Kentucky-Wisconsin matchup
KENTUCKY (38-0) vs. WISCONSIN (34-3)
■ SITE: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
■ TIME: approximately 5:49 p.m.
■ TV/RADIO: TBS (7), TNT (18), KWWN (1100 AM, 100.9 FM)
■ LINE: Kentucky -5; total 131
■ LAST MEETING: Kentucky won 74-73 in a Final Four semifinal in 2014.
■ FINAL FOUR HISTORY: Kentucky has been in 17 Final Fours and won eight national titles; Wisconsin has been this far four times, winning it all in 1941.
■ WHAT’S DIFFERENT THIS TIME: You mean other than the pursuit of history? Same teams, same spot in the bracket, different implications for the Wildcats. Two wins in Indianapolis will give them the perfection of 40-0. They beat Wisconsin at last year’s Final Four when Aaron Harrison made a deep 3-pointer from the left side with five seconds remaining. There was no Willie Cauley-Stein in Kentucky’s lineup then (he was injured), no Karl-Anthony Towns, no Trey Lyles. There was Alex Poythress, but he’s now out with an injured knee. The key parts for Wisconsin return in senior Sam Kaminsky and junior Sam Dekker, but the former needs a better night than he managed against the Wildcats last year (eight points, five rebounds). Kentucky is even bigger and longer this time, but the Badgers were still even on the boards with the Wildcats in 2014.
■ MATCHUP TO WATCH: Kentucky bigs vs. Kaminsky
■ THINK ABOUT THIS: The game matches the nation’s No. 1 team in offensive efficiency against the No. 1 side in defensive efficiency. You would just never guess which is which. The Badgers run their swing offense to the point of utter frustration for those trying to defend it, but little good happens if Kaminsky doesn’t produce. Kentucky guarded him last year with Marcus Lee and Dakari Johnson and even went small to try to disrupt his rhythm. It worked. Kaminsky wasn’t much of a factor, though he scored to tie the game with about a minute left. At his best, Kaminsky uses one of the game’s best perimeter pump fakes to keep defenders off balance. If those Wildcats guarding him can contain him enough off the dribble and at least contest his 3-pointers, Kentucky’s chances at victory improve greatly.
■ KEY STAT: Wisconsin averages 72.8 points but is 345th nationally in adjusted tempo. What that means: The Badgers might be one of the country’s slowest teams, but no one gets more out of each possession. No one comes close.
■ POSSIBLE UNSUNG HERO FOR KENTUCKY: Johnson. This is how it goes sometimes when you play for that talent factory in Lexington. Johnson is a 7-foot sophomore who started last year’s game against the Badgers and had 10 points and seven rebounds in 18 minutes while offering stellar defense against Kaminsky. But he hasn’t started a game this season and played only eight minutes in the Midwest Region final against Notre Dame, though he had three blocks. Given his experience on this stage, you would think there is a chance the Wildcats will play him early to see if he again provides significant minutes.
■ POSSIBLE UNSUNG HERO FOR WISCONSIN: Josh Gasser. He is a fifth-year senior guard whose playing time increased once Traevon Jackson missed 19 games with a broken foot. Gasser scored 10 points in the West Region championship win against Arizona — his first double-digit effort in 15 games — and what he might lack in talent when compared to Kentucky guards Aaron and Andrew Harrison, he could make up for in experience. Remember, it was Gasser who was defending Aaron Harrison when that game-winning 3 was launched at the Final Four last year, Gasser who jumped to contest the shot, Gasser who looked back to see it hit nothing but net, Gasser who on Friday said he has thought of that moment every day since.
■ THE X FACTOR: Kentucky is one of three teams in the kenpom.com era with a defensive efficiency rating of 85.6, and only John Calipari’s final team at Memphis was better (85.10). According to Pomeroy, the fact Kentucky ranks in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiency affords the Wildcats a great chance to be cutting down the nets Monday night. By the Pomeroy system, only five national champions since 2002 have not been ranked in the top 10 in both categories. Kentucky is incredibly hard to score on, and now you add the deceptive sight lines of a dome for Wisconsin scorers Kaminsky and Dekker to also overcome. Brutal.
■ QUOTING KENTUCKY: “We’re not perfect. We’re undefeated. We’ve had teams that had their chances to beat us, and we figured it out somehow. The good news is, we talked about it as a team. The players understand their job is to be prepared and to be the best version of themselves. They all have each other’s backs. We got enough guys. We’re not perfect. We’re undefeated, but not perfect.” — Calipari
■ QUOTING WISCONSIN: “I think we’ve had a pretty good season also. When our guys step on the court, they believe it’s a 40-minute contest, that we can do this. We go over every scouting report the same way. Every team is treated the same way. Do you think I have to tell my players that this is a big game or that Kentucky is pretty good? I think our guys are astute enough to figure that out.” — Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan
■ PREDICTION: Kentucky 69, Wisconsin 64
