36°F
weather icon Partly Cloudy

Fed attempts to tame inflation with most aggressive rate hike in 22 years

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve intensified its fight against the worst inflation in 40 years by raising its benchmark short-term interest rate by a half-percentage point Wednesday — its most aggressive move since 2000 — and signaling further large rate hikes to come.

The increase in the Fed’s key rate raised it to a range of 0.75% to 1%, the highest point since the pandemic struck two years ago.

The Fed also announced that it will start reducing its huge $9 trillion balance sheet, which consists mainly of Treasury and mortgage bonds. Those holdings more than doubled after the pandemic recession hit as the Fed bought trillions in bonds to try to hold down long-term borrowing rates. Reducing the Fed’s holdings will have the effect of further raising loan costs throughout the economy.

All told, the Fed’s credit tightening will likely mean higher loan rates for many consumers and businesses over time, including for mortgages, credit cards and auto loans. With prices for food, energy and consumer goods accelerating, the Fed’s goal is to cool spending — and economic growth — by making it more expensive for individuals and businesses to borrow. The central bank hopes that higher borrowing costs will slow spending enough to tame inflation yet not so much as to cause a recession.

It will be a delicate balancing act. The Fed has endured widespread criticism that it was too slow to start tightening credit, and many economists are skeptical that it can avoid causing a recession.

In their statement Wednesday, the central bank’s policymakers said they are “highly attentive to inflation risks.” The statement also noted that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is worsening inflation pressures by raising oil and food prices. It added that “COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions,” which could further boost inflation.

Inflation, according to the Fed’s preferred gauge, reached 6.6% last month, the highest point in four decades. Inflation has been accelerated by a combination of robust consumer spending, chronic supply bottlenecks and sharply higher gas and food prices, exacerbated by Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Starting June 1, the Fed said it would allow up to $48 billion in bonds to mature without replacing them, a pace that would reach $95 billion by September. At September’s pace, its balance sheet would shrink by about $1 trillion a year.

Chair Jerome Powell has said he wants to quickly raise the Fed’s rate to a level that neither stimulates nor restrains economic growth. Fed officials have suggested that they will reach that point, which the Fed says is about 2.4%, by year’s end.

The Fed’s credit tightening is already having some effect on the economy. Sales of existing homes sank 2.7% from February to March, reflecting a surge in mortgage rates related, in part, to the Fed’s planned rate hikes. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has jumped 2 percentage points just since the start of the year, to 5.1%.

Yet by most measures, the overall economy remains healthy. This is especially true of the U.S. job market: Hiring is strong, layoffs are few, unemployment is near a five-decade low and the number of job openings has reached a record high.

Powell has pointed to the widespread availability of jobs as evidence that the labor market is tight — “to an unhealthy level” that would tend to fuel inflation. The Fed char is betting that higher rates can reduce those openings, which would presumably slow wage increases and ease inflationary pressures, without triggering mass layoffs.

For now, with hiring robust — the economy has added at least 400,000 jobs for 11 straight months — and employers grappling with labor shortages, wages are rising at a roughly 5% annual pace. Those pay raises are driving steady consumer spending despite spiking prices. In March, consumers increased their spending 0.2% even after adjusting for inflation.

Even if the Fed’s benchmark rate were to go as high as 2.5% by year’s end, Powell said last month, the policymakers may still tighten credit further — to a level that would restrain growth — “if that turns out to be appropriate.”

Financial markets are pricing in a rate as high as 3.6% by mid-2023, which would be the highest in 15 years. Shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet will add another layer of uncertainty surrounding how much the Fed’s actions may weaken the economy.

Complicating the Fed’s task is a slowdown in global growth. COVID-19 lockdowns in China are threatening to cause a recession in the world’s second-largest economy. And the European Union is facing higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

What’s more, other central banks around the world are also raising rates, a trend that could further imperil global growth. On Thursday, the Bank of England is expected to raise its key rate for the fourth straight time. The Reserve Bank of Australia increased its rate Tuesday for the first time in 11 years.

And the European Central Bank, which is grappling with slower growth than in the United States or the United Kingdom, may raise rates in July, economists expect.

MORE STORIES
MOST READ
Exco Sidebar
THE LATEST
Court upholds $5M award against President-elect Trump

The 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals issued a written opinion upholding the award that the Manhattan jury granted to E. Jean Carroll for defamation and sexual abuse.

Linda Lavin, star of the sitcom ‘Alice,’ dies at 87

She died in Los Angeles on Sunday of complications from recently discovered lung cancer, her representative, Bill Veloric, told The Associated Press in an email.

Las Vegas woman dies after fire at Tyson Foods plant in Georgia

A Las Vegas woman died and two other people were hospitalized with injuries after a fire at a Tyson Foods plant in southwest Georgia, state officials said Friday.

Netanyahu has surgery to remove his prostate

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu underwent successful surgery Sunday to have his prostate removed, according to hospital officials.

Former President Jimmy Carter dies at 100

Jimmy Carter, the peanut farmer who won the presidency in the wake of the Watergate scandal and Vietnam War, has died. He was 100 years old.

Jetliner crashes while landing in South Korea, killing 179

A jetliner skidded off a runway, slammed into a concrete fence and burst into flames Sunday in South Korea after its landing gear apparently failed to deploy.

Israel detains director of northern Gaza hospital

Israel’s army detained the director of one of northern Gaza’s last functioning hospital, Palestinian medical officials said Saturday.

Brightline train collides with fire truck in Florida

A high-speed passenger train collided with a fire truck at a crossing Saturday morning in Florida, injuring three firefighters and at least a dozen train passengers, authorities said.