Poll shows Laxalt, Lombardo leading in Senate, governor primaries

Former Attorney General Adam Laxalt has a commanding lead in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, and Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo has a narrow lead in the Republican primary for governor, according to a new poll.

The Club for Growth — which has endorsed Laxalt’s Senate bid — commissioned the poll by WPA Intelligence. The Review-Journal has used WPA Intelligence for polling in 2018 and 2020. WPA partner and CEO Chris Wilson has also done internal polling for Laxalt’s campaign.

It shows Laxalt with 57 percent of the Republican primary vote, followed by Sam Brown with 19 percent, and 1 percent each for Bill Hockstedler and Sharelle Mendenhall. Another 3 percent chose someone else, and 18 percent were undecided.

In the governor’s race, Lombardo leads the pack with 28 percent of the vote, with former Sen. Dean Heller next at 22 percent and North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee at 13 percent. Reno lawyer Joey Gilbert got 9 percent, and Las Vegas Councilwoman Michele Fiore had 5 percent. (Fiore dropped out of the governor’s race after the poll was conducted and is now running for state treasurer.)

Bringing up the rear, Fred Simon took 3 percent of the vote, Guy Nohra got 1 percent and 2 percent opted for another candidate; 17 percent were undecided.

The poll of 500 likely Republican primary voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Of the respondents, 50 percent identified themselves as “very conservative,” 26 percent as “somewhat conservative” and 22 percent as “moderate or liberal.” Half said they considered themselves part of the “Trump GOP,” while 38 percent considered themselves traditional Republicans. Slightly more than half the respondents were men, with 49 percent women. Pollsters contacted 55 percent of the respondents by cell phone, and 45 percent by landline.

Of Laxalt’s supporters in the Senate race, 35 percent say they will “definitely” vote for him, 15 percent say they will “probably” vote for him and another 7 percent “lean” toward him. Brown’s definite supporters stood at 10 percent, with 6 percent saying they probably will vote for him and 4 percent leaning toward voting for him.

Brown has showed a surprisingly strong ability to raise money in his race against Laxalt, who served from 2014-2018 in the attorney general’s office before mounting an unsuccessful bid against Steve Sisolak for governor. Lombardo’s lead could be more problematic; the GOP primary features 16 candidates in all, which means splitting votes in the crowded field.

The poll’s results are consistent with other recent surveys: A January poll by OH Predictive Insights for the Nevada Independent website showed Laxalt at 37 percent and Brown at 14 percent, with 49 percent unsure. A Democratic Governors Association poll also published in the Nevada Independent showed Lombardo with 26 percent, followed by Heller and Lee, with 13 percent each and Gilbert at 12 percent. Another 27 percent were “not sure.”

Contact Steve Sebelius at SSebelius@reviewjournal.com. Follow @SteveSebelius on Twitter.