NFL Week 12 Capsules
SUNDAY’S GAMES
Minnesota (3-7) at Washington (5-5)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Redskins -1 Total: 43
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: High 40s, clear
■ Facts: Washington’s last-ranked defense is yielding 411.1 yards a game. That’s the NFL’s worst season-long pace since the 1983 Packers. … Since the Vikings opened 9-1 last season en route to a No. 2 playoff seed, they have gone 5-10 (5-9-1 against the spread). Now, defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier takes over for fired coach Brad Childress. … Seven Redskins were knocked out of last week’s 19-16 overtime victory at Tennessee, including RB Clinton Portis (injured reserve, groin). … In that game, the Redskins ran 86 plays to the Titans’ 51. That 35-play gap is the third-biggest for any team this season.
■ Analysis: Although Frazier is sticking with graybeard QB Brett Favre, the league’s 32nd-rated passer, you can count on workhorse RB Adrian Peterson, the NFL’s No. 2 rusher, getting more than the 14 carries he got last week. And he’ll be going against the worst defense he’s seen since he was at Oklahoma.
■ Forecast: Vikings 27, Redskins 20
Pittsburgh (7-3) at Buffalo (2-8)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Steelers -6½ Total: 43
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: High 30s, 10 percent chance of rain
■ Facts: The Steelers routed the Raiders 35-3 last week despite committing 108 more yards in penalties than Oakland. That’s the greatest differential overcome in a victory this season. … Teams coming off victories of 30-plus points are 11-1 against the line in their next regular-season outing dating to last season. … The Bills had four consecutive touchdown drives last week at Cincinnati in rallying from a 21-point deficit to win, 49-31. They hadn’t had more than two in a row before that.
■ Analysis: Pittsburgh’s margin of victory last week is misleading — because it could have been worse. Twice the Steelers punted after starting a drive inside the Raiders’ 34. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s victory was more a product of Cincinnati’s ineptitude and lack of desire than great strides by the Bills. And you know Steelers fans will make the Bills feel like they’re on the road.
■ Forecast: Steelers 30, Bills 19
Tennessee (5-5) at Houston (4-6)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Texans -6½ Total: 45
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: Mid-70s, clear
■ Facts: Rookie Rusty Smith, a sixth-round draft pick from Florida Atlantic, makes his first start in place of Vince Young (injured reserve, thumb) and Kerry Collins (questionable, calf). Smith guided the Titans to 161 yards of total offense on his five drives against Washington last week, but for only three points. … Despite the Texans’ back-to-back crushing road losses to the Jaguars and Jets in the final seconds, they enter Sunday as the heaviest favorites they have been this season. … Tennessee didn’t score an offensive TD against a Redskins defense that allowed Eagles QB Michael Vick to direct seven touchdown drives in Washington’s previous game.
■ Analysis: The Titans’ offense should do just fine against a Houston unit that has given up at least 24 points in 11 straight games and has the worst defensive passer rating of anyone the past two seasons. Plus, it’s not like defending rushing champion Chris Johnson was affected by the QB switch last week, for he averaged 8.2 yards a carry on 10 rushes while Smith played. Could be a nail-biter again.
■ Forecast: Texans 27, Titans 24
Jacksonville (6-4) at N.Y. Giants (6-4)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Giants -7 Total: 44½
TV: CBS (8)
■ Weather: High 40s, clear
■ Facts: The Giants lead the league in turnovers with 30; in 1979 the Steelers had 52 giveaways en route to their fourth Super title. … In three games this year a team won despite a turnover differential of minus-3 or worse. The Jaguars have done it twice, including last week’s 24-20 victory over Cleveland with a negative-5. … New York, on a two-game skid, has demoted Ahmad Bradshaw, the NFL leader with 10 rushes of 20-plus yards, but also with a league-worst six fumbles. Brandon Jacobs fills in. … Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew (questionable, abdomen) has three consecutive 100-yard rushing games, a career high. … Giants DE Osi Umenyiora (probable, knee) is tops with seven forced fumbles, but none in the past four games.
■ Analysis: Jaguars QB David Garrard is the sixth-rated passer and has his team atop the AFC South. But he’s feasted on teams ranked in the bottom five in defensive passer rating with 12 TDs and one interception in those games. Against teams in the top 10, he has one touchdown pass and six INTs. The Giants’ unit is ranked eighth, and Garrard’s favorite target, Mike Sims-Walker (questionable, ankle), might miss his second straight game.
