Plenty of 2016 races to draw out Hispanic voters in Nevada
Hillary Clinton signaled with her first Nevada hires how important growing and winning the Latino vote is to her presidential campaign here.
Her top two staffers, state director Emmy Ruiz and organizing director Jorge Neri, helped President Barack Obama score a record high 70 percent of Nevada Hispanic votes in 2012. And Ruiz worked as Clinton’s outreach director to the Latino and other communities in 2008, too.
Besides Clinton, there will be plenty of other reasons for Latinos to turn out in record numbers for the 2016 election, say insiders who predict Hispanics will account for 20 percent of the Nevada electorate, or one out of every five votes cast in the West’s most competitive battleground state.
The 2016 ballot will include for the first time top-tier Hispanic candidates for U.S. Senate and Congress and may feature a competitive Democratic Party primary battle between two up-and-coming Latinos seeking a House seat: state Sen. Ruben Kihuen and former Assemblywoman Lucy Flores, both of Las Vegas.
“We’re going to build a campaign here in Nevada that’s reflective of the state,” said Ruiz, in her first interview as Clinton’s campaign director in Nevada, where 30 percent of the population is Hispanic. “We’re very focused on earning every vote. Anyone who wants to be part of our campaign is welcome. We will be diverse in our approach.”
TAKING REID’S LEAD
U.S. Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., early on recognized the importance of the Latino community and its voters in Nevada. He rebuilt the Nevada Democratic Party with an emphasis on voter registration and growing the party’s electorate in rapidly expanding minority communities. Reid credits Hispanics with giving him the winning edge in his 2010 re-election race against Republican Sharron Angle.
In 1994, Nevada’s electorate was more than 90 percent white. In 2012, white voters made up 67 percent of the electorate. During the same period, the Latino share of the electorate grew from 5 percent to 15 percent or more, according to Latino Decisions, a Seattle-based Latino political opinion research company. Some organizations believe the Latino share of the vote hit an even higher 17 percent to 18 percent in 2012 thanks to Obama voters.
At any rate, the number of Latino voters has grown rapidly each cycle with the low-turnout 2014 midterm election the exception. Last year, many Latinos and Democrats stayed home with Hispanics accounting for only 10 percent of the Nevada electorate, Latino Decisions reports.
As a result, Republicans took over all of state government for the first time since 1929, winning the governorship and all top state offices and taking majority control of the Nevada Senate and Assembly. Republicans also ousted an incumbent Democratic congressman.
David Damore, a University of Nevada, Las Vegas professor who works with Latino Decisions, said the 2014 election demonstrated that Democrats can’t take the Latino vote for granted and must work hard to register voters, engage the community and get out the vote.
“These voters have the potential to sway close elections if turnout exceeds expectations,” Damore said, pointing to 2010 when Hispanics saved Reid’s career. “And they continue to break strongly for the blue team. With this said, these voters are particularly critical for the Democrats. Without large margins among minority voters and strong minority turnout, the Dems do not win in states like” Nevada, he added, pointing to 2014.
Andres Ramirez, a consultant to congressional candidate Kihuen and a longtime political operative in Nevada, agreed that it takes consistent attention to Hispanic voters to keep them engaged. He predicted 2016 will be a banner year, hitting 20 percent Latino turnout or more.
“We’re definitely going to see the highest Latino turnout in Nevada history,” Ramirez said, but he added that Hispanic candidates such as Kihuen attract more Latino voters but can’t count on just that demographic to guarantee victory. “You have to build a campaign that’s about winning both the primary and general elections.”
Flores, who’s expected to challenge Kihuen in the Democratic primary for the 4th Congressional District, was one of the victims of low Latino and Democratic turnout in 2014. She badly lost a race for lieutenant governor against then-state Sen. Mark Hutchison, R-Las Vegas.
Hutchison was backed by GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval and raised more than $2.4 million, or more than three times as much as Flores did. He also managed to win endorsements from some key Hispanic business groups, including the Latin Chamber of Commerce.
The biggest victim of the 2014 election’s drop-off in Hispanic voters may have been former U.S. Rep. Steven Horsford, D-Nev., who represented the 4th Congressional District, which is 30 percent Hispanic by population. The district also leans Democratic, but Horsford lost to Cresent Hardy, who was an assemblyman from rural Mesquite.
The 4th District covers the northern part of Clark County, where it’s heavily Hispanic and where three-fourths of the voters live, but also stretches across another six rural counties that are heavily Republican.
