NFL Week 13 Capsules
By BOB CHRIST
SPECIAL TO THE LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
SUNDAY’S GAMES
New Orleans (8-3) at Cincinnati (2-9)
TIME: 10 a.m. LINE: Saints -6½ TOTAL: 45½
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: Mid-30s, 40 percent chance of precipitation
■ FACTS: The Bengals’ comeback attempt against the Jets last week amounted to minus-4 yards their final 11 plays and giving up a safety. … New Orleans is getting healthier: RB Reggie Bush came back on Thanksgiving, TE Jeremy Shockey (ribs) has returned and safety Darren Sharper (hamstring), who had nine INTs last year, is likely to return. … If you wagered that the defending AFC North champion Bengals would win the Super Bowl, go ahead and shred that ticket.
■ ANALYSIS: The Bengals have too much veteran star ego to embrace playing the spoiler. And since the Saints have a buzz-saw closing schedule (Baltimore, Atlanta, Tampa Bay), they won’t miss a chance to quickly demoralize these guys behind Drew Brees’ precision throws against a beat-up secondary.
■ FORECAST: Saints 35, Bengals 14
Chicago (8-3) at Detroit (2-9)
TIME: 10 a.m. LINE: Bears -4½ TOTAL: 43½
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: Indoors
■ FACTS: The Lions’ QB du jour is Drew Stanton, who is filling in for Shaun Hill (out, finger), who was filling in for Matthew Stafford (out, shoulder). … The Lions are fresh off a 45-24 Thanksgiving loss to New England in which they blew a 14-3 lead. But the good news: Teams are 4-0 against the spread this year after midseason Thursday games. Also, over the past two years, teams coming off the extended Thanksgiving break are 9-1 ATS the next week against teams without that break. … Chicago beat visiting Detroit 19-14 in the opener as a 6½-point pick, but largely because Lions WR Calvin Johnson began celebrating a decisive TD catch before securing the ball long enough to suit the NFL.
■ ANALYSIS: It’s unlikely the Lions will have much of a home-field advantage, especially if Chicago fans make the short trek to Ford Field. Plus, Chicago showed its worth last week in beating the Eagles and causing QB Michael Vick to fumble four times and throw an INT. At one point, the Bears played keepaway with a 17-play TD drive that lasted 10:05.
■ FORECAST: Bears 21, Lions 7
San Francisco (4-7) at Green Bay (7-4)
TIME: 10 a.m. LINE: Packers – 9½ TOTAL: 41
RADIO: KXNT-FM (100.5)
■ Weather: High-20s, 30 percent chance of snow
■ FACTS: This shapes up as the coldest game of the year so far. In the 2009 regular season, home teams were 11-3 against the spread when the temperature at kickoff was 32 degrees or colder. … Despite their disparate records, the 49ers and Packers are both one game out of first in their divisions. … Before RB Frank Gore (out, broken hip) left the field Monday at Arizona, he had rushed for 853 of the 49ers’ 885 ground yards this season. Backup Brian Westbrook came through with 136 yards on 23 carries Monday. … The Packers have had four leading rushers their past four games. On Sunday, it was QB Aaron Rodgers with 51 yards in a 20-17 loss in Atlanta.
■ ANALYSIS: The Packers deserved a better fate against NFC South-leading Atlanta. Early on, they had dominating drives of 80 and 83 yards (good for three points total) against a unit that’s better than San Francisco’s. And good luck to 49ers QB Troy Smith getting a grip on a frosty ball. Plus, San Francisco kicker Joe Nedney is out (knee) and Steelers castoff Jeff Reed is in.
■ FORECAST: Packers 28, 49ers 13
Jacksonville (6-5) at Tennessee (5-6)
TIME: 10 a.m. LINE: Titans -3½ TOTAL: 43½
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: Low 40s, clear
■ FACTS: For the second straight week, the Titans face the league’s worst-rated pass defense. On Sunday, behind rookie QB Rusty Smith, they were shut out by Houston. This week Kerry Collins (questionable, calf) is expected back. … The Titans won their Week 6 meeting with the Jaguars at Nashville, 30-3. Jacksonville QB David Garrard (probable, left wrist) was knocked out with a concussion. … Titans RB Chris Johnson, who had 5 yards on seven carries against the Texans, had 111 yards in that previous encounter with Tennessee.
