Nevada delegates far from locked up

John McCain has the GOP presidential nomination all but locked up, but plenty of Republicans aren’t backing him. The Democratic Party, meanwhile, appears more unified than the Republicans, despite the very close race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination.

Last week I spoke with three delegates who will represent Clinton at the Clark County Democratic convention Feb. 23. All three expressed serious doubts that the New York senator could capture the nomination even though she won Nevada outright and is only spitting distance behind Obama in the collection of delegates. But they said they wouldn’t mind Obama as the nominee.

“They both basically share my politics,” one delegate told me. “I think Clinton’s better on foreign policy, but I adore Obama, too.”

She didn’t want to be named because she didn’t want the Clinton campaign to be upset with her if, in fact, she jumps ship to Obama.

The delegate, a 67-year-old Las Vegan who vigorously supported Clinton up through Nevada’s Jan. 19 caucus, admits she’d happily swing her status to Obama.

“I don’t want a brokered convention with delegate fights,” she said. “And if the majority of voters in my party pick Obama, I’m with them.”

Two other delegates shared similar thoughts with me, and because delegates are permitted to switch, this coming weekend’s Democratic county conventions may be filled with subtle attempts by Obama delegates to commandeer those tepidly supporting Clinton.

It’s not so much jumping on a bandwagon as it is unifying the party, another Clinton delegate said.

“At this point, after South Carolina and Obama winning all those mid-American states on Super Tuesday, I feel as though it’s only tried-and-true blue staters coming out for Clinton,” said the delegate, a 54-year-old Henderson insurance agent. “He’s continuing to just beat her by huge margins, and that shows me he may just pick up more and more support as this thing goes on.”

The delegate said he’s definitely sticking with Clinton on Saturday at the convention, but “will happily support Obama.”

A third delegate, a 64-year-old customer service representative in Summerlin, said that even though she is representing Clinton, she now feels she made a mistake Jan. 19.

“I felt it was so important as a woman to stick with Clinton,” she said. “But now I hear Obama talking and it’s almost like JFK and Bobby Kennedy and Martin Luther King all combined. I feel so strongly about his message that I’d be happy to move over to him.”

The main purpose of the county conventions around the state Saturday is to elect delegates to the state convention to be held in Reno in May. It’s at that convention that national delegates are selected.

Four years ago, the John Kerry campaign sent several campaign staffers to the Democratic State Convention in Las Vegas to ensure no hijinks would be forthcoming at the national convention in Boston.

It would be a huge mistake to write off Clinton, given her vast network of party support and her husband’s continued popularity. It’s still possible for her to make a major comeback in the March 4 primaries in Texas and Ohio.

Her campaign strategy appears to be focusing on those delegate-rich states. Exit polls in Maryland, Washington, D.C., and Virginia showed Obama is performing even better among black voters, and that he has increased his support from both white women and Hispanics.

The Obama campaign isn’t even conceding Nevada. Its Web site suggests Obama won here because 13 of the 25 delegates have been pledged to him. On Jan. 20, most people wrote that off as sour grapes. Now, with the conventions just around the corner, you can expect a battle for some of those Clark delegates who went for Clinton. It’s even possible Clinton’s allies will go after some of Obama’s pledged delegates from the rural counties.

To be sure, Clinton still has rabid supporters in Nevada, not to mention Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid watching over the delegates.

The woman who told me she’d switch said she wouldn’t need much inducement.

“If the Obama people ask me, I’ll come,” she said. “I don’t know how it’s going to work, but I’ll try to go to the state convention, and if they ask me who I’m supporting, I’ll probably say him.

“Let’s just say, I’m a soft supporter of Clinton.”

Technically, delegates aren’t finalized until the May state convention, so there’s still time for movement.

You can bet with the national race neck-and-neck, each delegate is very important. Because Obama now has a lead with the pledged delegates over Clinton’s superdelegates and her own victories from states, the momentum could persuade others to join the wagon to the national convention in Denver.

Winning begets winning when it comes to the March Madness of college basketball. Sometimes a low-seeded team gets a victory under its belt and suddenly has the confidence of the region’s No. 1 squad.

Superdelegates aren’t much different. They are political animals to their core and would love to be able to say they’re supporting a winner. Once they see more delegates go to Obama, they won’t feel so badly about pledging with him.

If these few Clinton delegates in Clark County are any indication, Clinton will need to rebound really soon to stem the tide.

Contact Erin Neff at (702) 387-2906, or by e-mail at eneff@reviewjournal.com.