HARDY’S SEAT TARGETED
Democrats believe they have a good chance of ousting Hardy in 2016, particularly if Hispanic turnout is as high as expected. If Kihuen or Flores won the seat, they would become Nevada’s first Hispanic member of Congress in the state’s 150-plus year history.
Another boon to Latino turnout next year could be the race to replace Reid, who has announced he’ll retire rather than run for a sixth term. He immediately endorsed former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, whose father, Manny, was a renowned tourism executive in Las Vegas.
It’s unclear whether Cortez will face any tough Democratic primary competition, although U.S. Rep. Dina Titus, D-Nev., is considering the race from her perch in the safe 1st Congressional District.
Nevada has never had a Hispanic or female U.S. senator.
It’s also unclear which top Republican may run for the U.S. Senate seat, as the GOP sees the seat as a good pickup opportunity with Reid leaving.
Republicans’ ideal Senate candidate would be Sandoval, who was Nevada’s first Hispanic governor. He, too, has made significant gains among the Latino electorate. He went from winning 15 percent of the Latino vote in 2010 when he first ran for governor to 47 percent last year, according to exit polls conducted by Latino Decisions. Sandoval had a weak Democratic opponent last year.
But Sandoval has said he has no interest in running for U.S. Senate and would like to complete his second, four-year term. He’s also a potential vice presidential pick or Cabinet prospect.
U.S. Rep. Joe Heck, R-Nev., has said he’s also not interested in the Senate race, although the GOP might try to woo him as a potentially strong challenger. He has won election three times to the 3rd Congressional District, a swing district in Southern Nevada where he has gained some cross-over appeal.
Other potential Senate contenders include Lt. Gov. Hutchison and state Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson, R-Las Vegas. Las Vegas City Councilman Bob Beers already has announced he’s running.
REPUBLICANS THINKING HISPANIC
No matter how the election shakes out, the Republican Party no longer plans to cede the Hispanic vote to Democrats, GOP officials said.
The Republican National Committee has had a full-time staffer, Will Batista, on the ground in Nevada since before the 2012 election. He’s been focused on Hispanic outreach since the run-up to the 2014 election and he plans to stay in that role through at least 2016. In the past, the RNC would send staff members to key states in the final months before election day, without establishing roots or long-term relationships in communities. Then the GOP would pull up stakes until the next election.
“We cannot expect Hispanic voters to support Republicans if they’re not hearing from us,” Batista said. “So the first part of this is to be in the community, to communicate our message and really listen to what they’re concerned about. The Hispanic community is not monolithic.”
Although immigration has long been a major issue in the Hispanic community, polls show Latinos are just as concerned about the economy, jobs and education as other voters are.
Jennifer Sevilla Korn, deputy political director at the RNC, said Hispanics like GOP ideas such as school choice, for example. The GOP also is more popular among Hispanic small-business owners who oppose over-regulation and high taxes, she noted.
Nationally, the Republican Party has been reaching out more to Hispanic and other traditionally Democratic-leaning groups since the disastrous 2012 election, Korn said.
The RNC started with data collection and identifying Hispanic voters, moved to a second “engagement” phase and then a third “persuasion” phase aimed at winning voters for GOP candidates, according to Republican officials involved in the Latino outreach effort.
Republicans have attended 2,000 Hispanic events across the country, reached 1.3 million Latinos and made 1.6 million door-to-door contacts with members of the community, Korn said.
“We want to be integrated in the politics and communities,” she said, mentioning gathering places ranging from churches to business chambers. “Republicans are competing for every vote like you haven’t seen in a while.”
In Nevada, both parties will need to compete for the Hispanic vote and other minorities for some time to come. With population growth, Nevada will one day soon become a majority-minority state with less than 50 percent of the population identifying themselves as white.
Damore, of UNLV and Latino Decisions, said Republicans are likely to continue facing a harder time appealing to Hispanic voters.
Both Latinos and Asians, another growing minority in Nevada, support a more activist role for government, especially for education and health care, which aligns more with Democratic ideals, according to research done by Latino Decisions, Damore said.
“They see a role for government in providing the resources for individuals to do better,” Damore said. “In addition to alienating these voters on immigration, the GOP’s positions on taxes and spending further drive these voters away.”
As for social issues such as gay marriage, Damore said they don’t drive Latinos at the ballot box as much as Republicans would like. That might be one reason many Republicans are dropping all-out opposition to same-sex marriage as most courts across the country rule state bans are unconstitutional.
It’s “just wishful thinking by the red team” that they can win Hispanic hearts and minds on social issues, Damore concluded.
Contact Laura Myers at lmyers@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2919. Find her on Twitter: @lmyerslvrj.
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