2018 NFL Week 2 betting breakdown
Colts (0-1) at Redskins (1-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Redskins -6, 48½
Analysis: The offensive line injuries for the Colts is a concern but, despite last week’s home loss to the Bengals, they outgained Cincinnati 380 to 330 yards. Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck finally appears to be healthy after completing 39 of 53 passes for 319 yards and two touchdowns against the Bengals.
By the numbers: The Redskins are 1-9 against the spread as home favorites of at least three points in Week 2. … The Colts are 23-5 straight up and 22-6 ATS with Luck when coming off a loss, including 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS as an underdog.
Pick: Colts 21, Redskins 17
Panthers (1-0) at Falcons (0-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Falcons -6, 44
Analysis: Carolina is really thin on its offensive line because of injuries. I expect Atlanta to play much better in its home opener with extra rest after its road loss at Philadelphia.
By the numbers: Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is 9-1 SU and ATS in home openers and 8-0 SU and ATS at home in Week 2.
Pick: Falcons 28, Panthers 17
Vikings (1-0) at Packers (1-0)
Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5
Line/Total: Off
Analysis: Obviously everything is dependent upon Aaron Rodgers’ status. I don’t think Green Bay will take a chance and let him play. That’s bad news for the Packers, who will be stuck with Deshone Kizer, who will have no prayer against arguably the NFL’s best defense.
By the numbers: The Packers are 2-8 ATS without Rodgers at home since he became the starter in 2008. … Vikings coach Mike Zimmer is 45-21-2 ATS as a coach.
Pick: Vikings 38, Packers 10
Chargers (0-1) at Bills (0-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Chargers -7½, 43
Analysis: Buffalo is starting rookie QB Josh Allen after benching Nathan Peterman. This will make somewhat of a difference against the Chargers, who are overpriced and without star defensive end Joey Bosa.
By the numbers: The Chargers are 3-13 ATS in their first of consecutive road games when coming off a division game. … Home underdogs (Buffalo) off a loss of 40-plus points are 10-3-2 ATS since 1995.
Pick: Chargers 21, Bills 17
Texans (0-1) at Titans (0-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Texans -3, 43
Analysis: Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota (elbow) will start, but Tennessee has numerous players out with injuries on offense, including tight end Delanie Walker. Texans QB Deshaun Watson should bounce back with a better performance than he showed in last week’s loss at New England.
By the numbers: Houston is 10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS vs. Tennessee in the past seven seasons. … The Titans are 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home openers.
Pick: Texans 28, Titans 23
Chiefs (1-0) at Steelers (0-0-1)
Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8
Line/Total: Steelers -5½, 53½
Analysis: It appears Ben Roethlisberger will play for the Steelers, and he’s a much better QB at home than away — as evidenced by his five turnovers in a 21-21 tie at Cleveland. The market has severely overreacted to the Steelers’ poor performance in their opener and the Chiefs’ impressive performance in a 38-28 win over the Chargers.
By the numbers: The Steelers are 3-0 SU and ATS against the Chiefs the past two seasons. … Pittsburgh has won and covered its last six home games in Week 2 behind Big Ben by an average margin of 19 points.
Pick: Steelers 26, Chiefs 13
Dolphins (1-0) at Jets (1-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Jets -2½, 43½
Analysis: I don’t know if the Jets are as good as they looked last week. Miami has a pretty good defense, and this is a tough one to call. Jets QB Sam Darnold probably will regress from an incredible Week 1 performance, and it’s generally a good idea to take points in a division game.
By the numbers: Miami is 1-16 ATS on the road when sandwiched between home games. … Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill has won eight of his last nine starts. … Under Jets coach Todd Bowles, New York is 2-6 SU and ATS after an upset win, failing to cover the spread by 9.2 points per game.
Pick: Dolphins 23, Jets 20
Eagles (1-0) at Buccaneers (1-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Eagles -3½, 44½
Analysis: You won’t see another Tampa Bay surprise here. Even with the Buccaneers’ impressive upset at New Orleans, their defense allowed 432 passing yards and 9.6 passing yards per attempt.
By the numbers: Bucs QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is 1-10 SU and 1-9-1 ATS in his last 11 starts. … Since 2003, teams winning their previous game as a double-digit underdog (Tampa Bay) are 23-32-4 ATS the next week. And if they’re an underdog again (Tampa Bay), they’re 15-25-3 ATS. … The Eagles have covered 14 of their last 20 games.
