And then there were two

Barack Obama rolled back into town this week with an event designed to stray from what he called a “canned speech.” Instead, Obama held a canned roundtable with six supporters who tossed a few softballs to him about the economy.

Meanwhile, the Illinois senator was the first presidential candidate to air a television ad in Nevada with a 30-second spot suggesting he’s the candidate to take Washington back for the people. The ad, which features a coat-wearing Obama speechifying to a cheering, bundled crowd on a winter’s day, tries to evoke an inaugural mood. Giant flags bedeck a nearby building. The spot, “Take it back,” paints Obama as the ethical one — a candidate who is rebuffing special interests and lobbyists.

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, who still leads Obama here, is also now on the air with a 60-second spot subbed a “New Beginning.” The ad, complete with epic score and appropriate photos of the senator with children and veterans, is another example of why polls continue to show most Republicans will beat her in a head-to-head, general election matchup.

She calls for health care for all and universal pre-kindergarten. Fiscal conservatives will view that ad, with all its feel-good liberal specifics, as just more evidence to support their “tax-raiser” label.

It’s hard to do a just comparison of the two spots, given Clinton’s extra 30 seconds. I’ve yet to see either on TV, which suggests I watch the wrong shows or that neither is in high rotation. But, viewing each on the Internet, I was struck by just how each wants to court voters here.

Obama is the candidate of change. Period. Still no specifics on policy.

Clinton is the experienced one with the connections and ability to, as she puts it, begin universal health care and end the war in Iraq. Clinton’s “new beginning,” of course, is merely an end to all things Bush, not really anything new in Washington.

And Obama’s “Take it Back” is honest in sweeping terms, but fails the general reality check about the candidate’s fundraising. Sure, he’s banned money from lobbyists, but we know certain industries have heavily bankrolled his campaign, including an energy company with lots of nuclear plants.

Obama and Clinton’s top contributors this cycle are Wall Streeters sick of the Bush era. If it’s a New York-based investment firm, it’s basically hedging bets between the two Democrats. So if both candidates are in bed with Wall Street, how likely is it that we’ll see any real “New Beginning” or see anyone “Take it Back”?

With just over a month to go before the Nevada caucuses, nearly one in five state Democrats can’t figure out who to pick. Of course, plenty of voters have aligned with either Clinton or Obama, but what about the 40 percent who haven’t?

Third place in Nevada would appear to be up for grabs. Former Sen. John Edwards is putting all his hopes on Iowa and holding out for a key Nevada labor endorsement. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson is hoping to parlay third-place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire into momentum here that could challenge one of the front-runners.

Delaware Sen. Joe Biden may very well be out of the race before Nevada’s Jan. 19 caucuses, and no other candidate is registering significant support here.

The undecideds may actually be waiting for caucus day to see if their candidate can really be viable. Or maybe they’re still trying to figure out who has a better chance to beat the Republican nominee.

Plenty of voters seem to still be shopping, and it’s not clear whether the start of the ad war between the monied Democrats will entice new support or lead more voters to stray back into toss-up land.

Both Obama and Clinton have better ads than the ones they’re running here now. Given that Iowa voters head to caucuses in just over two weeks, they’re entitled to the better picks.

In one, retired Gen. Wes Clark gives a ringing endorsement of Clinton as an experienced leader who can end the war with Iraq and avert one with Iran.

Obama has a good ad running in Iowa. “Our Moment is Now” deals not just with a “country at war and a planet in peril,” but the candidate’s own chance to make history.

Sometimes momentum is hard to spot without polls. And while Obama was almost nowhere in Clark County two months ago, you can now find plenty of cars sporting his stickers and more and more people saying they’ve decided to go with him.

Clinton might have peaked here already.

The rest of the field is happy to be along for the ride, but lacking the top candidates’ bankrolls, they’re just hoping to pick up enough votes to stay on life support.

And now that the two-way race is on TV, it’ll be harder and harder for anyone else to move up.

Contact Erin Neff at (702) 387-2906 or by e-mail at eneff@reviewjournal.com.