One favorable favorite
Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy is remembered for his hot-tempered rant at the media four years ago. But college football bettors also know him as a great favorite.
Since Gundy took over in 2005, the Cowboys have been listed as the favorite 43 times. In those games, they covered the spread at a remarkable 30-12-1 clip.
Oklahoma State is a 14-point home favorite over Baylor today, and I’ll be laying the points in what shapes up as a high-scoring game. The total is 79½ to 80.
Led by quarterback Brandon Weeden, a former pro baseball player, and Justin Blackmon, one of the nation’s top wide receivers, the Cowboys are averaging 48.6 points per game.
Look for Oklahoma State to fly over its scoring average against a porous Bears defense that allowed 55 points to Texas A&M, 48 to Texas Christian, 36 to Kansas State and 31 to Rice.
Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III will make plenty of plays, too, and probably lead his team to 31 to 35 points. But it won’t matter because I expect the Cowboys to hang at least 60.
Three more plays for today (home team in CAPS):
■ Florida-Georgia (Under 49) — In three of Georgia’s past four games, the combined scores have been 40 points or fewer. Even when Tennessee quarterback Tyler Bray was healthy, the Bulldogs won a 20-12 decision.
As for the Gators, they scored 10, 11 and six points in their past three games. Obviously, those putrid performances came with senior quarterback John Brantley and running back Jeff Demps mostly on the sideline with injuries. Both are back this week, but are they completely healthy? Regardless, I like this game in Jacksonville, Fla., to stay under the number.
■ Southern Methodist-TULSA (Over 58) — We’re getting excellent line value for an ‘over’ play thanks to Southern Mississippi limiting SMU to three points last week. Otherwise, this total might have been posted in the mid-60s. The Mustangs had scored 38 points or more in their previous four games. Tulsa, which has scored 37 or more in its past three, has one of the nation’s most underrated quarterbacks in G.J. Kinne.
■ Stanford-SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (Over 61) — USC’s defense has played better recently, but it hasn’t been going up against Andrew Luck. Stanford scored 65 points last week and averages 48.6 per game. Luck has an incredible 20-to-3 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio, and the Cardinal also have a lethal ground attack led by Stepfan Taylor.
Trojans quarterback Matt Barkley is enjoying an excellent season, passing for 19 touchdowns compared with four interceptions. I’m expecting a shootout.
Last week: 1-4 against the spread
Season: 20-12-2
Brian Edwards of VegasInsider.com and BrianEdwardsSports.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
