Romney climbing in Nevada, poll says
Nevada Republican voters are warming up to Mitt Romney, while Democrats have not wavered in their support for Hillary Clinton, according to a new independent national poll.
The poll released Wednesday by American Research Group, a New Hampshire-based national polling firm, put Romney in first place, with 23 percent, in a statistical tie with Rudy Giuliani, who had 21 percent among those likely to participate in the Republican presidential nominating caucus.
John McCain was tied with noncandidate Fred Thompson at 16 percent apiece.
On the Democratic side, the poll found that 40 percent of likely caucus-goers supported Clinton; John Edwards and Barack Obama were tied for second place, with 16 percent each, while Bill Richardson still had not climbed above 6 percent despite his emphasis on the state.
The poll was based on 600 telephone interviews on each side and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It was conducted from Friday to Tuesday.
The poll showed that Democratic voters in Nevada are holding steady, while Republican voters are in flux, University of Nevada, Reno, political scientist Eric Herzik said.
Clinton’s lead among Nevada Democrats appears rock-solid. Previous polls — by American Research Group in December and by the Review-Journal in early May — put her at 37 percent.
Edwards and Obama each have gained a couple of percentage points while remaining tied and failing to cut into Clinton’s lead. The May poll had Edwards at 13 percent, Obama at 12 percent.
And Richardson, who has campaigned heavily in Nevada, still did not move into double digits. "Richardson is banking a lot on a Nevada strategy, and I don’t think it’s going to work," Herzik said. "People like him, they respect him, they think he’s a good candidate, but they’re not willing to make him the nominee."
Clinton’s steadiness at the top is "bad news for the people who are behind," he said. "It means that while they may be picking up some undecideds, they’re not converting people."
The Democratic field is orderly and well-established, he said, while the Republican field remains in disarray as insiders speculate about a potential white knight such as Thompson, the former Tennessee senator and television actor.
Herzik said he is unsurprised that Romney’s numbers have climbed steadily in successive polls, from 4 percent in December to 15 percent in May to 23 percent in the June poll. He said he has seen an active grass-roots effort under way on Romney’s part that the other Republican candidates have not matched.
"Giuliani has elected officials on his leadership team, and that’s good; it helps with fundraising," Herzik said. "But they’re not out knocking on doors."
McCain has spent the most time in Nevada and hails from a neighboring state, but his support in Nevada continues to drop, from 25 percent to 19 percent to the current 16 percent. "That is really bad news for John McCain," Herzik said. "I think that reflects his campaign nationally, which has not been well-focused."
McCain also has been hurt in Nevada by his stance on immigration, which has alienated him from the Republican base, Herzik said.
The strength of Thompson’s showing, meanwhile, should not be construed as real evidence of a strong potential candidacy, Herzik said. Rather, it reflects "the thrill of the unknown without the reality of having to put together a campaign." Were he to enter the race, Thompson would face a severe disadvantage in terms of money and organization.
"The Republican Party is far more splintered than the Democrats," Herzik said. "The Democrats are arguing the nuances of issues, which health care plan is the best, when there’s 80 percent overlap and everyone agrees on universal health care. On some of the core issues for Republican voters, some of the candidates have very different opinions," such as abortion and immigration.
