off. LSU upset Mississippi and also got a nice one-week vacation. Be prepared for some smash-mouth football. The total (45½) is low for a reason, as 11 of the past 18 meetings stayed under. It appears to me as if Alabama is a little inflated as a 6½-point favorite, and that might be too many points to lay on the road.
■ No. 12 Baylor at No. 15 Oklahoma (-5½): The one-loss Bears are headed into one of the toughest places to play in the Big 12. Baylor found Morgantown, W.Va., to be an unfriendly environment, and Norman, Okla., is just as hostile. Senior quarterback Bryce Petty and the Bears boast the nation’s No. 1 scoring offense at an astounding 50.4 points per game. It seems like impressive blowouts galore for this team, but another look at the schedule tells a different story. Baylor has played only two Top 25 teams — Texas Christian and West Virginia. I wish I could make a strong case for the underdog here, but the Bears are making too many crucial mistakes to beat a disciplined two-loss Sooners team.
■ No. 14 Ohio State at No. 8 Michigan State (-3½): The Buckeyes fell early in the season to Virginia Tech, and it seemed as if their season was done. They have since come roaring back in true Ohio State fashion by blowing out the middle-of-the-road Big Ten teams such as Illinois, Rutgers and Maryland. Freshman quarterback J.T. Barrett is finally getting the hang of things just in time for underrated Michigan State, which suffered its only loss at Oregon. The sharp guys like the Buckeyes here, but I don’t know if I can bet against the Spartans at home.
■ No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 9 Arizona State (-2½): After narrowly losing at Florida State, the Fighting Irish went on the road and won a hard-fought game against Navy. The Sun Devils just dodged a bullet against Utah. These one-loss teams seem to be evenly matched. Notre Dame quarterback Everett Golson is a gamer, but with seven interceptions on the season, he makes me nervous against a decent Arizona State secondary. I’ll give a slight edge to the Irish as an underdog, as they tend to do well in that role by going 7-3 in their past 10. I can see this landing right around the number.
■ No. 4 Oregon (-8½) at No. 17 Utah: The Utes, just handed their second loss of the season by Arizona State, are back home in Salt Lake City and ready to ruin the Ducks’ playoff chances. It looks like money is coming in on Utah, with the line opening at 9½. The Utes are 7-1 ATS. Oregon’s Marcus Mariota is the front-runner in the Heisman Trophy race for good reason. Mariota has 26 touchdown passes and only two interceptions, so he’s not the cause for concern. The Ducks’ defense has been questionable all season. Oregon has its eyes set on the big prize, but don’t be shocked if the Ducks make some costly mistakes against a Utah team that easily could be undefeated.
■ No. 7 Kansas State at No. 6 Texas Christian (-6): The defensive-minded Wildcats travel to Fort Worth, Texas, to face the offensive-oriented Horned Frogs. Kansas State boasts the best defense in the Big 12 — with end Ryan Mueller leading the “Lynch Mob” — and allows only 18.6 points per game. At the quarterback position, TCU’s Trevone Boykin appears superior with his 22 touchdown passes, but he is completing only 57 percent of his throws. The Frogs rank No. 2 in the country in scoring at 48.0 points per game. Wildcats quarterback Jake Waters is a little more disciplined, though he has been sacked 17 times this season. Both teams have been almost perfect against the spread. I expect a game that goes down to the wire.
Hottie threesome
Each week, I recommend three underdogs that are live to win outright. I call it my “Hottie threesome,” and I also parlay the teams on the money line (Home team in CAPS):
■ LSU (+6½) over Alabama — The Crimson Tide are 0-4 ATS away from home this season.
■ UTAH (+8½) over Oregon — The Utes are 4-0 ATS as underdogs, with outright wins against Michigan, UCLA and Southern California.
■ Kansas State (+6) over TCU — Wildcats coach Bill Snyder has covered 23 of 32 games as an underdog since 2009.
NFL best bet
■ Denver (-11) over OAKLAND — After their blowout loss at New England, expect the Broncos to bounce back with their best effort. Peyton Manning said he stunk last week, so he will be sharp this week. The Raiders covered in their loss at Seattle, but they trailed 24-3 at halftime, and the game was not close until the Seahawks let up with a big lead.
Kelly Stewart of Kellyinvegas.com can be reached at Askkelly@reviewjournal.com. Follow her on Twitter: @kellyinvegas.
