Easing COVID rules will cause Nevada cases to climb, but how high?

Nevada public health officials say they expect the number of COVID-19 cases to increase in the state as a result of the relaxation of many mitigation measures, a process that continues Saturday with the state handing most decisions on such measures to local jurisdictions.

The transfer of authority, which will raise occupancy limits in Clark County to 80 percent and make other changes, comes after a week in which many of Nevada’s key COVID-19 metrics spent remained above recent averages. That was true again on Friday, with the state reporting 510 new cases and five additional deaths.

State public officials said Friday that they expect the relaxed rules will produce increases in case numbers, at least. But they don’t know what role vaccination might play in dampening the surge or whether hospitalizations or deaths will rise as a result.

“As we see a reduction in mitigation measures we will see an increase in cases,” Caleb Cage, the state’s COVID-19 response director, said at a news briefing on Friday. “So we need to monitor whether or not that increase in cases leads to an increase in hospitalizations … and mortality rate.”

He said the surge in cases likely won’t be apparent for weeks or months.

Cage added that state officials will continue to balance reviving the economy with keeping people safe.

“I think we’re going to continue in that vein and make sure we’re not putting people unnecessarily at risk,” he said.

In Clark County, the mitigation plan approved by the state will not only raise occupancy rates but reduce social distancing requirements, from 6 feet to 3 feet.

60 percent vaccination target

The county has indicated it will lift those limits entirely once 60 percent of the 1.8 million county residents who are eligible for a COVID-19 vaccine have received at least one dose. As of Friday’s report, 45 percent of Nevadans 16 and older in Clark County have at least one dose, according to state data.

Friday’s update by the Department of Health and Human Services on the state’s coronavirus website brought totals in the state to 315,438 cases and 5,464 deaths since the pandemic began.

All of the new deaths recorded occurred in Clark County, according to data from the Southern Nevada Health District.

The new cases reported on Friday were well above the moving 14-day average of daily recorded cases, which dropped slightly to 257. Fatalities were just above the average number of four daily recorded deaths over the same period.

The two-week average of cases climbed slowly throughout most of April, from 226 at the beginning of the month to a recent peak of 310 on April 20, before retreating a bit in recent days.

The two-week average of fatalities, meanwhile, stayed flat at five per day for the first two weeks of April before dropping to four during the latter half of the month. The average is well below the levels of a month ago, as March started with an average of 12 deaths reported daily, the data show.

Positivity rate flat all week

As of Friday, the state’s two-week positivity rate, which essentially tracks the percentage of people tested for COVID-19 who are found to be infected, was at 5.7 percent for the fifth day in a row.

The rate had been declining steadily for about three months until April, when it rose from 4.2 percent to 5.9 percent. After retreating by 0.2 percentage point, it remained unchanged through this week.

The number of people in Nevada hospitalized with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 cases also remained unchanged Friday, at 327. Hospitalization numbers also rose slightly to end the week above the 290 reported a week earlier.

State and county health agencies often redistribute the daily data after it is reported to better reflect the date of death or onset of symptoms, which is why the moving-average trend lines frequently differ from daily reports and are considered better indicators of the direction of the outbreak.

Clark County on Friday reported 392 new cases, according to the Southern Nevada Health District’s coronavirus website. Cumulative totals for the county rose to 243,942 cases and 4,300 deaths.

The county’s two-week positivity rate remained at 5.6 percent, according to state data.

Contact Katelyn Newberg at knewberg@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0240. Follow @k_newberg on Twitter.