■ Forecast: Giants 31, Jaguars 13
Carolina (1-9) at Cleveland (3-7)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Browns -10 Total: 37½
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: Low 40s, clear
■ Facts: Last week, the Browns were 24-20 losers at Jacksonville despite a plus-5 turnover edge. They are the first team to lose with that advantage since host Buffalo fell to Dallas 25-24 in 2007. … QB Jake Delhomme (ankle) will start for Cleveland against his old team after being out most of the season. Colt McCoy is doubtful (ankle). … Rookie QB Jimmy Clausen is back for Carolina (probable, concussion). In three of his six significant appearances, his passer rating was below 34. A QB would be at 39.6 with all incompletions. … Cleveland started three possessions in Jaguars territory last week, but its most productive drive was 2 yards.
■ Analysis: Clausen gets the job by default after Brian St. Pierre (probable, right shoulder), in his first career start, threw two wrong-way TDs to Baltimore last week. With workhorse RB Jonathan Stewart (probable, concussion) expected back, the Panthers should stay close thanks to the league’s 14th-rated defense.
■ Forecast: Browns 16, Panthers 13
Green Bay (7-3) at Atlanta (8-2)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Falcons -2 Total: 47½
TV/RADIO: Fox (5)
■ Weather: Indoors
■ Facts: In three games since their bye, the NFC South-leading Falcons are 3-0 and have run 53 more plays than the opposition. … The Packers’ victories in their past two games were so resounding, against Dallas and Minnesota, those teams fired their head coaches the next day. Atlanta’s Mike Smith seems safe. … Only 38 penalties have been marched off against the Falcons, fewest in the league. Green Bay had 18 in Week 3 alone in a 20-17 loss to Chicago. … The Falcons go on a three-game road trip starting next week.
■ Analysis: If not for that intercepted shovel pass near the goal line that turned around the game at St. Louis, Atlanta might not be 8-2 and favored against a steamrolling Packers team that has defeated two other division leaders on the road — Eagles and Jets.
■ Forecast: Packers 30, Falcons 21
Miami (5-5) at Oakland (5-5)
Time: 1:05 p.m. Line: Raiders -3 Total: 39½
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: High 50s, 10 percent chance of rain
■ Facts: Good news for Oakland: Teams coming off games against the Steelers are 8-0 vs. the spread this year. … Miami, 4-1 on the road, is waffling on its starting QB: Tyler Thigpen, who was shut out in Week 11 by Chicago, or recently benched and battered Chad Henne (questionable, knee). … The Raiders’ starting field position last week at Pittsburgh was their 19, compared with the Steelers’ at their 39. That 20-yard gap matched the biggest in any game this year. … Miami tied for the second fewest rushing attempts (13) in a game this year during its 16-0 Thursday night loss to Chicago.
■ Analysis: Miami’s offensive line is in trouble. Anchor LT Jake Long (probable, shoulder) is restricted considerably and gave up three sacks last week. And the Dolphins’ top center, Joe Berger, is questionable (knee). Top that off with WR Brandon Marshall (doubtful) missing practice all week. Oakland snaps back promptly from its over-in-a-hurry loss last week.
■ Forecast: Raiders 28, Dolphins 16
Kansas City (6-4) at Seattle (5-5)
Time: 1:05 p.m. Line: Chiefs -1½ Total: 44½
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: Low 40s, 30 percent chance of rain
■ Facts: Kansas City RB Jamaal Charles, who has 848 rushing yards, is averaging a league-best 6.1 yards a carry. The best for any 1,000-yard running back the previous 12 seasons was his 5.9 norm last year. … Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch might be getting even fewer carries after losing two fumbles on only seven rushes (for 36 yards) last week at New Orleans. … Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe is tied for the league lead with 11 TD receptions, with 10 coming in the past six games.
■ Analysis: Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck has thrown for 333 and 366 yards the past two weeks, with Mike Williams making a total of 17 catches for 254 yards. But Williams (questionable, foot) doesn’t appear likely to play. That tilts the field toward the Chiefs and their dominating running game and Matt Cassel, the league’s seventh-leading passer.
■ Forecast: Chiefs 28, Seahawks 21
Tampa Bay (7-3) at Baltimore (7-3)
Time: 1:15 p.m. Line: Ravens -7½ Total: 41
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: High 40s, clear
■ Facts: Tampa Bay, which has a league-high five games without a sack this season, made six last week in a 21-0 victory at San Francisco. … Through six weeks, Baltimore had the league’s No. 3 defense, allowing 280.1 yards per game. The Ravens have dropped to eighth, allowing 356 yards an outing. … Tampa Bay is 7-0 against the spread in road games dating to last season, 6-1 straight-up. … The Bucs have faced only two QBs rated higher than Baltimore’s Joe Flacco, who’s 15th. No. 12 Matt Ryan and No. 13 Drew Brees teamed to score 58 points against Tampa Bay in a pair of Bucs losses.
■ Analysis: The slap at the Bucs is they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record. Well, neither did St. Louis in 1999 until it reached the postseason and won the Super Bowl. Bucs QB Josh Freeman continues to be a cool customer on the road and should keep his team close to a Ravens club that hasn’t covered in its past three games when this heavily favored.
