NFL Betting Breakdown: Doug Fitz
Cincinnati (2-3) at New England (4-1)
Time/TV: 10 a.m., KLAS (8)
Line/Total: Patriots -7½, 47½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: Tom Brady would like nothing better in his home debut than to continue where he left off last week in Cleveland, where he completed 28 of 40 passes for 406 yards with an average of 10.2 yards per attempt. The Patriots are averaging 128 rushing yards, so their offense is balanced. The Cincinnati defense was pushed around last week in a blowout loss at Dallas.
By the numbers: Andy Dalton ranks third in the NFL with 1,503 yards passing, but the Bengals have struggled to run the ball, ranking 26th at 83.8 yards per game. … The Patriots are 13-6 against the spread at home the past three seasons, including 7-2-3 since last year and 5-1-3 when Brady starts.
Fitz’s pick: Patriots by 13
Baltimore (3-2) at New York Giants (2-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Giants -3½, 44½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: To say the Eli Manning-led New York offense is struggling would be a big understatement. The Giants have scored 89 points in their five games, a 17.8 average that ranks 27th in the league. The Giants average only 83.6 yards rushing, and they have a minus-7 turnover margin. The New York defense has only four sacks to rank last in the NFL. The Ravens are not much better in the running game, and their passing game is pedestrian. The Baltimore defense allows only 190.8 yards through the air, which should be a significant factor considering the Giants have trouble running and will have to rely on Manning’s passing.
By the numbers: The Giants are 1-4 ATS, with a four-game losing skid. … As a road underdog of three points or fewer, Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco is 10-6-2 ATS.
Fitz’s pick: Ravens by 3
Carolina (1-4) at New Orleans (1-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Panthers -3, 53½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: The Panthers have done their part to keep alive the theory that the Super Bowl loser experiences a hangover. Carolina has played a tough schedule, but Cam Newton and the entire offense looks out of rhythm, and the defense has been a disaster. The Panthers have allowed their opposition to score 135 points, a reversal from last year when the defense led them to Super Bowl 50. Newton is returning from a concussion, and he will need to match big plays with Saints quarterback Drew Brees.
By the numbers: Brees is 9-4 ATS off a bye week. … The Panthers are 1-4 ATS, with a minus-7 turnover margin. … The Saints are 2-2 ATS, with a plus-1 turnover margin.
Fitz’s pick: Saints by 1
Pittsburgh (4-1) at Miami (1-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Steelers -7, 48
Doug Fitz’s analysis: With one notable exception — a loss at Philadelphia in Week 3 — the Steelers have dominated their competition with an offense that’s clicking on all cylinders. The Miami defense is pathetic, ranking 28th in the league, and the offense ranks 29th. The Dolphins’ offensive line is not protecting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who’s running for his life most times he drops back to pass. Playing road favorites in the NFL is not a road to riches in general, but this should be an exception.
By the numbers: The Dolphins average 72.4 yards on the ground to rank 31st in rushing offense. … Miami is 1-4 ATS with a minus-7 turnover margin. … The Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger leads the league with 15 touchdown passes and ranks fourth with 1,496 yards.
Fitz’s pick: Steelers by 20
Jacksonville (1-3) at Chicago (1-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Bears -1½, 46
Doug Fitz’s analysis: Money is showing on the Jaguars, and I agree with the move. Jacksonville is finally playing on a semi-competitive level, and it appears the wrong team is favored in this game. The Jaguars and quarterback Blake Bortles have improved enough to be able to beat bad teams such as the Bears, but that theory will get tested here.
By the numbers: In two years under coach John Fox, the Bears are 2-8 straight up and ATS at Soldier Field. … Bortles’ passing numbers (seven touchdowns, six interceptions) are mediocre at best, and the Jaguars are a mediocre 2-2-1 ATS. … Brian Hoyer has completed 71.4 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and no interceptions in four games for Chicago. … Hoyer has passed for more than 300 yards in all three starts.
Fitz’s pick: Jaguars by 3
San Francisco (1-4) at Buffalo (3-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Bills -8½, 45
Doug Fitz’s analysis: The 49ers are every bit as bad as their record. The Bills are not quite as good as their record and three-game win streak. Buffalo has found recent success by avoiding and creating turnovers, as its excellent plus-9 turnover margin shows. San Francisco coach Chip Kelly should give up on his grand NFL experiment and go back to college, where he could run a successful fast-paced offense. Kelly is switching to quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who’s probably not much of an upgrade over Blaine Gabbert. This line is too inflated, despite the superiority of the home team.
By the numbers: The 49ers are 2-9 ATS in their past 11 games as road underdogs. … Kaepernick will need to throw to stretch a Buffalo defense that allows an average of 257 yards passing (17th in the league) and 8.0 yards per attempt (25th).
Fitz’s pick: Bills by 4
Los Angeles (3-2) at Detroit (2-3)
Time/TV: 10 a.m., KVVU (5)
Line/Total: Lions -3, 43½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: It’s tough to trust Detroit as a favorite. The Lions have been favored twice this season, and they lost both times, to Tennessee and Chicago. Neither offense has been able to run the ball, although the Rams have more potential to run with Todd Gurley. With both teams unable to establish a running attack, passing should be the order of the day, so this one is likely to go over the total.
By the numbers: Detroit is 4-6-1 ATS in its past 11 home games. … The Lions are 14-20 ATS in their past 34 games after a win when favored in their following game. … Rams quarterback Case Keenum is 9-3 ATS as an underdog. … Keenum has four touchdown passes and five interceptions. … The Lions’ Matthew Stafford has passed for 10 touchdowns with four interceptions.
