Previewing the NCAA Final Four matchups
No. 3 Michigan (32-7) vs. No. 11 Loyola-Chicago (32-5)
Time: 3:09 p.m. Saturday
TV: TBS
Line: Michigan -5; total 129½
How they got here: Michigan needed a long last-second 3-pointer from Jordan Poole to escape Houston in the second round 64-63, then held off Florida State 58-54 in the Elite Eight to advance out of the West Regional, having also defeated Montana and Texas A&M. Loyola is the surprise champion of the South Regional, winning its first three games against Miami, Tennessee and UNR by a total of four points before running away from Kansas State 78-62.
Outlook: So, big shots probably won’t be a problem for either team. Loyola has hit three game winners in the tournament and makes a ridiculous 40 percent of its 3-pointers. Everyone saw what Poole did to Houston. Problem for the Ramblers is, Michigan ranks fourth nationally in defensive efficiency at one end and rarely turns the ball over at the other. Loyola is also stingy defensively, meaning this thing has every chance to be a low-scoring game defined by long possessions. You can expect everyone present not wearing maize and blue to be rooting for underdog Loyola, which could keep the 11 seed in the game late. These teams are alike, other than the fact Michigan has better players. But sit back and enjoy, because rarely are we treated to the sort of ball movement and shooting and efficiency we could get if both are at their best. Porter Moser of Loyola is a coaching disciple of the late Rick Majerus, and Michigan coach John Beilein is among the best nationally roaming sidelines. He also has had a week to scout Loyola. Edge: Michigan.
Matchup to watch: Mo Wagner against Cameron Krutwig. Yeah, it’s a safe bet the Ramblers don’t often see the sort of stretch-5 problem Wagner presents, a 6-foot-11-inch junior for Michigan with guard skills. He’s a future NBA player who is likely too quick outside for the 6-9 Krutwig to handle and too skilled inside for the freshman or teammates Donte Ingram or Aundre Jackson to stop. Loyola’s best chance might be to go even smaller than usual and force Wagner to defend faster players. Edge: Michigan.
Who must play great for Loyola to win: Clayton Custer. When you employ as many guards as the Ramblers, your point better be adept at getting guys involved and delivering the ball to shooters at the right spots. The junior Custer averages team highs in scoring (13.2) and minutes (32.7). He can’t be off and have anyone expect a Loyola upset.
Who must play great for Michigan to win: Given its edge in depth, I’m not sure anyone has to be great, but it would help if Wagner was at least really good. He averages 14.3 points and 6.9 rebounds while shooting almost 40 percent on 3s, and his versatility alone could allow the Wolverines to cover the number.
Key stat: Michigan ranks 14th nationally in turnover margin, and Loyola is 154th.
Did you know?: Loyola is the fourth 11 seed to make the Final Four, joining Louisiana State (1986), George Mason (2006) and Virginia Commonwealth (2011).
Pick: Michigan 68, Loyola Chicago 60.
No. 1 Villanova (34-3) vs. No. 1 Kansas (31-7)
Time: 6:49 p.m. Saturday
TV: TBS
Line: Villanova -5; total 155
How they got here: Winners of a national championship two years ago, Villanova returned to the Final Four by beating Radford, Alabama, West Virginia and Texas Tech out of the East Regional, having all four games decided by double digits. Kansas exorcised some of its recent Elite Eight demons by taking out Duke in overtime in the Midwest Regional final, after eliminating Penn, Seton Hall and Clemson.
Outlook: For as much as it wouldn’t surprise folks to see the opening game end in the 50s, odds suggest the second semifinal will make the scoreboard operator work a lot harder. Two of the nation’s best teams in terms of offensive efficiency, the Wildcats and Jayhawks shoot and score better than most teams. And yet it might be this simple: If the Kansas trio of Devonte Graham, Svi Mykhailiuk and Malik Newman are hot from distance, the Jayhawks will advance. Villanova needs to defend the 3-point line from the opening tip and run as many Kansas shooters off it, because the Wildcats have proven they don’t necessarily need to match teams on 3s to win. Far from it. Villanova is the better all-around team. Better off the bounce. Better at attacking the rim. The Wildcats not only can shoot it from all five spots but also drive it from all five. They switch all screens defensively and can match up with big and small lineups. Kansas is a difficult guard because it spreads opponents out so much and finds easy scores off countless back-door lobs to the likes of sophomore center Udoka Azubuike, but you would think Villanova coach Jay Wright will figure out something to control all that weaving and constant balls screens. Edge: Villanova.
Matchup to watch: Graham against Jalen Brunson. Not often will any game, much less one at the Final Four, offer a head-to-head battle between consensus first-team All-America point guards. The junior Brunson is arguably the nation’s most dominant player in that he not only shoots 40 percent on 3s but also plays through the post. No one controls a game better. The senior Graham is just as clutch and is terrific at initiating the pick-and-roll. Neither could prove to be first-round NBA draft picks come June, but for this big a stage in college, you couldn’t ask for a better individual showdown. Edge: Villanova.
Who must play great for Villanova to win: Mikal Bridges. The junior wing (17.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg) is one of the best at igniting all those mini runs that allow Villanova to first build a lead and then grow it in the second half. He’s as versatile a player as the Final Four has, teasing you into extending on his jumper and then driving past you for scores.
Who must play great for Kansas to win: Newman. Kansas isn’t here without the play of this sophomore guard, who has added another offensive dimension to complement Graham. Newman has averaged 21.8 points in four NCAA wins and is coming off a career-best 32 against Duke. Now is definitely not the time for him to lose his confidence or shot.
Key stat: Graham is the only Division I player averaging 17.0-plus points, 7.0-plus assists, 1.6-plus steals and fewer than 3.0 turnovers.
Did you know?: Villanova is six 3-pointers shy of a Division I single-season record 442, which would break the mark set by VMI in 2007.
Pick: Villanova 79, Kansas 74.
