New NFL extra-point rule having no effect on spreads in Vegas
The NFL’s new rule that will make an extra-point attempt the equivalent of a 33-yard field goal try next season has thus far had no effect on the league’s point spreads in Las Vegas.
“We don’t think it’s going to make a difference at this point. We haven’t made any adjustments,” Westgate Las Vegas sports book director Jay Kornegay said. “We have the current Week 1 numbers up right now and that includes sides and totals. Those haven’t budged, so I don’t think the sharp minds out there think there’s any advantage at this point in time.”
The NFL revamped the point-after-touchdown rule at its recent spring meeting, pushing back extra-point kick attempts from the 2-yard line to the 15-yard line, making it a 32-to-33-yard try, depending on where the kicker lines up. Two-point conversions will remain on the 2-yard line.
Kickers have successfully converted PATs 99 percent of the time the past five years.
According to ESPN.com, kickers have been successful from the new distance (32 or 33 yards) 91.6 percent of the time over the past 10 years, 94.4 percent the last three seasons and 96.7 percent last season.
In addition, according to Pro Football Focus, kickers have made 97.6 percent of field goal attempts from 30 to 35 yards the past two seasons from the center hash mark, where they’ll line up for PATs.
The success rate for two-point conversions the past 10 seasons has been 47.4 percent and Kornegay believes going for two will give teams a minor edge over teams that opt for the extra-point try.
“There’s an almost 50 percent success rate on two-point conversions in the NFL, but that can be improved if teams practice it a little more often,” he said. “But if you go for eight two-point conversions and eight 33-yard extra-point tries, depending on the numbers you look at, I think there’s a slight advantage going for the two-point conversion.
“We only think the smart coaches will be able to recognize that at this point. The (Bill) Belichicks and (Sean) Paytons. (Chip) Kelly. Those kind of guys are out-of-the-box thinkers. Those guys will probably recognize the advantage of the two-point conversion rather than the 33-yard extra-point try.
“But until it’s played out, I don’t think it will affect the point spread or totals at this time.”
Kornegay said the preseason might be a barometer of whether the new rules will alter teams’ strategies.
“It wouldn’t surprise me with some of these teams, where the best coaches practice or maybe even make all of their conversions two-point tries in the preseason,” he said.
South Point oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro said the new rules haven’t affected the point spreads at his book, either.
“If anything needs to be changed, we’ll see what happens the first two weeks (of the NFL season),” he said. “Being around this racket my entire life, it’s just wait and see. We don’t know who will benefit.
“I would suggest, just an early observation, that nothing drastic will change. Right now, it’s not even a whisper among the guys I hang around with who’ve been doing this for a long time.”
