American Pharoah headlines, but plenty of Breeders’ Cup betting options
This weekend marks two of the finest days in thoroughbred racing. The Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland Racecourse in Lexington, Ky., offers 13 Grade I events with large fields and a plethora of opportunities to make money.
The two-day event is headlined by the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic led by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. There are lots of ways to go in terms of wagering in each race, but here are a few of my top plays:
Race 3: The 14 Hands Winery Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
California-based runners appear to have the upper hand in this $1 million event run at 1 1/16 miles over the main track. No. 10 Songbird, the 7-5 morning-line favorite, is clearly the one to beat. This Jerry Hollendorfer trainee heads east to Lexington with a 3-for-3 record, including her most recent victory at this distance in the Grade I Chandelier Stakes at Santa Anita Park. She draws well to the outside, which should keep her out of traffic trouble and make her tough to beat. No. 1 Land Over Sea is the potential value. The daughter of Bellamy Road has only one win in four career starts, but ran a career-best second to Songbird last out in the Chandelier. Her pedigree suggests she should continue to improve with each start, and trainer Doug O’Neill has had a memorable year with 2-year-olds.
Suggested Wager: Exacta Box, No. 1 Land Over Sea and No. 10 Songbird
Race 5: The Twinspires Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
The fifth is a wide-open 14-horse field in a 7-furlong dash over the main track. Three-year old Cavorting is the lukewarm 3-1 morning-line favorite, but 3-year-olds have yet to win this race since its inception in 2007. If you are willing to gamble, Taris at 12-1 could finish first or last. The daughter of Flatter is 5-for-8 over her career, including a dominating nine-length victory over this racetrack last October in the Grade II Raven Run. She has had her issues physically and mentally, but has been training well in California and could run this group off its feet on her best day. She is certainly worth a shot if anywhere near her morning line.
Suggested Wager: Win/Place No. 3 Taris
Race 9: The Sentinet Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
The ninth is another wide-open event that demands serious horseplayers to search for value. I have been following No. 12 Swipe since his debut at Santa Anita on May 22. This Birdstone colt was quite green before and during his debut, yet he still was able to run on late for second over a speed-favoring track. From there, trainer Keith Desormeaux sent him into stakes company at Belmont Park, where he ran a strong third against winners. Since then, he as a win and three runners-up finishes to undefeated 9-2 second choice Nyquist on his resume. He clearly has serious talent and might be peaking at the right time. If jockey Victor Espinoza can work out a trip from his outside post and get some pace to run at, Swipe could be rolling home at a big price. He is another worth a gamble at anything near his 15-1 morning-line price.
Suggested Wager: Win/Place/Show No. 12 Swipe
Race 11: The Breeders’ Cup Classic
The headline event on the two-day thoroughbred extravaganza features the return of Triple Crown champion No. 4 American Pharoah. The defection because of illness of 5-year-old mare Beholder takes a bit of the excitement out of the big race, but there is still plenty of star power present. While American Pharoah will face the toughest field in his life, he should be able to dictate the pace from the get-go, giving him a distinct advantage.
If lightly raced Smooth Roller or Belmont Stakes runner-up Frosted put pressure on him early, he could be vulnerable in the stretch, but if not, it is certainly his race to lose. At a likely 4-5 price in the win pool, Pharoah is impossible to endorse, but it is equally difficult to find the horse that will beat him. However, No. 1 Tonalist does appear to be coming into this race in good form and has the numbers to be there in the end. I just question his ability to get to the wire first against this group. For that reason, I am going to play him to finish second and third in the trifecta and hope to catch a price or two around him.
Suggested Wagers:
$1 Trifecta Wheel 2+3+4+5, 1, 2+3+4+5+6+9
$1 Trifecta Wheel 2+3+4+5, 2+3+4+5+6+9, 1
Scott Shapiro covers horse racing at horseracingnation.com/blogs/FirstTurf. Follow him on Twitter: @scottshap34