■ Forecast: Ravens 28, Buccaneers 26
Philadelphia (7-3) at Chicago (7-3)
Time: 1:15 p.m. Line: Eagles -3 Total: 42½
TV: Fox (5)
■ Weather: Mid-40s, 10 percent chance of rain
■ Facts: This is the fifth straight time Philadelphia has been a favorite at Chicago dating to 2002, going 3-1 (2-2 against the spread). … The Eagles have settled for field goals the past three times they started a possession inside their opponent’s 25. … The Bears have held a league-high three foes to fewer than 190 yards of offense. All other NFL teams have totaled 14 such games. … The Eagles entered Week 12 with 26 takeaways, tops in the league, but might be without CB Asante Samuel (questionable, knee), the league leader with seven interceptions. The Bears are next with 25 takeaways.
■ Analysis: Bears QBs were sacked 31 times in the first four games, but Jay Cutler has gone down only five times in the past three outings in going 3-0. Cutler surely will be delighted to know Samuel is ailing. Defensively, Chicago has enough team speed to pose problems QB Michael Vick hasn’t seen this season.
■ Forecast: Bears 26, Eagles 21
St. Louis (4-6) at Denver (3-7)
Time: 1:15 p.m. Line: Broncos -4 Total: 44½
TV/RADIO: None
■ Weather: Mid-40s, clear
■ Facts: The Broncos have been outrushed by 68.1 yards a game, the worst differential in the league. In the passing game, Denver has yielded at least 7.6 yards per drop-back the past four games. In its first six, its worst yield was 7.6. … St. Louis, which has lost its past seven games away from home dating to last season, is commencing a three-game road trip. … In Denver’s past four games, enemy QBs have had a passer rating of 115-plus, which has dropped the Broncos’ unit from an already-awful 24th on the charts to 29th.
■ Analysis: The Broncos’ offensive line and their top RB, Knowshon Moreno, haven’t been healthy until recently. And this is the same Rams team that lost at Detroit 44-6 only seven weeks ago. Last week’s showdown home loss to Atlanta surely has taken a motivational toll on the Rams and their rookie QB, Sam Bradford.
■ Forecast: Broncos 27, Rams 14
San Diego (5-5) at Indianapolis (6-4)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Line: Colts -3 Total: 52
TV/RADIO: NBC (3), KBAD-AM (920)
■ Weather: Indoors
■ Facts: The Chargers, on a three-game winning streak, are the only team against which FG kickers are perfect, going 16-for-16. San Diego kickers are 11-for-15 (73.3), tied for fifth-worst percentage. … The Colts are at home and catching San Diego on a short week, but teams in this scenario are only 4-5 against the line this season. … The Chargers have a minus-10 turnover differential their past six games. Even Minnesota hasn’t been that bad. … Indianapolis might not have to face San Diego TE Antonio Gates (questionable, foot), who reportedly complained about incredible pain after a recent practice.
■ Analysis: With six games to go, both teams enter Sunday in the same boat, a game out of the division lead and an accompanying playoff berth. But the Colts and QB Peyton Manning surely are the more desperate squad, considering the strength of the AFC South and the fact it’s their home game.
■ Forecast: Colts 31, Chargers 24
MONDAY’S GAME
San Francisco (3-7) at Arizona (3-7)
Time: 5:30 p.m. Line: 49ers -1 Total: 40
TV/RADIO: ESPN (30), KWWN (1100 AM, 98.9 FM)
■ Weather: Mid-50s, clear
■ Facts: The 49ers have had two of their grittiest efforts in prime time this year, losing at home to New Orleans 25-22 and Philadelphia 27-24. … Arizona, the two-time defending NFC West champion, was swept by San Francisco last season. … 49ers QB Troy Smith, a starter for the fourth straight game, has been sacked 11 times on 89 drop-backs. That 12.2 percent rate is the worst for any current starter. … The past three QBs to face Arizona had their second best passer-rating day of the year. … 49ers RB Frank Gore had his worst output of the season last week against Tampa Bay (13 carries, 23 yards). But the last time he faced Arizona, he had 167 rushing yards, his finest day since Week 2 last season.
■ Analysis: The Cardinals have shown little life since blowing that late 14-point lead at Minnesota three weeks ago. Even the score in last week’s 31-13 loss at Kansas City was misleading, since Arizona got its only TD on the last play. The 49ers might not be much better than the Cardinals, but coach Mike Singletary’s volatile nature should give his guys just the right jolt of adrenaline.
■ Forecast: 49ers 33, Cardinals 24
Last week: 12-3-1 vs. spread; 14-2 straight up
Season total: 85-69-6 (.552) vs. spread; 99-61 straight up (.618)
