Don’t expect Reid to get Daschled

It’s nearly impossible to predict what could happen at the ballot next year, let alone in 2010, but the rabid right would like to suggest that Harry Reid is already Tom Daschle.

A recent Review-Journal poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research shows Nevadans are equally split in their views of the Democratic Senate majority leader, who won’t be up for re-election for three more years. Reid ranks right down there with Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons, elected last year without majority support.

The poll showed 41 percent viewed Reid’s performance as excellent or good while 42 percent viewed it as poor. An additional 16 percent said his performance was “only fair.”

It’s only fair that I point out the difficulty in giving people four choices to describe Reid. A choice between favorable or unfavorable would have been more telling.

But when you compare Reid’s numbers to those of Nevada’s junior senator, John Ensign, it’s clear that Reid’s role as the face of Senate Democrats has affected him here at home. Just 12 percent viewed Ensign’s performance as poor, while 57 percent said his performance was excellent or good.

On election night 2004, Nevada Democrats gathered in a ballroom at the Rio to watch what they thought would be a John Kerry victory in the presidential race.

Reid never emerged to address the crowd that night in part because he was too distraught over the loss of his friend and mentor in South Dakota. It was Daschle’s defeat that appeared to strike Reid more than Kerry’s that night, even as it led to Reid’s own ascension to minority leader.

The case against Daschle in South Dakota was that as Democratic leader he was out of touch with the Mount Rushmore State. He was pro-choice, and he was the national voice against the Bush administration and the Republicans who had controlled both houses of Congress for most of his three years as leader.

Daschle was also “Daschled” by the Republican National Committee and by a candidate, John Thune, who had lost just two years before by less than 600 votes.

Every time I speak to Republican groups or appear on conservative talk radio in Las Vegas I’m asked if Reid is the next Daschle.

Although Reid’s popularity has slipped in Nevada as a result of his national position and the constant repetition of RNC talking points, he is by no means Daschle.

For starters, the election is three years away. That’s a lifetime in politics.

By 2010, a Democrat could be sitting in the White House, clearing the way for policies that Reid’s Democratic Congress views as election-strategy gems.

By 2010, Republican Rep. Jon Porter may have lost his congressional seat, and with it, the visible launching point to challenge Reid. Who’s on the farm team if Porter falls? Bob Beers? Brian Krolicki?

The right-wingers may think Reid is stupid, but he’s no political dummy. He’s worked tirelessly since 1998 to preserve his seat.

Daschle lost because he lost his base. Roughly one in five Democrats in South Dakota went for Thune in 2004, and Daschle was unable to attract Republican voters.

Reid, who is pro-life, may be unlikely to win much Republican support in 2010, but he will be able to play the clout card. And unless his opponent is outstanding, he should be able to ride the power card to victory.

By 2010, Nevada will undoubtedly be the recipient of tens of millions of dollars in additional earmarks, thanks to Reid. And even if there’s a Republican in the White House, a new president will have a short honeymoon with a Democratic Congress.

And Reid has been working frenetically of late to shore up his support among Democrats.

Some of his base is mad about the lack of movement on Iraq. Democrats swept to power last year, in large part, because they vowed to change course. Instead, Democrats couldn’t even stop the surge and even continued to fund the war.

That’s why Reid is so ga-ga over stopping proposed coal-fired power plants near Ely. Even casually environmental Democrats support Reid’s vow to block the plants.

Last week, he was working to slip language into a required spending bill. His language would boost air quality requirements at Great Basin National Park, a move that would likely block two plants planned near Ely.

He’ll undoubtedly also find a way to try to block a third coal plant planned near Mesquite.

Reid is hoping public pressure builds against Sierra Pacific Resources, the parent company of Nevada Power, which is building one of the plants.

Congress may ultimately approve the Great Basin air requirements in the omnibus budget bill that funds the federal government. And as long as Democrats hold the final number relatively in check, President Bush probably won’t veto it.

Reid has always been highly ranked by environmental groups for his various positions, and working to block coal-fired plants will only get him more praise.

Republicans may think they’ve got Reid on the ropes, but even with his low poll numbers, Reid is no Daschle and will do everything he can to prove it.

Contact Erin Neff at eneff@reviewjournal.com or (702) 387-2906.