American Pharoah heavy favorite to win Preakness
Let the hype begin. American Pharoah has the opportunity to give horse racing a major publicity bump today when he headlines a field of eight in the Preakness Stakes.
With a win, the son of Pioneer of the Nile gives the sport a three-week promotional tour leading up to the Belmont in New York. But first things first.
Firing Line ran his eyeballs out in the Kentucky Derby, finally giving in to American Pharoah in the final furlong. Legendary jockey Gary Stevens aboard Firing Line and Martin Garcia guiding Dortmund set pedestrian fractions for a Derby and both had plenty left in the tank for the stretch run. It was not a dominant win by American Pharoah visually, but he certainly had the answer for a pair of top-flight horses when the serious running began.
Today’s race at Pimlico is shorter and features tighter turns. American Pharoah got the absolute worst of it at the post position draw, as he will break from the rail. Positioning out of the gate will be critical to the outcome. The good news for jockey Victor Espinoza is he can fire to the front or take back a bit, which is the more likely scenario.
American Pharoah has tactical speed and incredible maneuverability. Anything can happen in a horse race, but the odds are still good that Espinoza can work out a suitable trip and let his charge do his thing. He’s riding an impressive five-race winning streak and shows no chinks in the armor for the second jewel in the Triple Crown chase.
On a daily basis watching horse races, we see numerous rematches with a horse exacting revenge and turning the tables on a rival. Firing Line did just that to Dortmund in the Derby.
The wild scenario that could unfold in the Preakness is that Bob Baffert beats himself, as he also trains American Pharoah stablemate Dortmund.
During a week that featured New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady getting unsaddled for four weeks this fall to protect the integrity of the NFL, Baffert is doing the right thing. In his envious position training world-class runners, Baffert is not showing one high-profile owner favoritism over the other. These horses are only 3 years old once and have only three shots of putting a Triple Crown win on their resume.
The Derby winner’s track records in recent years at the Preakness are solid enough. Factor in the reduced field, the shorter distance, the preferred running style of this race and the departure of horses that possibly had an excuse in the Derby, and American Pharoah should get the job done again. Not to mention, Baffert runners have won this race five times.
Honestly, it’s not a great betting race. The way to make money with American Pharaoh, the 4-5 favorite, is to play pick threes and pick fours leading into the Preakness.
The casual fan won’t be taking that route. For me, American Pharoah wins today by a bigger margin in spite of his post position, and Dortmund turns the tables on Firing Line to complete the exacta. The price play with potential to round out the exotics is Danzig Moon at 15-1, a horse that carried on against the slow fractions in the Derby to finish fifth.
On the wagering board in Las Vegas, American Pharoah is plus-240 to win the Triple Crown. Professional money is on the “No” at minus-280.
“This is another year featuring typical betting patterns for this particular prop,” said Jay Kornegay, Westgate Las Vegas race and sports book director. “The casual fan is playing the yes. If American Pharoah wins again Saturday, it will stir up a lot of interest. I know they’re rooting for him in New York. We are too.”
It pays to look ahead regarding any value for American Pharoah in the Belmont Stakes. Despite the 37-year Triple Crown drought, people will line up in droves for their $2 memorabilia ticket and he will again be an odds-on favorite in three weeks.
As we’ve seen in the past, a freshened Frosted (fourth in the Derby) and a Todd Pletcher army of fresh horses are champing at the bit for a chance to deny history. Hopefully, we can ponder the possibilities after today’s race, but Dortmund and Firing Line have other ideas.
Brian Blessing (Sportsbookradio.com) is a Las Vegas radio host and handicapper. Follow him on Twitter: @BrianBlessing.
