Election guarantees legislative changes in Nevada

CARSON CITY – Change is coming to the Nevada Legislature. After the Nov. 6 election, you will need to carry around campaign photos if you want to address many of the state lawmakers by name.

Of the 21 state senators, at least 10 will be new. Of the 42 Assembly members, 10 or more also will be rookies.

And all four leaders in the two houses will be replaced with newcomers in the 2013 session.

Based on past elections, two or more incumbents likely will be benched by voters. That means at least one-third of the legislators will be new.

Las Vegas Democrats Steven Horsford and John Oceguera are out as state Senate majority leader and Assembly speaker, respectively, because of their moves to win seats in Congress.

Assembly Minority Leader Pete Goicoechea, R-Eureka, is done with the lower house as he tries to win a state Senate seat.

And Senate Minority Leader Mike McGinness, R-Fallon, is ineligible to run for another term.

More than new faces are at stake this year. Which party takes control is important, since the winners name the committee chairs and hold a majority membership advantage on each committee. The chairs decide which bills are heard and can elect not to hear bills from minority party members.

Decisions made by the 2013 Legislature will be critical since the state is slowly emerging from a recession that led to cuts in public education and state employee salaries for two consecutive sessions.

Moves are afoot to provide more money for education through a new business tax.

While Gov. Brian Sandoval opposes a proposed business tax, he wants to extend for two more years $600 million in business and sales taxes that otherwise would expire on July 1. He also has pledged to make no further education cuts.

LARGE TURNOVER

The large turnover is due in part to the fact that in 2013, for the first time, every state senator will be affected by the constitutional amendment limiting them to 12 years in their house.

The Assembly went through term limit changes last year.

Term limits take out four longtime state senators – Republicans Dean Rhoads and McGinness, along with Democrats Mike Schneider and Valerie Wiener – with 94 years of combined legislative service.

But the turnover in 2013 will be far from a record. In 2011, 21 new legislators took office, and another nine were former Assembly members who won state Senate seats and a senator who returned to the Assembly.

In the first half-century after Nevada attained statehood, more than half the Legislature turned over each session, largely because members had a sense that one or two terms was enough.

With the state Senate war horses gone and other seats opening up, five current Assembly members – Democrats Tick Segerblom, Kelvin Atkinson and Debbie Smith, along with Republicans Scott Hammond and Goicoechea – are making stabs for those seats.

SPLIT, SURGE HELP DEMOCRATS

As it stands now, Democrats hold an 11-10 advantage in the state Senate and a 26-16 advantage in the Assembly. Democrats have controlled the Assembly in every session since 1987 except for 1995, when the parties tied. Barring a major reversal, they will control it again in 2013.

But both parties are throwing hundreds of thousands of dollars into state Senate races, particularly in districts 5, 6, 9, 15 and 18, to gain control.

The Democrats’ chances of gaining seats have improved in recent months with the split in the state Republican Party between Ron Paul and Mitt Romney factions. Both battled for the Republican presidential nomination that Romney won.

Between May and the end of August, Democrats added 30,163 people to their registered voter list, compared with 13,209 for Republicans.

The surge has continued in September, with 16,166 Democrats registering through Sept. 17, compared with 7,001 Republicans in Clark and Washoe counties, which are home to more than 80 percent of the state’s voters.

That could make a difference in races where party registration is nearly equal. The latest registration figures show that Democrats are the party with the most registered voters in 26 of the 42 Assembly districts, a good indication that the Assembly will remain Democratic after the Nov. 6 election.

In the state Senate, Democrats hold a registration advantage in 13 of the 21 districts, or two more than the current number of Democratic senators. If they gain three Republican-held seats in November, the Democrats will hold a veto-proof two-thirds majority.

PARTY PREDICTIONS

Eric Herzik, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno, said the surge in Democratic registrations means some of the four Clark County state Senate seats that Republicans in the spring figured on winning could go to the Democrats.

“Republicans will downplay it, any party would, but the gap (between them and Democrats) is growing.” Herzik said. “The Democrats are doing better right now. Republicans tend to be ‘higher yield’ voters; they are more likely to turn out to vote. But if Democrats build up enough of a cushion, that is canceled out.”

State Sen. Mo Denis, the likely Senate Democratic leader in 2013, said his party’s polling shows Democrats will win all five of the heavily contested Senate seats.

“More people are identifying as Democrats,” said Denis of Las Vegas. “They understand our message. They identify with our priorities. Our party is optimistic about the future. Things are getting better. The message of Republicans is that things are bad.”

