VICTOR JOECKS: DeSantis remains only viable alternative to Trump

Republican voters see Nikki Haley as Mitt Romney in high heels. It’s deeply naïve to think she would best Donald Trump in a one-on-one matchup.

As the primary season heats up, Republican presidential candidates are coming to Las Vegas this weekend. They’ll be speaking at the Republican Jewish Coalition’s Annual Leadership Summit.

This makes it a good time to analyze where things stand. Trump remains the dominant front-runner.

Trump’s lead comes from several major factors. First, he’s well-known and popular with Republican primary voters. Some like his braggadocio. Almost all of them appreciate that he reshaped the priorities of the Republican Party. He has major accomplishments, too, such as the pre-COVID economy and moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem.

Precisely because they’re so politically motivated, Trump’s indictments boosted his poll numbers. His margin looks even better, because the field remains crowded. In Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump is around or below 50 percent in the Real Clear Politics polling average. Finally, winning produces its own momentum.

Put that all together, and a path to victory emerges for a non-Trump candidate. Suppose someone pulls off an upset in Iowa or New Hampshire. That pierces Trump’s perceived inevitability. Other candidates drop out. By the time Super Tuesday comes, it’s Trump against one other candidate.

That’s not the most likely scenario, but it’s a plausible one. That’s why former South Carolina Gov. Haley wants donors to see her, not Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, as the most viable Trump alternative.

Haley has many strengths. She’s smart, poised and articulate. She projects competence. With her foreign policy expertise and willingness to downplay social issues, she’s a natural fit for many donors.

Step back and think about other Republican presidential nominees who fit that description. Romney and the late-Sen. John McCain come to mind. One reason Trump won the 2016 nomination was because GOP primary voters were fed up with supposedly competent candidates who didn’t take the fight to the left — rhetorically or policy-wise.

Quick: Name Haley’s most impressive gubernatorial accomplishment. The only thing you probably remember is that she removed the Confederate flag from the state Capitol. That was the right decision, but it’s hardly evidence someone will push conservative policies in Washington, D.C.

In contrast, DeSantis’ accomplishments are too long to list in full. A sample: Reopened Florida, including schools; stopped schools from sexually indoctrinating students; removed critical race theory from classrooms; signed universal school choice; and flew illegal immigrants to Martha’s Vineyard. And he’s incredible in crisis. Look at how quickly he reopened the Matlacha Bridge after Hurricane Ian and flew around 700 Americans out of Israel.

DeSantis is still standing after a year of attacks. DeSantis’ Super PAC is starting to hit Haley over her coziness with China. Expect those ads to drop her popularity. Negative publicity helps explain the quick rise and fall of Sen. Tim Scott and Vivek Ramaswamy.

Trump talks tough, but DeSantis delivers. That, not Haley, is an alternative that a majority of Republican voters could find appealing.

Contact Victor Joecks at vjoecks@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4698. Follow @victorjoecks on X.