Patriots could close as 7½-point favorites; handicapper likes over 51½
After a roller-coaster ride of line moves on the NFL season opener between the Patriots and Steelers throughout the seemingly endless Deflategate offseason saga, New England is firmly entrenched as a 7-point favorite over Pittsburgh in today’s game and the line could climb to 7½ points by the 5:30 p.m. kickoff.
“Most of the money is on the Patriots. If you come in late, an hour before the game starts, it may be pushed to 7½,” said South Point oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro. “We might get some buyback from the value guys, but I don’t think there will be crazy buyback. There’s too many things, with the (Patriots’) us-against-the-world mentality.”
In April, New England opened as a 6-point favorite over Pittsburgh. In May, with a Brady suspension looming, the game was taken off the board. When the four-game suspension was announced, the Pats were reposted as 3-point favorites. In July, after Brady’s appeal was denied by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, the line dropped to 2½. When Brady’s suspension was overturned last week by U.S. federal judge Richard Berman, New England was made a touchdown favorite.
“It’s been a circus really for the past 90 days, which hurt betting in general. Once we found out he was gonna play, it was an easy number to make,” Vaccaro said. “Since people haven’t bet on it the past 90 days, they’ve bet it pretty good. Not so much on straight bets, but teasers and money-line bets have come in droves the past couple days. It’s one of the biggest teaser games we’ve ever come out of the gate with.”
And all the money is on the Pats.
“The next teaser and money-line bet on the Steelers will be the first one we’ve written,” Vaccaro said. “If this had been a Monday night game, it would definitely be the biggest bet game of the weekend. It will be a big decision for the books. I would suggest come game time, the vast majority of books in Nevada will need the Steelers.”
With Brady back in the saddle, the total rose from 48½ to 51½ and could climb higher.
“It would’ve been four points less if Brady weren’t playing,” Vaccaro said. “The brunt of the parlays are going to be Patriots and over. There’ll be no Patriots and under on any parlay cards. You’re paying a price, now that we know Brady’s playing, with the side and total.”
Handicapper Bruce Marshall (goldsheet.com) likes the over.
“I don’t see a lot of value on New England at 7, but (a total of) 52 or so is still a number these teams can clear pretty handily and they’ve done it consistently in recent years,” Marshall said. “I think the move on the over is a little more justified. These have been two strong over teams, especially at home.”
The over is 32-13 in New England’s last 45 home games at Gillette Stadium — where the Pats pounded the Steelers, 55-31, in 2013 — and seven of the last eight meetings between the teams have gone over the total.
“The trends in the series have been over and the dynamics tonight suggest that might happen again,” Marshall said. “Before all the Brady stuff, (New England coach Bill) Belichick this season looked like he’ll be tested again defensively.
“Defensively, there are real questions on both sides, plus the fact that Pittsburgh’s strength is on offense.”
For the first time since 2003, the Steelers won’t have Dick LeBeau calling the plays on defense and Troy Polamalu is gone as well after retiring. Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown will key a high-powered Pittsburgh offense this season, but the Steelers will be without suspended running back Le’Veon Bell and receiver Martavis Bryant today, as well as injured center Maurkice Pouncey.
New England will have to replace cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner and defensive tackle Vince Wilfork and today will be missing injured center Bryan Stork and receiver Brandon LaFell and suspended running back LeGarrette Blount.
However, Brady will have his top weapons at his disposal in tight end Rob Gronkowski and receiver Julian Edelman and New England features a fearsome front seven on defense. Playing in front of a raucous crowd, it promises to be a Super Bowl banner night for the Patriots.
The pick: Patriots 34, Steelers 24.
