Duke-Michigan State matchup
DUKE (33-4) vs. MICHIGAN STATE (27-11)
■ SITE: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
■ TIME: 3:09 p.m.
■ TV/RADIO: TBS (7), TNT (18); KWWN (1100 AM, 100.9 FM)
■ LINE: Duke -5½; total 138½
■ LAST MEETING: Duke won 81-71 on Nov. 18.
■ FINAL FOUR HISTORY: Duke has advanced 16 times and won four national championships; Michigan State has made the NCAA semifinals nine times, winning twice.
■ WHAT’S DIFFERENT THIS TIME: A lot, except for the city. Duke beat the Spartans in November in Indianapolis, the season’s second game for Michigan State and third for the Blue Devils. But few teams are the same almost five months later, and the Michigan State side that shot 5 of 20 from 3-point range and had 13 turnovers that night isn’t close to such a subpar level. It has grown, matured and improved drastically. It has far greater depth now. Spartans guard Travis Trice has gone from a good player back then to a very good one today. Duke, ironically, is thinner, having dismissed guard Rasheed Sulaimon from the team. He played only 12 minutes and scored three points in that first meeting. That left Duke with eight scholarship players, albeit eight terrific ones who also have developed as the months passed.
■ MATCHUP TO WATCH: Justise Winslow (Duke) vs. Branden Dawson (Michigan State)
The Spartans had better hope the theory about defense winning championships proves true. Dawson is his team’s best one-on-one defender, and in Winslow he will get an opposing guard who is averaging 14 points in the tournament, critical given star center Jahlil Okafor has been held below double digits in the past two games. Winslow can score at the rim and from long range, making him one of the tougher matchups at the Final Four. Dawson doesn’t give up anything in size — both players are listed at 6 feet 6 inches, 225 pounds — but he’ll be tested when trying to close out on Winslow at the 3-point line and also keep him off the boards for possible second-chance points.
■ KEY STAT: As incredible a coach as Tom Izzo has been at Michigan State, especially in March, he is 1-8 against Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski.
■ POSSIBLE UNSUNG HERO FOR DUKE: Quinn Cook. It’s tough to be an unsung anything when you average 15.5 points for a No. 1 seed, but Cook’s senior leadership on a team with so many freshmen could prove invaluable on such a bright stage. Okafor is the top priority for any opposing scout, and Winslow has killed it during the tournament, meaning Cook could quietly make the plays needed to win.
■ POSSIBLE UNSUNG HERO FOR MICHIGAN STATE: Two names. Matt Costello and Gavin Schilling. Michigan State hasn’t been great against skilled big men — Wisconsin star Frank Kaminsky went for 31 points against the Spartans in early March and 19 in a Big Ten Conference tournament rematch — so how big men Costello and Schilling handle Okafor could prove the difference. Okafor is averaging just 7.5 points and 8.0 rebounds in Duke’s past two games, but is going for 17.5 and 8.7 on the season.
■ THE X FACTOR: Meaningless games are often decided at the free-throw line. The same goes for the biggest ones. Michigan State fans are all sorts of crazy about their team, which is why emails found Izzo’s computer on a daily basis from all parts of the world this season, helpful hints as to how a team that shoots 63 percent from the line might improve itself. Witch doctors from California even offered advice. Others suggested the Spartans stand to the right or left more when shooting. Not much worked. Duke, on the other hand, shoots almost 70 percent from the line, slightly above the national average.
■ QUOTING DUKE: “I’m not a big guy on records. You know what, Michigan State doesn’t lack talent. Come on. Trice has been as good as any player in the tournament. Dawson is as good an athlete. (Denzel) Valentine is as versatile. They should have probably beaten Wisconsin. I mean, it’s a championship-level team. I just told you guys we’ve watched them and how they are playing now, they look pretty good. Stats and records don’t make any difference.” — Krzyzewski
■ QUOTING MICHIGAN STATE: “They’re a great team. They have great history. But we fear no one. We’re going to play them like it’s just another regular team. We’re not going to say, ‘Oh, it’s Duke.’ We’ve beaten a lot of great teams in this tournament and in the Big Ten Tournament. We’re going to attack them like any other team we play. With no fear.” — Valentine
■ PREDICTION: Duke 72, Michigan State 66
