Defense, Forte can prop up Bears
In desperate need of a quarterback, the Oakland Raiders rolled the dice and did a make-or-break deal for veteran Carson Palmer in October. Whether it was a wise move still is to be determined.
Jay Cutler’s broken right thumb put the Chicago Bears in a similar predicament last week. But the Bears’ new quarterback, Caleb Hanie, already was on their roster, and his most extensive action came in relief in last season’s NFC Championship Game loss to Green Bay.
The Bears (7-3) and Raiders (6-4) will rely on replacements today as the teams try to gain ground in a push toward the playoffs. Oakland is a 3½-point home favorite, after the line inflated to 5 at midweek as a reaction to Cutler’s absence and Hanie’s inexperience.
Bruce Marshall, executive editor of The Gold Sheet and a DonBest.com handicapper, said the underdog is the play mostly because Chicago’s defense and running back Matt Forte can give Hanie the needed support in his first NFL start.
“Cutler’s absence is significant because he had finally come to an amicable arrangement with (offensive coordinator) Mike Martz, who adjusted some of his play calls and scheming for Cutler’s strengths,” Marshall said. “Forte makes this offense go, and that won’t change with Hanie, who opens up a few more things with his ability to run. Forte and the improved defense can carry the Bears in an emotional effort minus Cutler.”
Chicago is on a five-game win and cover streak. Oakland, which lost its past two home games to Denver and Kansas City, is 4-4 against the spread as a home favorite since last year and previously had dropped 10 straight in that role.
It appears the Raiders will miss several injured players, including running back Darren McFadden.
“I prefer the hot Bears plus the points,” said Marshall, who also leans over the total of 41 to 41½.
Marshall (goldsheet.com) breaks down the rest of today’s Week 12 schedule:
■ Arizona at St. Louis (-2½): After looking serviceable in relief of Kevin Kolb — if not better than Kolb — Cardinals quarterback John Skelton took a big step back last week in a loss at San Francisco. Kolb’s status still is up in the air, which means Skelton probably gets thrown back into the fire. Arizona’s best offense these days is to get Patrick Peterson returning a punt. I don’t like the Cardinals playing their third straight on the road, and they were fortunate to win the first meeting with the Rams on Nov. 6. St. Louis probably turns the tables, but that’s a weak vote. The stronger preference is under the total (39½), following the pattern of seven straight “unders” in the series.
■ Buffalo at New York Jets (-9½): The Jets are not the most trustworthy favorite. But multiple system failures on offense and defense make it hard to trust the Bills, who have fallen into the abyss in a three-game meltdown while being outscored by an average of 35-9 in those losses. Buffalo’s Ryan Fitzpatrick has spiraled downward the past three weeks with seven interceptions and two touchdown passes. Running back Fred Jackson is out now, too, and the defense has collapsed after injuries to Kyle Williams and Shawne Merriman. Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez continues to blow hot and cold. But New York has dominated Buffalo, winning and covering the past three meetings by a 34-11 average score. The series trend and the Bills’ recent slump are hard to overlook. Go with the home favorite.
■ Cleveland at Cincinnati (-7): Rookie quarterback Andy Dalton is beginning to wobble with five interceptions in his past two games, but he also kept the Bengals in the hunt against the Steelers and Ravens. The Cincinnati defense is still the best platoon on this field, and the Browns’ offense is unsightly. It’s unbelievable that Cleveland has four wins — it’s the NFL version of Penn State as the league’s most-deceiving record. I can’t trust the Browns to score enough points to get inside the number. The Bengals and the under (37½) look to be the calls, though it’s not a strong opinion either way.
■ Houston (-6½) at Jacksonville: We need more convincing that Texans quarterback Matt Leinart is up to the task. His lack of maturity was a big reason coach Ken Whisenhunt got rid of him in Arizona. But this week, at least, Leinart seems to be facing a perfect opponent, because the Jaguars can’t score (12.5 points per game) and rookie Blaine Gabbert has a mere six TD passes. Leinart also has top-notch runners Arian Foster and Ben Tate to carry the offensive load, plus wide receiver Andre Johnson should be available. So Leinart just has to manage the game and let Wade Phillips’ AFC-leading defense set him up with good field position. Houston is worth a look, as is the under (37) since Jacksonville has gone that way nine times out of 10.