■ ANALYSIS: The Jaguars have made a charge behind Maurice Jones-Drew’s four consecutive 100-yard rushing games, but they still have the league’s worst turnover margin at minus-14 and are hard to trust. Collins, now playing with WR Randy Moss, should further expose Jacksonville’s weak secondary.
■ FORECAST: Titans 26, Jaguars 14
Denver (3-8) at Kansas City (7-4)
TIME: 10 a.m. LINE: Chiefs -8½ TOTAL: 48½
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: Mid-30s, clear
■ FACTS: Kansas City hasn’t been this big a favorite since the 2005 finale, when it beat a nothing-to-play-for, playoff-bound Cincinnati squad 37-3 as a 10-point favorite. … Denver sure has missed LB/DE Elvis Dumervil (IR) all season. He had a league-leading 17 sacks in 2009. Through 11 games this year, the Broncos have 16, second fewest in the league. … Three weeks ago, the Broncos came off their bye to wallop the Chiefs 49-29 as a 1-point underdog.
■ ANALYSIS: No team the past four seasons has run the ball as well as the Chiefs, behind RBs Jamaal Charles (6.3 yards per carry) and Thomas Jones, who are averaging 174.3 yards a game. And with bitter feelings no doubt festering from that Week 10 rout, Kansas City might just pour it on against beleaguered coach Josh McDaniels and his Broncos.
■ FORECAST: Chiefs 38, Broncos 16
Cleveland (4-7) at Miami (6-5)
TIME: 10 a.m. LINE: Dolphins -4½ TOTAL: 43
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: Low 80s, 10 percent chance of rain
■ FACTS: The Browns haven’t won in South Florida since 1970, Don Shula’s sixth game as Miami’s coach. … Hard to believe: Cleveland has given the powerhouse Patriots (34-14) and Saints (30-17) their most lopsided losses this season. … The Dolphins had a 14-yard edge in average starting field position (40-26) in their 33-17 victory at Oakland last week. Miami ran 37 more plays than Oakland, too, the third-biggest gap in the NFL this year. … Look for the Browns’ Jake Delhomme to start again at QB in place of rookie Colt McCoy (doubtful, ankle).
■ ANALYSIS: Delhomme might not be such a bad choice now that he can give the ball to a horse like Peyton Hillis. And although the Dolphins didn’t miss WR Brandon Marshall (questionable, hamstring) last week, he probably will be needed Sunday. If he’s only three-quarters speed, that might be good enough to win, but not cover.
■ FORECAST: Dolphins 21, Browns 20
Buffalo (2-9) at Minnesota (4-7)
TIME: 10 a.m. LINE: Vikings -5½ TOTAL: 44½
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: Indoors
■ FACTS: Vikings RB Adrian Peterson (questionable, ankle), the league’s third-leading rusher who already has achieved his fourth straight 1,000-yard season, likely will be a game-day decision. … Buffalo is giving up a league-high 167.4 rushing yards a game, the worst mark in the league since the Colts gave up 173.1 in their 2006 Super Bowl season. … In last week’s 17-13 victory at Washington, interim coach Leslie Frazier’s debut, Minnesota went without a turnover for the first time this season.
■ ANALYSIS: That was a nasty injury Peterson suffered last week, and it kept him out of practice Wednesday and Thursday. It would be wise if the Vikings give their meal ticket a rest in a game that means little. And if that happens, Buffalo, which is on a 2-1 tear, should have little trouble tracking down backup RB Toby Gerhart, who had a long of 6 yards on 22 carries last week.
■ FORECAST: Bills 23, Vikings 17
Washington (5-6) at New York Giants (7-4)
TIME: 10 a.m. LINE: Giants -7 TOTAL: 43
TV: Fox (5)
■ Weather: Low 40s, 30 percent chance of rain
■ FACTS: Last week against Jacksonville, the Giants became the last team this season to score on its opening drive, getting a field goal. Their defense has yielded four opening TD drives. … Washington QB Donovan McNabb has thrown a TD pass in 10 consecutive games. But he’s also thrown an interception in nine straight, a league high. … Washington is the only team that has failed to rush for at least 30 yards twice this season, getting only 29 last week against Minnesota.
