New COVID-19 cases, positivity rate continue to fall in Clark County

Clark County on Tuesday saw significant decreases in two major COVID-19 metrics, with both new cases of the disease and the test positivity rate registering substantial drops during the preceding day.

The 458 new coronavirus cases reported by the Southern Nevada Health District were within the recent range for the metric, but the two-week moving average of new cases registered another solid decline, falling to 383 per day from 399 on Monday, according to state data. It has now dropped nearly 68 percent from its recent high of 1,182 on Aug. 12.

The county’s 14-day test positivity rate, which tracks the percentage of people tested for COVID-19 who are found to be infected, dropped 0.2 percentage point to 6.7 percent. That rate is down nearly 55 percent from its recent high of 14.8 percent on Aug. 15.

The sharp declines in both metrics are particularly encouraging, since they are considered leading indicators that track people at the outset of their illness, rather than hospitalization and death statistics, which tend to lag by weeks or months.

The latter metrics also are falling, but more slowly.

The two week moving average of COVID-19 deaths in the county was 11 per day as of Tuesday’s report, down 50 percent from the metric’s recent high of 22 on Aug. 28, the state data show.

The number of people hospitalized with confirmed or suspected cases of COVID-19 in the county dropped by one, from 609 to 608. That figure is down nearly 48 percent from its recent high of 1,168 on Aug. 10.

State and county health agencies often redistribute daily data after it is reported to better reflect the date of death or onset of symptoms, which is why the moving-average trend lines frequently differ from daily reports and are considered better indicators of the direction of the outbreak.

The improving metrics mean the county, which has recorded a total of 322,524 COVID-19 cases and 5,701 deaths, is making progress toward exiting the state mask mandate for crowded indoor areas.

Positivity rate now ‘moderate’

The 14-day average positivity rate of 6.7 percent translates to 7.4 percent using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s preferred seven-day average, which puts the county in the “moderate” transmission category in the federal agency’s risk classification system.

But the rate needs to remain low and be accompanied by a corresponding decline in the county’s rate of new COVID-19 cases for the county to exit the mask mandate. To do that a county must record back-to-back weeks with a positivity rate of 8.0 percent or lower and record fewer than 50 new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents. The latter number stood at 143.69 cases per 100,000 on Sunday, the last time the figure was updated on the CDC website.

That number was nearly unchanged from the previous report a week earlier.

Data guide: COVID-19’s impact on Nevada

State officials on Tuesday updated the mask guidelines to confirm that all 17 counties will be required to mask up for at least another week. Most of the state remains in the “high” transmission tier, but Lincoln County is now in the low-risk tier. If it remains there for another week, the mask mandate will be lifted.

The state, meanwhile, reported 126 new COVID-19 cases and 33 deaths over the preceding day — the former an artificially low number that resulted from a reporting glitch. A spokesman for the state Department of Health and Human Services said Washoe County removed an unknown number of probable COVID-19 positives that were erroneously included in its preceding report.

That brought state totals to 424,326 cases and 7,221 deaths, according to the agency.

The state’s 14-day moving average of new cases also declined, dropping to 649 per day from 702 on Monday. The two-week average for fatalities, however, rose from 10 to 11 per day.

The state’s two-week test positivity rate also was down 0.2 percentage points to 8.6 percent.

A new state report dated Sunday showed that there have been a total of 740 so-called breakthrough cases in the state. A breakthrough case refers to a confirmed case of COVID-19 in someone who is fully vaccinated. That was 48 more than the week earlier.

Following CDC guidance, the state only reports breakthrough cases that result in hospitalization or death. That means there many such cases go unreported.

Nevada also reported 20 additional breakthrough deaths, bringing the total to 182 — or just under 0.03 of the total fatalities. Sixty-five percent of those deaths occurred in people over the age of 70.

Hospitalizations also falling statewide

The state also reported that 849 people in Nevada were hospitalized with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 cases, 12 fewer than on Monday. That figure has been dropping slowly but steadily since late August.

State health officials announced Monday that Nevada would start reporting results from rapid antigen tests on the state’s COVID-19 dashboard. That initially added about 9,500 “probable” cases to the dashboard on Monday, though the “confirmed” case count, which is what the Review-Journal is continuing to track, was unaffected.

Rapid antigen tests can return results in about 15 minutes, but are considered less accurate than traditional molecular tests.

As of Tuesday’s report, 54.35 percent of Nevadans 12 and older had been fully vaccinated. The rate was 53.57 percent in Clark County, state data show. That number dropped on Monday because the state updated its vaccination information to remove doses administered to out-of-state residents and make other adjustments.

Contact Jonah Dylan at jdylan@reviewjournal.com. Follow @TheJonahDylan on Twitter.