Democrats confront reality of Sandoval’s no-new-taxes pledge

The best part of State of the State speeches are not those mind-numbing numbers, but the body language of the loyal opposition in the audience, which foretells the future.

In Gov. Brian Sandoval’s speech Monday, Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford made it clear from his stone-cold, unresponsive stare that Sandoval’s cost-cutting proposals for education were going nowhere with him. Horsford didn’t even look pleased when the governor praised him by name.

The day after Sandoval’s speech — delivered in a just-the-facts, ma’am style — Horsford said his budget was built on “trickery.”

Meanwhile, Assembly Speaker John Oceguera was far more conciliatory in his official response, which he stressed was not a rebuttal.

“Governor, we agree with you on many of the issues you presented,” he said in a Teddy-bear friendly fashion, listing areas of agreement.

The two reactions, one furious, the other oozing civility (and there’s nothing wrong with either one) hint the Democratic leaders are poised to play bad cop/good cop during the 2011 Legislature, with Horsford the tough talker and Oceguera the conciliator.

On television it was hard to tell, even when the camera panned across the Assembly chambers, whether Sandoval’s applause lines were getting bipartisan support or whether GOP lawmakers were leading the charge. You could see the applause by Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, a fellow Republican, even though the camera cut off his head. But it didn’t seem as if all the lines winning applause, such as ending teacher tenure, were really widely supported.

The spirit of civility over President Barack Obama’s State of the Union speech Tuesday made it more difficult to judge an idea’s popularity. In yesteryear, by watching the opposing sides applaud or not, or stand or sit like frozen Popsicles, even the most uninformed observer could see what probably would fly and what would not, depending on who had the majority.

With Obama, you could judge the popularity of his ideas by whether House Speaker John Boehner applauded or frowned. Freeze government spending for five years? Boehner made it clear that’s not good enough. Raise taxes on the top 2 percent of the wealthy? Not if Boehner can help it.

While Vice President Joe Biden acted as the cheerful bobble head on the left, Boehner was mostly the sun-kissed sphinx on the right, sending cold vibes toward Obama’s talk about energy-related issues.

Back in Nevada, the speaker from Las Vegas made it clear Democrats will fight to raise taxes to prevent cuts in education and will fight to protect local governments from being raided by state officials looking for easy money.

“We can’t stay at the bottom of funding and get to the top of education. The governor is trying to save money by cutting per-pupil spending, and we understand that, but he is setting us on a course to drop from a lowly ranking of 46th among the states to becoming dead last. The cuts must end,” Oceguera said.

Will Oceguera and Horsford be able to soften Sandoval’s proposed cuts by coming up with a tax package acceptable to two-thirds of the lawmakers in each house, blocking a governor’s veto?

Highly unlikely.

Sandoval didn’t reveal his cut-to-the-bone plan until after he was elected, which was smart politically. But many of those who voted for this pleasant and attractive man had no idea he would be such a toughie on the budget. He seemed so nice. But when he said no new taxes, he meant it.

Once people realize the ramifications of that pledge, that Mr. Nice Guy veneer might tarnish.

Yet the reality is Oceguera spent more time agreeing with the governor than disagreeing. But then, he’s the good cop in this scenario.

Jane Ann Morrison’s column appears Monday, Thursday and Saturday. E-mail her at Jane@reviewjournal.com or call (702) 383-0275. She also blogs at lvrj.com/blogs/morrison.