■ ANALYSIS: The Giants are coming off a four-game stretch in which their patchwork offensive line hasn’t allowed a sack. No team can match that. Plus, Osi Umenyiora and other guys wearing Super Bowl rings seemed to get the team’s attention during a halftime pep talk last week. That spirit will carry over against a club dealing with injuries to its top two RBs (Clinton Portis, IR) and Ryan Torain (questionable, hamstring).
■ FORECAST: Giants 27, Redskins 14
Oakland (5-6) at San Diego (6-5)
TIME: 1:05 p.m. LINE: Chargers -13 TOTAL: 45
TV/RADIO: CBS (8), KWWN (1100 AM, 98.9 FM)
■ Weather: High 60s, 20 percent chance of rain
■ FACTS: In Week 5, the Raiders jump-started their season when they broke a 13-game losing streak to the visiting Chargers with a 35-27 victory. Two Oakland scores came on a blocked punt and a fumble return. … Oakland is giving up a league-high 13.6 yards per catch. In that Week 5 meeting, the Chargers averaged 16 yards on 27 receptions as Philip Rivers threw for 431 yards. … San Diego is the heaviest favorite this week. In the previous 12 weeks, the biggest favorite has gone 4-8 against the line.
■ ANALYSIS: Rivers is getting many of his receiving weapons back, possibly including Malcom Floyd (questionable, hamstring), who had 213 receiving yards in the teams’ previous meeting. And that was with Oakland standout CB Nnamdi Asomugha (questionable, ankle), who struggled last week against Miami.
■ FORECAST: Chargers 41, Raiders 20
Dallas (3-8) at Indianapolis (6-5)
TIME: 1:15 p.m. LINE: Colts -5½ TOTAL: 47½
TV/RADIO: Fox (5), KXNT-FM (100.5)
■ Weather: Mid-60s, 20 percent chance of rain
■ FACTS: In their last meeting at Dallas in 2006, Bill Parcells’ Cowboys won 21-14 in a pick-em game against the 9-0 Colts. … Indy QB Peyton Manning has thrown seven INTs the past two weeks, two more than he had the first nine games. … Two of Dallas’ three touchdowns in a 30-27 Thanksgiving loss to the Saints came after taking possession on New Orleans’ 15 and 39. … Cowboys QB Jon Kitna is completing 65 percent of his passes, his best mark since going 68.9 in a three-game cameo in his 1997 rookie season with Seattle.
■ ANALYSIS: The Cowboys will be getting a jolt of fresh legs with Tashard Choice this week as a replacement for RB Marion Barber (out, calf). And with Manning and the Colts no longer having an invincible aura, coach Jason Garrett’s collection of ex-Pro Bowlers has what it takes to pull the upset.
■ FORECAST: Cowboys 27, Colts 21
St. Louis (5-6) at Arizona (3-8)
TIME: 1:15 p.m. LINE: Rams -3½ TOTAL: 43
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: Low 80s, clear
■ FACTS: This marks the second time in 48 games that St. Louis has been a favorite. … In 2008 and 2009, the Cardinals were 14½- and 16½-point home favorites against the Rams and easily covered. … St. Louis leads the NFC West. The last time a major sports team won a league title despite a losing regular season was when the 1949 Toronto Maple Leafs took the Stanley Cup. … QB Derek “Chuckles” Anderson guided the Cardinals to only eight first downs in Monday’s 27-6 home loss to San Francisco, their worst total the past two seasons. … Arizona has won eight in a row in this series, including this season’s opener 17-13 at St. Louis. It’s the second-longest streak by the Cardinals against anyone. From 1973 to 1978, they beat the Eagles nine straight.
■ ANALYSIS: Last week, the Rams showed they can win on the road in an 36-33 upset victory at Denver. Their confidence is boosted. Arizona, meanwhile, is getting worse, if that’s possible. You’d think a team with the 31st-rated quarterback might give the running game a try, but the Cardinals had a league season-low 11 rushes last week for 13 yards.
