Pats’ defense won’t slow Tebow
For most of the past decade, Tom Brady has been hyped like no other quarterback in the NFL. But for the past two months, Tim Tebow has pushed Brady to the background.
Brady and Tebow collide today, and the combination could create more wagering interest than any game in the regular season. The line movements are already volatile.
Brady and the New England Patriots are 7½-point road favorites over the Denver Broncos at most Las Vegas sports books. The line, which opened at 6½, has surged as high as 9½ at Cantor Gaming books.
VegasInsider.com handicapper Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, recommends taking the big number with the Broncos.
“Just when it looked like everyone had Tebow fever, a lot of people are jumping off the bandwagon this week as the spread has moved against the Broncos, as a result of both sharp and public money,” Roberts said.
Denver (8-5) is 7-1 since Tebow took over as the starter, but his passing numbers were anemic in the first three quarters of those games. Tebow has rallied the Broncos to a string of remarkable fourth-quarter comebacks.
But most of the opponents were mediocre. New England (10-3) is a legitimate Super Bowl contender, led by Brady and the most respected coach in the league, Bill Belichick.
Still, Roberts said the line inflation is too much. The Patriots were 7½-point favorites last week in a 34-27 win at Washington, which had lost seven of eight games.
“The Redskins covered and moved the ball quite well against the Patriots’ last-ranked defense. While I don’t think Denver’s defense will be able to contain Brady, I do think Tebow will be able to show off a little more through the air and adapt to whatever pace Brady forces,” Roberts said. “This has the makings of a high-scoring game, like the Broncos found themselves in against the Raiders and Vikings.”
Brady has a career record of 1-6 against Denver, and Roberts predicts it goes to 1-7 as the Broncos win, 37-35.
Roberts offers analysis and predicted scores for the rest of today’s Week 15 schedule:
■ Washington at New York Giants (-6½): The Redskins have shown some fight the past four weeks, and it should continue. Washington has covered three of its past four games and also has a 28-14 victory over the Giants in Week 1 to boost its confidence. The better play might be over the total of 46, as the Redskins have gone over four straight times and the Giants three straight. Giants, 28-24.
■ Green Bay (-14) at Kansas City: The line is 13½ at several books. The Chiefs have scored a total of 45 points in their past six games, and if we take that average against the Packers’ lowest-scoring output (24) of the season, we get a margin of 17. Are the Chiefs in a situation to shock the world and play one of their best games? I don’t think so. Green Bay’s magical season rolls on. Packers, 34-6.
■ New Orleans (-7) at Minnesota: Drew Brees and the Saints are in a nice groove, winning five games in a row since that wake-up call in St. Louis. That loss to the Rams remains their only dome loss of the season, as the Saints are an impressive 7-1 under the roof heading into the Metrodome. The Vikings have a five-game losing streak going, but they do get running back Adrian Peterson back, and that should help make the game more competitive than the spread indicates. I wouldn’t bet it, but I could see New Orleans in a close one. Saints, 27-21.
■ Seattle at Chicago (-3½): Seahawks coach Pete Carroll has done a great job this season maximizing the minimal talent on his roster. Seattle is playing very inspired football, while quarterback Caleb Hanie can’t move the Bears’ offense. This should be a low-scoring defensive battle, making the field goal and a hook very attractive. Seahawks, 16-10.
■ Miami at Buffalo (-1): Matt Moore is expected to be the Dolphins’ quarterback. Despite Tony Sparano getting axed as coach, it should be business as usual for Miami, which has played well the past two months. It’s difficult to back a lifeless Bills team on a six-game losing streak that includes a 35-8 loss at Miami on Nov. 20. Dolphins, 26-20.
■ Carolina at Houston (-6): It’s tough to go against a team that has won seven straight. But the Texans’ last-second win at Cincinnati, where rookie quarterback T.J. Yates was the hero, sets this game up for a bit of a letdown. It’s a good spot for Cam Newton to contend for the win, so I’ll side with the rookie’s never-say-quit attitude and at least look for another backdoor cover. Panthers, 24-20.
■ Tennessee (-6½) at Indianapolis: There’s really nothing good you can say about the Colts, except that maybe they play a little more inspired at home. The spread is not high enough to take them, nor low enough to back the Titans. I’ll stay with the typical Titans score, win or lose, the past four weeks. Titans, 23-17.
■ Cincinnati (-7) at St. Louis: It’s apparent the Rams’ Sam Bradford has taken two giant steps back in his maturation process as an NFL quarterback. However, this is a tough spot for the Bengals to lay points, after losing four of their past five games and seeing their window of opportunity for the playoffs get foggy. I lean toward taking the points with St. Louis at home specifically because of Cincinnati’s freefall. Bengals, 16-13.
■ Detroit (-1) at Oakland: The Raiders have lost two in a row and looked bad doing so, getting outscored by a combined total of 80-30 against Miami and Green Bay. I like the Lions in this spot because they have shown they can take care of business against lesser opponents. Detroit’s five losses were to the elite teams of the NFC. The Lions steamrolled through two AFC West opponents (Denver, Kansas City) by a combined score of 93-13. Lions, 34-20.
■ New York Jets at Philadelphia (-2½): The Eagles have a little one-game winning streak going, quarterback Michael Vick is back and all is well. With nothing technically on the line for the Eagles and it merely being an exhibition type of game for them, I look for Vick to have a pretty good effort. Although the Jets have won three in a row and their defense is vastly improved, laying less than a field goal with Philadelphia is attractive. The line is bouncing between 2½ and 3. Eagles, 24-20.
■ Cleveland at Arizona (-6½): It’s Seneca Wallace vs. John Skelton in an epic quarterback matchup. The Browns are on a three-game losing streak, and the Cardinals are the hottest team west of the Rocky Mountains after winning three in a row. Arizona is playing great football, winning five of six, and the reason behind it has been Skelton. But this is the highest spread the Cardinals have been required to cover all season. It’s new territory for Arizona as a big favorite, but I would still lay it. Cardinals, 24-13.
■ Baltimore (-2½) at San Diego: As soon as the calendar turned a page to December, the Chargers responded and immediately ended a six-game losing streak. They have won two straight, and quarterback Philip Rivers has upped his career mark to 22-2 in this month. The Ravens are riding a four-game winning streak, but three of those games were at home and the other was at their old home in Cleveland. I think we’ll see the Baltimore team that lost at Tennessee, Jacksonville and Seattle. Chargers, 27-21.
COMPILED BY MATT YOUMANS/REVIEW-JOURNAL
