Falcons built to cover 6 at Titans
A high-powered offense always attracts the betting public, and the Atlanta Falcons have one. First-year coach Dan Quinn is taking the team to the next level by adding a solid defense to the equation.
Atlanta has the NFL’s No. 3 scoring offense at 30.5 points per game, with quarterback Matt Ryan pulling the trigger and Devonta Freeman ranking second in rushing yards with 505 and first in rushing touchdowns with nine. Not to be forgotten is Julio Jones, second in the league with 638 receiving yards. Quinn has constructed the top-ranked rushing defense, which allows 78.8 yards per game.
It all adds up to a 5-1 record for the Falcons, who are 6-point road favorites over the Tennessee Titans (1-4) today. VegasInsider.com handicapper Mark Franco recommends Atlanta as his best bet.
“The Falcons are a vastly improved team relative to last year,” Franco said. “Ryan operates as balanced and potent an offense as there is in the NFL. Quinn has made the defense much stronger.”
The Titans will be without rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota because of a knee injury, so back in steps Zach Mettenberger, who passed for eight touchdowns with seven interceptions in six starts last season. Tennessee went 0-6 in his starts.
Quinn’s start in Atlanta has been vastly different from Ken Whisenhunt’s miserable two seasons in Tennessee.
“The Titans are 3-18 since Whisenhunt took over,” said Franco, who is 17-12-1 in the Westgate SuperContest. “Only one of those wins came at home, and the Titans didn’t even cover the spread in that game, beating Jacksonville by only two points.
“The Falcons will be rested for 10 days after suffering their first loss at New Orleans. I expect their offense to be flying high against the lowly Titans.”
Franco (FrancoSports.com) breaks down the rest of today’s Week 7 schedule:
Buffalo (-4) vs. Jacksonville (at London): I’m not a fan of handicapping the London games because travel and preparation are hard on the coaches and players. The Bills are dealing with several key injuries. EJ Manuel starts at quarterback again with Tyrod Taylor out. I’ll take a pass on this game.
Cleveland at St. Louis (-6½): The Browns have the league’s worst run defense, allowing 149.8 yards per game. The Rams are above average rushing the ball, and look for rookie Todd Gurley (5.7 yards per carry) to have a big day. The Cleveland offense, with Josh McCown at quarterback, has been a surprise by ranking 10th in the league. St. Louis is 6-2 ATS in its past eight games after a bye, and coach Jeff Fisher will have his team ready to go. I like the Rams and over the total (42).
Pittsburgh at Kansas City (-2½): Alex Smith is not the type of quarterback capable of carrying an offense, and now the Chiefs have no running game. Kansas City has lost five in a row. Landry Jones will be the Steelers’ quarterback with Ben Roethlisberger still about a week from returning. Jones was 8 of 12 for 168 yards and two touchdowns in relief of Michael Vick in a 25-13 victory over Arizona last week. The Steelers are 9-1-1 ATS in their past 11 games. The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS versus opponents with a winning record. I’ll lean to Pittsburgh at plus-3.
Houston at Miami (-4½): What a difference a new coach can make, as the Dolphins ripped the Titans last week. But I’m not getting too excited by what Miami showed in one game with Dan Campbell as interim coach. The Texans have been flip-flopping quarterbacks all season, but it looks as if the job will stay with Brian Hoyer. Arian Foster still isn’t running the ball effectively since returning from injury and is averaging 2.3 yards per carry. This line is a little inflated, so I’ll pass on the side, but I see value under the total (45).
New York Jets at New England (-7½): How good are the Patriots? We’ll find out when they face a Jets defense that ranks No. 1 by giving up 269 yards per game. The Jets also are the league’s No. 1 rushing team, with a 146-yard average. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw only seven incompletions and was not sacked last week against Washington. The game of musical chairs along the New England offensive line could prove problematic. The Jets have covered the past four and five of six versus Tom Brady and the Patriots. The Jets provide the Patriots with their toughest test of the season. I’m taking the underdog, but the line has dropped from 9.
Minnesota (-1) at Detroit: The Vikings claimed a 26-16 victory over the Lions on Sept. 20. Detroit finally managed its first win last week against the Bears, and the team built a little confidence with improved play by its two stars, wideout Calvin Johnson and quarterback Matthew Stafford. The Minnesota offensive line did not play well last week and allowed too much penetration from the defensive front. As a result, Adrian Peterson managed only 60 yards on 26 carries. Peterson is questionable with an illness but expected to play. The Vikings have gone under the total in all five games, so under 44½ is the way to go.
Tampa Bay at Washington (-3): After losing their past two games on the road, the Redskins catch Tampa Bay coming off a bye. The Buccaneers have the 31st-ranked scoring defense (29.6 points per game), and I can see the Redskins having success running the ball. At home, Washington has outgained its opponents by 117 yards per game. Tampa Bay is turnover prone with eight on the season — including rookie Jameis Winston’s seven interceptions — and I look for the Washington defense to exploit that. I’ll play on the Redskins at home.
New Orleans at Indianapolis (-4): The Colts have not beaten a team outside of the AFC South. Indianapolis is 3-0 against the division and 0-3 otherwise after a 34-27 loss to New England. This will be a good game to watch with two outstanding quarterbacks in Drew Brees and Andrew Luck. It’s the highest total on the board, and for good reason, as both defenses are statistically poor. Look for lots of passing and for this one to go over the total (52).
Oakland at San Diego (-4): Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is on pace to set single-season NFL records in yards, passing attempts and completions. He has completed 177 of 253 for 2,116 yards, even with a bad offensive line. The Raiders have done a good job of protecting Derek Carr, and he’s getting the ball downfield. San Diego is 4-13 ATS in its past 17 games and 1-7 ATS in its past eight at home. Oakland has covered four of the past five meetings. I’m taking Oakland plus the points coming off the bye, and I have a lean to the over (47).
Dallas at New York Giants (-3½): The desperate Cowboys return after their bye, having lost three straight since Tony Romo went down. Dallas will start quarterback Matt Cassel, who replaces Brandon Weeden, and that’s not a good sign. Wide receiver Dez Bryant is expected to miss the game. The notion that anyone could run behind the Cowboys’ talented offensive line has proven false. The Giants looked horrible against the Eagles on Monday, so I expect a better effort from them in a divisional home game. But I’m not willing to lay the points, so it’s a pass.
Philadelphia at Carolina (-3): Both teams are off big wins last week, but the Panthers had the more impressive one by beating the Seahawks on the road. Carolina is averaging 27 points a game, and the Eagles are averaging 24. Philadelphia quarterback Sam Bradford continues to struggle, throwing a season-worst three interceptions last week, his fourth game with multiple picks. It’s a short week for the Eagles, and going against a solid Carolina defense spells trouble. I’m on the Panthers.
— Compiled by Matt Youmans/Review-Journal
