VICTOR JOECKS: Nevada flattened the curve. Now it needs a plan to reopen.

Nevada has flattened the curve and its economy. It’s time to talk about reopening.

The widely shared “flatten the curve” graphic provided a succinct summary of the case for taking unprecedented measures to fight the coronavirus. Absent preventive measures, it showed a massive spike in coronavirus cases that far exceeded the medical system’s capacity. It also showed how protective measures, such as social distancing, could spread the cases out over time. Flattening the curve would prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed.

But — and this is key — flattening the curve doesn’t eliminate the coronavirus. The graphic showed that taking protective measures simply produced a similar number of infections over a longer period.

There’s good news on the medical front. Nevada has flattened the curve. The total number of cases is increasing, but not exponentially. Our hospitals have plenty of capacity. On Tuesday, Gov. Steve Sisolak shared that 59 percent of statewide hospital beds are occupied. Coronavirus patients occupy just 10 percent of statewide beds. For every coronavirus patient in the hospital, there are five non-coronavirus patients.

ICU beds are available, too. Statewide, 69 percent are occupied, with 33 percent occupied by someone with coronavirus. Thirty-seven percent of ventilators are in use.

This doesn’t mean the coronavirus crisis is over. Pandemics spring up quickly and they can return quickly. No one is recommending joining 50,000 strangers at a baseball game.

But it is reasonable to expect a timeline for opening and easing restrictions on lower-risk activities and for those at lower risk. It’s likely that Nevada will need to open in stages. That could start with schools.

“Recent modelling studies of COVID-19 predict that school closures alone would prevent only 2-4 percent of deaths, much less than other social distancing interventions,” noted a recent paper in the peer-reviewed medical journal, The Lancet. The paper was authored by nine academics who work at places such as UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, University College London and the MRC Epidemiology Unit at University of Cambridge.

Public safety is very important, but it can’t be the sole factor Sisolak considers. It hasn’t been so far. He’s concluded that the risk — after mitigation efforts — of spreading the virus at construction sites is worth the number of people it keeps employed. That’s the exact type of judgment an elected official must demonstrate.

It’s why Sisolak’s ban on people staying in their car to listen to a sermon in their church’s parking lot made no sense. It likely made an insignificant difference in slowing the spread of coronavirus and it wasn’t worth trampling the First Amendment.

Nevadans shouldn’t expect Sisolak to stop the spread of coronavirus. But they should now expect him to lay out the metrics and benchmarks he’ll use to determine when to open the economy. He also needs to articulate what benchmarks would have to be crossed before shutting the state down again.

Victor Joecks’ column appears in the Opinion section each Sunday, Wednesday and Friday. Listen to him discuss his columns each Monday at 10 a.m. with Kevin Wall on 790 Talk Now. Contact him at vjoecks@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4698. Follow @victorjoecks on Twitter.