Harris, Trump in statistical dead heat in Nevada, new survey shows

The U.S. presidential race is in a statistical dead heat in Nevada and other battleground states, according to a survey conducted this week by Emerson College Polling and The Hill.

The poll, which surveyed 1,168 registered voters in Nevada Aug. 25-28, shows Vice President Kamala Harris with 49 percent and former President Trump at 48 percent, well within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

Three percent of voters responded “other” or were undecided. Those remaining undecided voters were leaning toward supporting Trump, 58.4 percent to Harris’ 27.9 percent, according to the poll.

The poll, conducted after the Democratic National Convention, showed a marked gain for the Democrats over previous polls with President Joe Biden heading the ticket. Biden was the pick for 41-42 percent of those polled in March, June and July, compared with 45-47 percent for Trump.

One other notable change in this month’s poll results: The number of Nevadans who said they were undecided or preferred another candidate fell from 12-14 percent in three earlier polls to 3 percent in late August.

Incumbents looking strong

In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Sen. Jacky Rosen held a 10 percentage-point lead over Republican Sam Brown, according to the poll.

All of Nevada’s incumbent House members had substantial leads in their races, according to the survey. Democrat Rep. Dina Titus was leading Republican Mark Robertson 46.7 to 31.7 percent in the 1st District; Republican Rep. Mark Amodei was leading Greg Kidd 43.6 to 12.9 percent in the 2nd District; Democratic Rep. Susie Lee was leading Republican Drew Johnson 47.4 to 34.6 percent in the 3rd District; and Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford was leading Republican John J. Lee 45.7 to 36.1 percent in the 4th District.

The same pollsters surveyed registered voters from the seven battleground states that ultimately could decide November’s election, including Nevada. All those races fell within the statistical margin of error for each state. Data showed Harris slightly ahead of Trump in Georgia, 49 to 48 percent, and in Michigan, 50 to 47 percent. Trump was ahead of Harris in Arizona, 50 to 47 percent; in North Carolina, 49 to 48 percent; and in Wisconsin, 49 to 48 percent. The two candidates both had 48 percent support in Pennsylvania, according to the survey results.

Looking deeper in Nevada

In Nevada, independent voters preferred Trump by 6 percentage points and male voters preferred him by 7 percentage points.

Registered voters under the age of 30 preferred Harris over Trump 70 to 28 percent. Women preferred Harris by 9 percentage points.

The top three issues identified by Nevada voters were the economy (37 percent), housing affordability (15 percent) and immigration (13 percent).

Pollsters asked voters if Project 2025 — a set of conservative policy proposals Trump has distanced himself from — “makes them more or less likely to support Donald Trump, or if it has no impact.” They determined that “Overall, a plurality in all states says it makes no difference or they are not familiar,” according to the poll.

Nevada voters were asked about the proposal to eliminate federal taxes on tips, which would impact Las Vegas’ hospitality industry. The proposal was first floated by Trump in Las Vegas, and Harris at her local rally said she, too, supports the measure, in addition to an increase in the federal minimum wage.

Nevadans surveyed in the poll supported eliminating the tax on tips 71 to 17 percent. Twelve percent said they were unsure.

Among surveyed registered voters in Nevada, Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo held an approval rating of 39.5 percent and a 29.9 percent disapproval rating.

Biden had a disapproval rating of 54.2 percent, compared with 39.7 percent who said they approved his performance.

Contact Ricardo Torres-Cortez at rtorres@reviewjournal.com.