All eyes on Nevada

A week from today, the eyes of the country will be on UNLV as seven Democratic presidential candidates take part in a two-hour debate.

Not only will CNN stage several of its news programs from Las Vegas, it’ll devote an hour of the debate to supposed live questions from so-called undecided Nevada voters.

Despite all the attention, the biggest change locally in the runup to Nevada’s Jan. 19 presidential caucuses is the subtle uptick in attention from Republicans. Tonight, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani will give the keynote address at the Keystone Corporation’s annual dinner at The Venetian.

Next week, to push back against the Democrats, Republican National Committee Chairman Mike Duncan is expected to make the local media rounds and rile up the faithful. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will also be in town for some media and a meeting with supporters at a Henderson home. Last week, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson was in town, and California Rep. Duncan Hunter was in Elko this week.

To be sure, none of this comes close to matching anything the Democratic candidates have done here. Several candidates have already been to Nevada more than 10 times apiece. But the ebb and flow of presidential visits is rolling back to the point that next week’s big CNN debate may be the last time Nevada sees most of the Democrats until the caucus is imminent.

The Nevada-or-die candidacy of New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson looks to be in its death throes. The campaign is shifting staff to Iowa.

Hillary Clinton’s campaign is chugging along in its typical hyper mode, sending out Surrogate Numero Uno this week to stump for the New York senator. Bill Clinton wasn’t just here to rally the base and reassure black voters about his wife’s candidacy. He was here to make sure the vaunted Culinary union endorsement doesn’t somehow end up in another candidate’s hands.

The former president’s private meeting with Culinary leaders could provide the wow factor Hillary Clinton needs to stave off a challenge for the endorsement from Illinois Sen. Barack Obama or even former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

The Culinary’s members have gone from presidential rubes to seasoned power brokers in just several months. It’s been nice to see all the candidates, but a former president who’s as popular as ever in his political afterlife just might have provided the star power the union was looking for. If the Culinary does endorse Clinton, what reason is there for Edwards or Obama to aggressively campaign here in the runup to Iowa? They’ve got to immediately hope their Iowa strategy is successful enough to spill into Nevada.

Next Thursday, all of the Democratic candidates participating in the debate are scheduled to speak to the Clark County Jefferson-Jackson dinner afterward. Last year such an event was inconceivable, even as Democrats made the push for an early caucus. But as the presidential nominating process plays out on a national stage, the gala dinner may prove to be the apex of Nevada’s Democratic events.

In politics, peaking too early can be as deadly as never firing at all. Of course, a lot can still happen in the next two months, squeezing politics into the holiday season and a condensed campaign calendar that still favors Iowa and New Hampshire above all other states.

Hope for the GOP

It’s possible the organizational structure being established by the Democrats will prove beneficial next year, when the party tries to knock off Republican Rep. Jon Porter, pick up a seat in the state Senate and, oh yeah, turn Nevada blue on the presidential map.

While some Republican candidates have staff here and the GOP central committee meeting had stellar attendance, the grass-roots grunt work game may, in fact, be won by the Democrats.

And when it comes to turning out voters in swing districts and targeting independent voters, it’s that type of organization (outside of the traditional union get-out-the-vote efforts) that could finally make the difference.

But the actual caucuses themselves may come off with the appearance that all things are, in fact, equal. Republicans tend to show up to party events, particularly in Elko in January. Democrats still have a hard time reaching out to voters in the rurals in good weather.

Because the GOP is setting absolutely no expectations for its caucus, it can’t lose, even if only 10,000 Republicans participate Jan. 19.

Democrats are still haunted by the early suggestion that 100,000 people would attend their caucuses. And now, even if an unprecedented 60,000 show up (on a Saturday during a holiday weekend, by the way), that early goal will still overshadow actual turnout.

It may not be an easy time to be a Republican, but the shift in momentum certainly can’t hurt the caucus buildup or the GOP’s chances at the ballot next year.

Contact Erin Neff at (702) 387-2906 or by e-mail at eneff@reviewjournal.com.