PARTY LINES: Early numbers confirm it’s a close election
With only six days of early and mail voting data in the books, you can’t draw any conclusions about eventual winners.
But that doesn’t mean you can’t draw any conclusions.
We’ve been hearing for a long time that races in Nevada are going to be close, and that is borne out by the data we’re seeing so far.
In Clark County — Nevada’s most populous — Democrats led Republicans by more than 17,000 overall votes. That’s not saying very much in a county where active registered Democrats outnumber active registered Republicans by more than 126,000.
Total turnout as of Friday (which includes all early and mail ballots cast and received as of Thursday) was 13.1 percent overall. Republican turnout as a percentage of registered voters was slightly ahead of Democrats.
The story was pretty much the same in Washoe County, where Democrats led Republicans by 1,348 votes in early and mail balloting combined, as of Thursday. Turnout in Nevada’s second-most populous county was up to 14.5 percent.
As expected, Democrats were making greater use of mail balloting than Republicans: Twice as many Democrats sent in their votes by mail than did Republicans in Clark County. By contrast, Republicans were beating Democrats in in-person early voting by more than 8,000 people as of Thursday. The trend was the same in Washoe County.
And in the races for U.S. House, where the Democratic Party’s redistricting gamble is being put to its first electoral test, the numbers were also close: Democrats were leading in Congressional Districts 1, 3 and 4, but not by much. In the 1st District, Democrats outpolled Republicans by just less than 6,000 votes; in the competitive 3rd District, the Democratic lead was just 4,700. The 4th District saw the largest lead, with nearly 7,000.
Numbers compiled over the three-day holiday weekend might change things, however. Stay tuned for updates!
Speaking of the holiday
Purists know that Friday was not Nevada Day, when we celebrate the Silver State’s admission to the Union during the Civil War in 1864 (hence the state motto, “Battle Born”). But it is Nevada Day “observed,” and has been since 2000.
Why? Thank Rep. Mark Amodei, who was a state senator back in the day and introduced Senate Bill 31 in the 1999 legislative session to set the celebration on the last Friday in October, regardless of whether or not that is the state’s actual birthday, which just happens to coincide with Halloween.
Not everybody agreed with Amodei at the time: Two Democrats — Bob Coffin and Valerie Wiener — voted against the bipartisan change in the Senate. In the Assembly, 11 lawmakers from both parties voted nay, including future Speakers Barbara Buckley and Richard Perkins.
Today, there’s still a big divide in Nevada over the proper day to celebrate Nevada’s admission. We’re traditionalists, so look for some heavy Nevada regalia on Monday from us!
Endorsement update
Vermont U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders was in Nevada on Friday to stump for fellow Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, who is locked in a close re-election race with Republican former Attorney General Adam Laxalt.
You may wonder why Sanders of all the potential people in the Democratic Party? But it’s no accident: Remember, Sanders has always been very popular in Nevada. He won the state’s last presidential caucus in 2020 with 46.8 percent of the vote, easily defeating the eventual Democratic nominee Joe Biden, who only garnered 20.2 percent.
And, perhaps counterintuitively, Sanders, 81, fires up the young, progressive base in ways that the more centrist Cortez Masto perhaps does not. In fact, compared to Sanders, Cortez Masto is downright conservative, which is another plus in having Sanders endorse her, at least from afar. (There were no joint appearances between Sanders and Cortez Masto during Bernie’s barnstorming on Friday.)
Meanwhile, Laxalt had a special guest of his own: Former Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democratic presidential candidate who announced recently she’s leaving the Democratic Party because it’s run by an elite cabal of warmongers who are driven by cowardly wokeness.
She appeared at a “Ladies for Laxalt” event at Stoney’s Rockin’ Country on Friday. And Democrats switching over to support Republicans is definitely a message that Laxalt wants to send as voters are going to the polls.
On paper, he’s an unlikely choice for crossover voting. He was the face of the stolen election movement in Nevada, although he finally acknowledged that Biden is the legitimate president. He’s been endorsed by, and campaigned with, former President Donald Trump. And he’s good friends with (and a former roommate in naval JAG training of) Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. None of those things exactly scream “crossover appeal.”
But these are not usual times, and given the closeness of the early voting numbers and the polls (Real Clear Politics average: Laxalt, 47.6 percent, Cortez Masto, 46.4 percent), every single vote counts.
Miscellany
Republican attorney general candidate Sigal Chattah has been endorsed by Kash Patel, the Trump-era chief of staff at the Defense Department. “Sigal is a patriot and firebrand who is pro law enforcement, anti-mandates, and someone who will stand up to federal government overreach,” Patel said in a statement. Patel is also know for launching a clothing line that bears his name, stylized as “K$H,” which logo appears on T-shirts, hats and socks, to benefit his “legal offense trust.” So, let’s hope Chattah got some merch out of the deal. … The Republican Jewish Coalition’s annual leadership meeting Nov. 18-19 is going to have more potential presidential candidates than Iowa in January. On the list of attendees are ex-Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, ex-United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida, Govs. Ron DeSantis of Florida, Chris Sununu of New Hampshire and Glenn Youngkin of Virginia and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
Contact Steve Sebelius at SSebelius@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0253. Follow @SteveSebelius on Twitter.