But state Sen. Michael Roberson of Las Vegas, the presumptive Senate Republican leader in 2013, said his polls show Republicans winning four of the five key Senate races. They are behind only in the Senate District 9 race in Clark County which pits Democrat Justin Jones against Republican Mari St. Martin, but will win that seat, he said.

Roberson acknowledges the party is not doing a good job in registering voters.

“I can’t do anything about that,” added Roberson. “It makes our job more difficult. But we will win with independents. More Republicans than Democrats vote straight party tickets. Democrats are more likely to vote for the president and then leave.”

In many Clark County districts, Democrats have overwhelming registration advantages, while rural Nevada seats are predominantly Republican.

In Washoe County, many districts are heavily Democratic and others heavily Republican.

As an example of the registration imbalance, Republican Brent Leavitt is running against incumbent Democrat Dina Neal in Assembly District 7 in Clark County, where Democrats hold a 3-to-1 registration advantage. He better believe in miracles.

Because both parties realized they had no shot at winning seats in districts where the other party had a big registration advantage, nine members of the Assembly – four Republicans and five Democrats – have no opposition in the general election.

HEAVILY CONTESTED RACES

Here are summaries of the most heavily contested legislative races:

■ Assembly District 37: Republicans hold a 155-registered voter advantage in what used to be a heavily Democratic district in Clark County. Court-approved redistricting changed it into a district with a narrow Republican lead. But this is the district represented by Democratic Assembly Majority Leader Marcus Conklin, the presumptive Assembly speaker in 2013. If Conklin loses to Republican Wesley Duncan, Democrats might turn to William Horne as their speaker. He would become the first African-American speaker. Duncan’s victory would be a major boost to his party.

■ State Senate District 15: This Washoe County district pits Republican Greg Brower, appointed to his seat last year by the County Commission, against Democrat Sheila Leslie, a longtime legislator who moved out of her predominantly Democratic district into Brower’s district. As of Sept. 17, Republicans held a 1,272-registered voter advantage. The seat, held by the late Sen. Bill Raggio for nearly 40 years, has gone Republican since the 1960s.

■ Assembly District 31: This Washoe County district is represented by Democrat Richard “Skip” Daly of Sparks. But because of redistricting, it was transformed from a Democratic district to one where Republicans hold a 1,450-registered voter advantage.

■ Assembly District 4: In this Clark County district, Republican incumbent Richard McArthur gave up his seat to make an unsuccessful primary fight for the state Senate. Redistricting has reduced the Republican edge to seven registered voters, giving Democrat Kenneth Evans a fighting chance in a race against Republican Michele Fiore and Independent American Jonathan Hansen.

■ Assembly District 35: This was a safe Republican seat in rural Nevada held by Goicoechea. But because of re­districting it is a Clark County seat where Democrats hold a 1,158-registered voter advantage. That makes Democrat James Healey’s chances better in a race against Republican Tom Blanchard.

■ Assembly District 21: This is a Clark County seat that Republican Mark Sherwood decided to vacate. Democrats hold a 1,757-registered voter advantage, boosting the chances of Democrat Andy Eisen in a race against Republican Becky Harris and Independent American Les McKay.

■ State Senate District 9: This is the Clark County seat represented by Republican Elizabeth Halseth until she resigned in February. But Democrats have a 3,173-registered voter advantage, up from 1,917 in May, giving Democrat Justin Jones an advantage in the race against Republican Mari St. Martin.

■ State Senate District 5: Democrat Shirley Breeden beat incumbent Republican Joe Heck by 765 votes in 2008. But she is giving up the seat to stay home to care for her ill mother. Former Democratic Sen. Joyce Woodhouse faces Republican Steve Kirk, an ex-Henderson City Council member. Democrats held a 4,495-registered voter advantage when Breeden beat Heck. Their advantage now is 2,479, up from 1,680 in May.

■ State Senate District 6: Democrat Allison Copening decided against running for re-election. She beat Republican incumbent Bob Beers in 2008 by 2,811 votes in an election where Democrats had a 1,714-registered voter advantage. Now the Democrats’ advantage is 3,315, giving Democrat Benny Yerushalmi an advantage in a race against Republican Mark Hutchison.

■ State Senate District 18: This was a pre­dominantly Republican seat in rural Nevada held by McGinness. Through redistricting it now is in Clark County. Republicans hold a 1,134-registered voter advantage, giving Republican Scott Hammond, now an Assembly member, the edge over Democrat Kelli Ross.

Contact Capital Bureau Chief Ed Vogel at evogel@reviewjournal.com or 775-687-3901.