■ FORECAST: Rams 34, Cardinals 14
Carolina (1-10) at Seattle (5-6)
TIME: 1:15 p.m. LINE: Seahawks -5½ TOTAL: 40
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: Mid-40s, 20 percent chance of rain
■ FACTS: Since 2004 under coach John Fox, the Panthers are 6-2 west of the Rockies (8-0 against the spread) during the regular season, including a 34-21 victory at Arizona last year as a 10-point underdog. But Carolina lost at Seattle 34-14 in the 2005 NFC Championship Game. … The Seahawks have allowed 500-plus yards of total offense three times this season, more than anyone. … Dating to 2007, the Panthers failed to score a TD the past 43 times they’ve started a possession inside their 10-yard line, the longest drought in the league. … No team rushes for fewer yards a game than Seattle (77.9).
■ ANALYSIS: It’s a battle of have-nots, although Seattle shares the NFC West lead despite being outscored by 66 points. Carolina, meanwhile, showed fire last week with the return of RB Jonathan Stewart in a close-call 24-23 loss at Cleveland.
■ FORECAST: Panthers 23, Seahawks 20
Atlanta (9-2) at Tampa Bay (7-4)
TIME: 1:15 p.m. LINE: Falcons -3 TOTAL: 44½
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: Low 70s, 30 percent chance of rain
■ FACTS: The Bucs had a league-low eight sacks through nine games, but have 10 in the past two, including six at San Francisco in their 21-0 shutout in Week 11. … When Atlanta QB Matt Ryan led the Falcons to the 2008 postseason as a rookie, the Falcons had the 25th-rated run defense. Now they’re seventh, giving up 93.7 yards a game. … Tampa Bay will break out its original creamsicle jerseys for this one.
■ ANALYSIS: The road warrior Buccaneers are 6-0 against the spread away from home, but only 1-3-1 at home. But now that Tampa Bay rookie DT Gerald McCoy is making the Buccaneers’ defensive front something to fear, there’s been a significant uptick in performance.
■ FORECAST: Buccaneers 24, Falcons 20
Pittsburgh (8-3) at Baltimore (8-3)
TIME: 5:20 p.m. LINE: Ravens -3 TOTAL: 40
TV/RADIO: NBC (3), KWWN (1100 AM, 98.9 FM)
■ Weather: Low 40s, 10 percent chance of rain
■ FACTS: The Ravens won in Week 4 at Pittsburgh, 17-14 as a 2-point underdog, but last-resort QB Charlie Batch was in charge for the Steelers. In the teams’ 16 meetings before that, the home team is 14-2. … Last week against Buffalo, and for the second time in three games, Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger (questionable, foot) was sacked five times. … Baltimore safety Ed Reed has 50 career interceptions, but none against Big Ben. … The Steelers have won their past two games despite having a cumulative minus-195-yard differential in penalty yards.
■ ANALYSIS: Pittsburgh, with its two original starting offensive tackles on injured reserve, has been awful protecting the passer the past weeks and hasn’t come close to obeying football rules. Baltimore appears to be far more disciplined and has a relatively healthy QB in Joe Flacco.
■ FORECAST: Ravens 23, Steelers 14
MONDAY’S GAME
New York Jets (9-2) at New England (9-2)
TIME: 5:30 p.m. LINE: Patriots -3½ TOTAL: 45½
TV/RADIO: ESPN (30), KWWN (1100 AM, 98.9 FM)
■ Weather: Low 40s, 10 percent chance of rain
■ FACTS: New England has yielded more than 400 yards in five straight games, but still went 4-1. During their perfect 2007 regular season, the Patriots never allowed 400. … The Jets beat the Patriots 28-14 in Week 2 while gaining only 336 yards, the fewest New England has allowed all season. … The Patriots had three TD drives of 83-plus yards last week at Detroit, the most by any team in a game all season.
■ ANALYSIS: The teams with the best records in the AFC collide with home-field advantage through the playoffs at stake, and who better to trust than the NFL’s second-rated passer, Patriots QB Tom Brady. Over the past six weeks, he has thrown 13 touchdown passes and no interceptions, and hasn’t lost a regular-season home game since 2006 — to the Jets.
■ FORECAST: Patriots 34, Jets 27
Last week: 9-7 vs. spread; 11-5 straight up
Season total: 94-76-6 (.553) vs. spread; 110-65 (.625) straight up