Fitz’s pick: Rams by 3
Cleveland (0-5) at Tennessee (2-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Titans -7½, 43½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: There is no disputing the Browns are the worst team in the NFL, but the Titans are also in that bottom-feeder category and they should not be favored by a touchdown over anyone. These teams are close statistically, with identical minus-2 turnover margins. If the Browns are going to win a game, this could be it. Cleveland coach Hue Jackson has his team playing hard every week.
By the numbers: Tennessee is 5-18-3 ATS at home since 2013, and 1-5 ATS as a favorite since 2014. … In his second season, Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota has marginal passing numbers (60.6 percent completions, seven touchdowns, five interceptions).
Fitz’s pick: Browns by 3
Philadelphia (3-1) at Washington (3-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Eagles -3, 44½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: This will be a closer game than a majority of the betting public expects. The line has moved in favor of Philadelphia, which opened as a 1-point underdog. The Redskins have played much better the past three weeks, and quarterback Kirk Cousins looks more comfortable. The Eagles are without left tackle Lane Johnson, who begins serving a 10-game suspension. Starting in his place is a rookie, and that could leave the blind side vulnerable for rookie quarterback Carson Wentz.
By the numbers: Washington has won the past three games in this series and has covered the past four. … The Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their past seven games as underdogs. … The Eagles are plus-5 and the Redskins are plus-2 in turnover margin. … Cousins is 7-2 ATS as an underdog against NFC East opponents.
Fitz’s pick: Redskins by 3
Kansas City (2-2) at Oakland (4-1)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Chiefs -2 , 46½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: This game opened with the Raiders as 1-point favorites, but the favorite switched with money coming in on the Chiefs. The line move is justified. Oakland has failed to cover both of its home games. Kansas City is off its bye week after getting humiliated 43-14 at Pittsburgh. Several strong trends favor the Chiefs to right the ship.
By the numbers: Raiders coach Jack Del Rio is 2-8 ATS at home since last year. … The Chiefs are 10-3 ATS as the visitor in this AFC West rivalry, and the road team in the series is 15-5 ATS in the past 20 games. … Chiefs coach Andy Reid is on a 9-4 ATS run off a bye week. … Oakland’s Derek Carr has 11 touchdown passes and two interceptions this season. … Kansas City’s Alex Smith has only five touchdown passes and has been sacked 13 times
Fitz’s pick: Chiefs by 4
Atlanta (4-1) at Seattle (3-1)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Seahawks -6½, 45
Doug Fitz’s analysis: It’s difficult to not take points with the Falcons, who are on a tremendous roll since losing in Week 1. Matt Ryan’s passing and an improved running attack have helped Atlanta win and cover four in a row. The Seahawks, coming off their bye, are on a two-game winning streak against the 49ers and Jets, two weak teams. While the Falcons beat the Broncos in Denver last week, star wideout Julio Jones was barely a factor in the win. That tells me the Falcons are for real and capable of winning in a number of ways.
By the numbers: Off a bye, Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson is 4-7 ATS. … Seattle is 5-5 as a home favorite since last year. … Ryan is 17-9 ATS as a road underdog in nondivision games. … Falcons coach Dan Quinn is 8-1 ATS as an underdog since taking over last year, including 4-0 ATS in the underdog role this year.
Fitz’s pick: Falcons by 3
Dallas (4-1) at Green Bay (3-1)
Time/TV: 1:25 p.m., KVVU (5)
Line/Total: Packers -4½, 47
Doug Fitz’s analysis: I’m sold on Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott. If he were going to have typical rookie problems, it would have happened by now. He has yet to throw an interception in 155 attempts and has completed 69 percent of his passes. Rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott leads the NFL with 546 rushing yards. Green Bay leads the league in rushing defense, so something has to give.
By the numbers: The Cowboys are 2-0 on the road, beating San Francisco and Washington. … The Packers are 2-1-1 ATS, but they have not handled leads well and all of their games have fallen close to the number. … Aaron Rodgers has nine touchdown passes, but some of his other numbers (56.1 percent completions, 876 yards) are way down from recent seasons.
Fitz’s pick: Packers by 3
Indianapolis (2-3) at Houston (3-2)
Time/TV: 5:30 p.m., KSNV (3)
Line/Total: Texans -3, 48
Doug Fitz’s analysis: The Indianapolis offense has been average, and its defense has been disappointing, allowing 131 points in five games. The Houston offense has been erratic with Brock Osweiler throwing seven interceptions. The Texans’ normally strong defense has taken a big hit with the loss of all-everything defensive end J.J. Watt. The Colts, who dominate the technical trends and systems, are in a great spot to win this game.
By the numbers: The Colts are 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven games in this series, and they have covered three straight games at NRG Stadium. … The Colts are 17-10 ATS as regular-season underdogs since 2012. … Division road underdogs in the NFL are 10-5 ATS this season. … Indianapolis’ Andrew Luck has 10 touchdown passes, but he has taken a league-high 20 sacks.
Fitz’s pick: Colts by 7
New York Jets (1-4) at Arizona (2-3)
Time/TV: 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Line/Total: Cardinals -7, 46½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: The Cardinals have turned into poor home favorites — 1-2 ATS this season and 3-6 in that role last year. The Jets have looked terrible while losing their past three games by 18, 10 and 21 points. Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer will return, but the team is 1-3 straight up in his starts. This is a tough game to call. I’ll give a reluctant lean to the Jets only because the line is so high.
By the numbers: The Jets are 1-3-1 ATS with a minus-44 point differential … Ryan Fitzpatrick has been picked off a league-high 10 times. … Palmer has completed 58.8 percent of his passes (63.7 last year) and has only six touchdown passes after throwing for 35 last season.
Fitz’s pick: Cardinals by 6
