State official: No ‘second wave’ yet in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations

Despite increases in hospitalizations and cases in Nevada this week, public health officials are not yet seeing evidence of a “second wave” of the coronavirus in the state, a state official said Thursday.

“Our assessment based on this data is that we are not seeing evidence of a second wave of COVID-19 here in Nevada yet,” said Caleb Cage, Nevada’s COVID-19 response director, referring to upticks in both new cases and hospitalizations seen this week.

Some of the increase in new cases can be attributed to the state’s expanding testing capacity.

Cage spoke at an online briefing for reporters several hours after the Southern Nevada Health District reported 185 new cases of COVID-19 and eight additional deaths over the preceding day in Clark County.

The new cases pushed the county’s total to 8,100 and the fatalities brought the death toll to 375, according to data posted on the district’s coronavirus web page.

The district estimates that 6,226 of those who have contracted the disease have recovered.

The number of new cases was well above the daily average of just over 141 for the preceding week, while the deaths were above the daily average of six during the period.

The Nevada Department of Health and Human Services reported 237 new cases and 10 additional deaths.

The new data added to the nvhealthresponse.nv.gov website, pushed the total confirmed cases in Nevada to 10,464 and the death toll to 459. The estimated number of recoveries is 7,723.

The new cases — the second time this week the state has reported more than 200 in one day — were above the daily average of about 175 over the preceding week. The number of fatalities also was well above the daily average of nearly three over the period.

The cumulative state positivity rate — the number of confirmed cases divided by the total number of people tested — is 5.4 percent. The rate increased earlier this week after remaining flat over the past week following steady declines over several months.

Cage said that although the percentage of positive tests had increased, it remained well under the 10 percent recommended by the World Health Organization.

In making this remark, Cage appeared to be referencing an outdated benchmark from March. In mid-May, WHO recommended test positivity rates of 5 percent or less for reopening jurisdictions where testing is relatively widespread. However, when the positivity rate in Nevada is based on all tests performed, and not on the number of people tested — some individuals are tested multiple times — Nevada’s rate falls to 4.7 percent.

The state also has seen six straight days of increased numbers of COVID-19 hospitalizations, according to data from the Nevada Hospital Association.

In the online briefing for reporters, Cage said the hospitalizations are “continuing to plateau” and remain within the expected range.

Asked to define the “expected range,” state spokewoman Meghin Delaney said in an email, “According to the Nevada Hospital Association, Nevada COVID-19 hospitalizations have decreased below the established plateau level of 340-372 hospitalized cases that has been observed during the past 14-day period.

“Confirmed cases continue to rise in small increments in the last six days, but overall the hospital infrastructure throughout the state remains in good shape with plenty of capacity and immediate capability for all levels of care,” she said.

Despite the jump in daily cases and deaths, the hospitalization rate continued to slide lower. The number of those hospitalized divided by those with confirmed COVID-19 cases stood at 16.96 percent as of Thursday’s report and has consistently trended downward since peaking at 27.50 percent on April 10.

Both the health district and the state revise their daily statistics in an effort to more accurately show when cases occurred rather than when they were reported, so the daily totals often do not match the revised figures.

In another development Thursday, public health officials in Washoe County reported 69 new COVID-19 cases and two additional deaths. The cases, the biggest one-day increase in the county since the outbreak reached Nevada on March 5, brought the total for the county to 1,893, of which 1,207 are said to have recovered. The fatalities increased the county’s death toll to 69.

Contact Mike Brunker at mbrunker@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4656. Follow @mike_brunker on Twitter. Review-Journal staff writer Mary Hynes contributed to this report.