Pick: Eagles 28, Buccaneers 17
Browns (0-0-1) at Saints (0-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Saints -9½, 49
Analysis: The Browns, who will be without receiver Josh Gordon (hamstring), are in trouble in this spot. The Saints are coming off a rare home loss. New Orleans should be angry and totally focused. The Browns are in a terrible schedule spot after an emotional division game against their bitter rival Pittsburgh and having to travel to play a far superior nonconference opponent coming off a home loss.
By the numbers: Since 2003, teams that lost their previous game as double-digit favorites (Saints) have gone 35-22-2 (61 percent) ATS the next week. If that team is favored (Saints), that record improves to 19-9-1 (68 percent) ATS. … The Saints are the NFL’s only offense averaging more than 30 points per game at home since 2015.
Pick: Saints 37, Browns 10
Cardinals (0-1) at Rams (1-0)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Rams -13, 44½
Analysis: Everyone appears to be betting the Rams, but this is a misguided overreaction. An old sports betting adage is no team is as good or bad as its last game. This is certainly a good example, and the betting market has gotten way too carried away, leaving some value with Arizona.
By the numbers: The Rams are 1-8 ATS in games after playing an AFC opponent and 1-6 ATS as favorites in home openers. … The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS as underdogs in road openers and 5-1 ATS away against teams off Monday night (Rams) games.
Pick: Rams 27, Cardinals 20
Lions (0-1) at 49ers (0-1)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: 49ers -6, 48½
Analysis: Another market overreaction. The 49ers looked OK last week, and Detroit was about as bad as any team could be.
By the numbers: NFL teams in Week 2 off a SU favorite loss (Detroit) allowing 40-plus points are 5-1-1 ATS as road underdogs. … Detroit is 6-1 ATS as road underdogs between home games.
Pick: 49ers 24, Lions 21
Patriots (1-0) at Jaguars (1-0)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Patriots -1, 44½
Analysis: I won’t have to overthink this one. I’m backing the better overall team with some amazing trends to support New England.
By the numbers: Since 2003, Patriots QB Tom Brady is 44-19-5 ATS against above .500 opponents (Jacksonville). … When Brady is less than a 3-point favorite or underdog, the Patriots are 22-6-1 ATS, covering by an average of 9.8 points. … If New England is on the road in the above situations, it’s 17-5-1 ATS and covers by more than 10 points per game.
Pick: Patriots 27, Jaguars 13
Raiders (0-1) at Broncos (1-0)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8
Line/Total: Broncos -6½, 46
Analysis: After a great first half last week, I’m counting on a much better performance from the Raiders. This is a division opponent they should be competitive against, and the number is too high as another betting market overreaction. I’ll call for an outright Raiders win.
By the numbers: Since 2003, teams that lost at home by 20 or more points (Oakland) and are underdogs in their next game (Oakland) are 114-93-3 ATS, including 106-82-3 ATS as underdogs of at least three points. … Oakland is 5-0 ATS in its last five road openers. … Denver is 1-12 ATS as a favorite when playing teams coming off a Monday night game (Oakland).
Pick: Raiders 21, Broncos 17
Giants (0-1) at Cowboys (0-1)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/Total: Cowboys -3, 42
Analysis: Both teams are coming off losses, but the Giants looked much more competitive last week. The Cowboys have been money burners at home for quite some time. Betting NFC East division underdogs is usually the right move.
By the numbers: The Giants are 8-2-1 ATS as division underdogs with revenge on Sunday nights. … Giants QB Eli Manning is 12-3 ATS in division games off a loss. … Jason Garrett is 23-38-1 ATS at home as Cowboys coach.
Pick: Giants 23, Cowboys 20
Seahawks (0-1) at Bears (0-1)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/Total: Bears -3½, 43
Analysis: This is a pretty evenly matched game, but I see value with the Seahawks, who come in after a loss. The Bears snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in last week’s 24-23 loss at Green Bay. I don’t think a young team such as Chicago with a rookie coach can recover easily from that game, in which Aaron Rodgers helped the Packers overcome a 20-0 deficit.
By the numbers: Seattle QB Russell Wilson is 6-1 SU on Monday nights. He’s also 11-4 SU against NFC North opponents and 16-8-2 ATS as an underdog. … Pete Carroll is 33-13 SU when coming off a loss as Seattle’s coach.
Pick: Seahawks 20, Bears 16
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