■ Carolina (-3½) at Indianapolis: Peyton Manning could be the first league Most Valuable Player in absentia. It’s amazing how that operation has unraveled in his absence. This might look like a decent chance for the Colts to get a win, but they seem to be getting worse as the season progresses after a few decent efforts versus the Steelers, Buccaneers and Chiefs. Indianapolis has failed to cover six in a row. Rookie quarterback Cam Newton has bounced back strongly from some of his previous mistake-filled efforts, and the Panthers are lively if nothing else. This is a lean to Carolina.
■ Tampa Bay at Tennessee (-3½): Both teams are almost out of the playoff discussion, and the loser can forget about it. The Buccaneers are hoping an improved Josh Freeman effort last week at Green Bay, where he passed for 342 yards, suggests he is ready to break from a season-long slump in which he has thrown 15 picks and 11 TD passes. LeGarrette Blount is back and running hard for the Bucs. The Titans have been inconsistent, and I’m not sure what to make of running back Chris Johnson. I lean slightly to Tampa Bay.
■ Minnesota at Atlanta (-9): Vikings running back Adrian Peterson is out with an ankle injury, and Toby Gerhart is unlikely to do much against a good Falcons run defense. That means Minnesota’s chances are almost solely up to rookie quarterback Christian Ponder. Although he gives the Vikings a better chance than they had with Donovan McNabb, Ponder still is prone to mistakes and makes Minnesota a risky proposition. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan had one of his best games of the season last week. The Falcons are desperate to stay in the postseason mix. This is a lean to Atlanta and the under (44½). The Falcons are 7-3 “under” this season.
■ Washington at Seattle (-3½): The Seahawks are favored for the first time this season, and the Redskins have not won since before the NHL season began. Seattle is looking better lately, as Tarvaris Jackson is resembling a real NFL quarterback, and note that coach Pete Carroll quietly has covered seven of his past eight. But Washington’s defense can keep the Seattle offense in check, and the better side of quarterback Rex Grossman is good enough to give the Redskins a look. I like the underdog a lot and lean to the under (37½).
■ New England (-3½) at Philadelphia: I am on the side of Patriots coach Bill Belichick in this one, especially since the Eagles have been so erratic. It looks like more Vince Young at quarterback for Philadelphia, so let’s see if coach Andy Reid can coax another big effort out of him. Belichick has patched together his back seven on defense to the point it’s not a hindrance any longer. I need to see more evidence about the upgrades on the Eagles defense, which made staff adjustments last month after new coordinator Juan Castillo looked hopelessly overmatched in the first several games. Philadelphia is sitting at 4-6 for a reason. This is a strong vote for Belichick.
■ Denver at San Diego (-6): There are so many sidebar stories to this one, above and beyond the Tim Tebow phenomenon. Chargers coach Norv Turner must be at the end of his rope, and Philip Rivers has been a mess, with more interceptions (17) already than in any season in his career. San Diego has not won since the first Denver game on Oct. 9, the watershed game of the year for both teams with Tebow on in relief that day and almost rallying the Broncos to a win. Still, the Chargers have won and covered the past four meetings. The Tebow factor remains hard to quantify except the fact he has so many intangibles that seem to manifest in crunch time, and he seems to have a contagious effect on his teammates. Denver’s defense, which sacked Rivers five times in the first meeting, also is improved with linebacker Von Miller making a bid for Rookie of the Year honors. The Broncos have won at Kansas City, Oakland and Miami. Regardless of recent series trends, I’ll ride the Tebow factor another week and go with the underdog over the fading Chargers and their 2-8 spread record.
■ Pittsburgh (-10½) at Kansas City: The Chiefs are not much, but I’m not too thrilled laying so many points on the road with the Steelers, who have been somewhat unreliable as road favorites by going 7-8 in their past 15 in the role. The thumb injury to Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger can’t be a positive. The Steelers are not running as consistently this season, becoming more of a finesse team. I lean slightly to the Chiefs.
COMPILED BY MATT YOUMANS/REVIEW-JOURNAL
