Backing underdogs paying off
As stated in this space last week, there was an overreaction to the opening weekend of the NFL season, and it provided opportunities for contrarian bettors.
Underdogs went 12-3-1 against the spread, and a lot of games the public thought were foregone conclusions were anything but. Most people will point to the outright upsets of the Browns over Bengals, Texans over Panthers, 49ers over Rams, Packers over Giants, Buccaneers over Saints and Cardinals over Seahawks as the epitome of “on any given Sunday.” And you can throw in the Redskins over the Eagles on Monday night.
But what really showed the spreads were too high were the high number of games in which the favorite won but did not cover: Colts-Titans, Jaguars-Falcons, Ravens-Jets, Broncos-Raiders and Bears-Chiefs.
This week, we’re seeing more stability in the lines as the public appears more willing to back the underdogs.
Ten of the 16 games have point spreads between 3 and 4, and it almost looks like there might be some value on some of the favorites as perhaps the market has over-corrected itself in the other direction. But I’m an underdog player, so I won’t be laying any of those points, especially since most of the enticing spreads are on road favorites: Colts, Chargers and Panthers.
Instead, I offer up five road underdogs that I feel haven’t seen their prices corrected as much as I think they should be, using lines as of Saturday night (home team in CAPS).
• 49ers (+91/2) over STEELERS — The Steelers, despite runaway wins over the Browns and Bills, are overhyped, while the 49ers (2-0) aren’t being shown any respect. The 49ers’ defense has impressed me by holding the Cardinals and Rams, two potentially explosive offenses, to 17 and 16 points, respectively, and should contain the Steelers and keep them in the game. The 49ers’ offense will challenge the Pittsburgh defense.
• Cardinals (+8) over RAVENS — The Cardinals bounced back from their Week 1 loss to the 49ers by beating the Seahawks. Now they face a Ravens team that wasn’t impressive in a non-covering win over the Jets last week. Baltimore quarterback Steve McNair, who had been listed as questionable, is going to play, but he’ll be without left tackle Jonathan Ogden. Underdogs of 71/2 or more are 5-1 against the spread this season.
• Lions (+6) over EAGLES — The Lions are 2-0. Granted, the wins were over the Raiders and Vikings. But the Eagles are 0-2 after losses to the Packers and Redskins. The Lions are brimming with confidence, and if the Redskins could score 20 on the Eagles, the Lions should do better. If they do, I don’t see the Eagles, with an offense that has scored 13 and 12 points, respectively, scoring close to 30 to cover the spread.
• Rams (+4) over BUCCANEERS — The Rams are a major disappointment after losing their first two games at home, but this line would be less than a field goal if the Buccaneers hadn’t upset the Saints last week. The Bucs will have difficulty pulling off back-to-back wins, while the Rams are playing to salvage their season.
• Titans (+4) over SAINTS — When the Las Vegas Hilton put up advance lines on Sept. 11, the Saints were minus-7 in this game, so we see the effect of the Saints’ loss to the Bucs and the Titans’ spread-covering loss to the Colts. But I’ll still take the adjusted price as Vince Young continues to get the job done, covering eight of his past nine games, including six outright upsets.
Last week — 4-1 against the spread
Season — 6-4
Las Vegas-based handicapper Dave Tuley also writes for the Daily Racing Form and ViewFromVegas.com.
