Clinton calculus

The closest thing to a national primary takes place today. As Super Tuesday returns trickle in from Massachusetts to Alaska, Nevada voters could see mixed results for the presidential candidates who won the state’s Jan. 19 caucuses — results that will have huge ramifications for the GOP campaign.

Even if Mitt Romney can pick up some delegates and win Utah and Colorado today, it appears Arizona Sen. John McCain has transitioned into the candidate to beat for the Republican nomination.

McCain couldn’t even manage a second-place finish in the Nevada caucus. After today, Silver State Republicans, who overwhelmingly supported Romney, probably have to start moving into McCain’s corner, his “comprehensive” immigration plan notwithstanding. Not because polls show McCain has substantial leads in delegate-rich New Jersey, New York and Illinois, but because Nevada Republicans’ only other option come November likely will be the winner of the state’s Democratic caucus: Hillary Clinton.

The Clinton machine appears to be humming along very nicely even though most data show Democrats cannot retake the White House with the former first lady (and her not-so-much-better-anymore half) on the ticket.

Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., calls Clinton a great motivator for Republican voters. And I’d trust the still-popular Ensign when it comes to knowing what voters here feel — Nevada’s junior senator enjoys solid approval ratings while those of Congress are falling through the basement.

McCain may not be the type of candidate who’ll excite and turn out the GOP base, from evangelicals to Reagan conservatives, but his lack of love in Nevada won’t matter much if Republicans get to vote against someone they despise.

Nevada Democrats not only presented Clinton with a decisive victory on Jan. 19, they gave her a path to victory in the urban areas participating today.

Clinton already has sizable leads in the polls in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and California.

Obama’s strategy today, it would seem, is to pick off the rural areas of populous states like New Jersey and Missouri, win the black vote in the South and pick up delegates in his home state of Illinois. I’m not good enough with delegate math to figure out whether Obama is going to have a chance after tonight, but it would appear Nevada’s Democrats will see their candidate advance.

The state Democratic Party has hyped the 118,000 voters who turned out to caucus as a sign that Nevada’s on the path to blue. Having seen numerous Nevada Democrats (even in 2004, when they should have known better) vote for George Bush, I can imagine some of them crossing over to vote for a legitimate war hero who (depending on the day, location and company) seems to be concerned about global warming.

And McCain’s immigration policy, ripped by Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano (who’s bucking for a spot on the Obama ticket) as too lenient, certainly plays all right with Nevada’s Democrats.

Polls indicate that a November matchup between McCain and Clinton does not bode well for Democrats. Even if Clinton were to churn out every part of her base and win a few crossover women, the vast majority of independents will sidle over to McCain.

Republicans will hold their noses and vote for him. After all, they’d be voting against Clinton.

Democrats have argued that the West holds the key to election victory this year. If Obama is the nominee and runs into trouble in the South, he can steer enough intermountain Western states to win the election. If Clinton is the nominee, it’s hard to imagine even Colorado, New Mexico or Arizona (which have actual Democratic counties) getting her to the White House.

In 2004, John Kerry beat George Bush by less than 5 percent in Nevada’s only Democratic county, Clark. On a map, that might be considered light blue, especially considering the Democrats’ voter registration edge in the Las Vegas Valley.

National Public Radio on Monday aired the results of its new poll (by Republican Glen Bolger and Democrat Stan Greenberg) showing Democrats losing ground to Republicans. The unnamed “Democratic nominee” once held a double-digit lead over an unnamed Republican nominee.

That lead is gone, with Democrats now having a just a 5-point edge. That poll shows McCain beating Clinton and tied with Obama.

We’ll certainly know a lot more tonight about just how well Clinton’s machine turned out women and Hispanics, and whether the hope for the party now lies with the lady who married the guy from Hope, rather than the man who embodies it.

Here in Nevada, it might be all over for Romney supporters as soon as tonight.

Nevada’s Democrats, meanwhile, might have to wait nine more months to lose.

Contact Erin Neff at eneff@reviewjournal.com or (702) 387-2906.