Living life on the Bubble
There are two sides to what is commonly known as the NCAA Tournament "bubble," and San Diego State coach Steve Fisher is probably on the inside of it today.
In a few days, he could just as easily be on the wrong side.
Fisher is no stranger to this position. The bubble is the gray area, a space where teams float on the fringe of the 65-team tournament field.
"We’re sitting just like we did last year," Fisher said. "We were talked about as one of the teams that were maybe in, maybe out, which is exciting and a little unnerving."
As the Mountain West
Conference Tournament unfolds this week at the Thomas & Mack Center, the fourth-seeded Aztecs (22-8) seemingly have the most to gain and the most to lose.
Top-seeded New Mexico (28-3) and No. 2 Brigham Young (28-4) are safely in the NCAA Tournament no matter what, and each team is looking to enhance its profile for the selection committee.
Third-seeded UNLV (23-7) is widely considered to be in the field of 65 if it just defeats Utah (14-16) at 8:30 p.m. Thursday.
San Diego State, as the NCAA bracket forecasters always say, has some work to do. The Aztecs must advance past Colorado State (16-14) at 2:30 p.m. Thursday, and they might need to win the tourney and lock up the automatic bid.
"We want to make the NCAA Tournament, and we’re smart enough to know we need to win a game or two in order to do that, and maybe win the whole thing," Fisher said. "Who knows?
"We told (the players) a month ago, ‘Don’t pay any attention to anything other than what we tell you about the next game.’ But it’s almost impossible to do that if you’re a sports fan and turn on TV, because you see what they’re saying."
There are multiple bracket projectors in business, the most prominent being Joe Lunardi, who is now updating his "Bracketology" forecast on ESPN.com almost daily.
San Diego State is one of the last four teams on the inside of Lunardi’s bubble, to which Fisher says, "I guess it’s good to be mentioned."
The Rebels are not on the bubble, according to Lunardi, who has them slotted as a No. 8 seed. But if UNLV gets upset by Utah, there will be some sweating on Selection Sunday.
"Given our body of work, you feel good about where we’re at, but what I feel doesn’t mean anything," Rebels coach Lon Kruger said. "Several teams (around the nation) are playing this one with the attitude that ‘we need one more.’ If we get that one on Thursday, then we’ll play the Friday one with exactly the same attitude."
Kruger, in his 24th year as a college head coach, said he’s not certain when he first heard the term "bubble" in regard to NCAA Tournament speculation.
"I don’t think so in the 1980s. Maybe the late 90s," he said.
A Google search for "NCAA Tournament bubble" references "about 286,000" entries. In recent years, there also has been an explosion of popularity in the "Bracketology" predictions. Some coaches and players follow it closely, Kruger said, but he’s not in that group.
"It’s not week to week like it was maybe five years ago. Today, as soon as the game ends, there’s a new ranking, a new position relative to the bracket," Kruger said. "It’s immediate, every day. It has changed so much, No. 1, by just the technology. Everything is immediate and everything is out there a lot more.
"I know there’s probably a lot of people who get up and check it out every day. As a fan, it’s interesting. If you’re worried about that every day, then it can kind of get out of control. I can honestly say I haven’t looked at one ‘Bracketology’ all year. But I have heard."
Fisher said he has heard a lot about San Diego State’s position on the bubble, which includes teams such as Arizona State, Florida, Illinois, Notre Dame and Washington.
Before Tuesday’s games, the Aztecs were No. 36 in the Ratings Percentage Index, a grading tool used by the NCAA selection committee. By comparison, Illinois was No. 75, but the Illini are still in the hunt mostly because of their fifth-place standing in the Big Ten.
"I don’t follow all the RPI stuff," Fisher said. "I don’t put a lot of stock in what other people say. I remember last year."
San Diego State knocked off UNLV to open last year’s MWC tournament. The Aztecs advanced past top-seeded BYU before losing to Utah 52-50 in the championship.
The Mountain West sent two teams to the NCAA Tournament last year, and San Diego State ended up on the wrong side of the bubble and in the National Invitation Tournament.
"When we beat BYU, people were saying, ‘You’re in, you’re in.’ And then we lost to Utah by two in the finals, and then we weren’t in," Fisher said. "If you win, you’ll take away all the anxiety."
Contact reporter Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.
