Nevada COVID-19 death toll hits 120 amid signs of slower growth rate

Public health authorities on Monday reported 120 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 and one additional death overnight in Clark County amid signs that the rate of growth of the disease may be slowing both locally and across the state.

The state Health and Human Services Department reported six new deaths and 135 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Nevada. That brought the death toll in the state from the disease caused by the new coronavirus to 120.

The Southern Nevada Health District provided no details on the new cases, which brought the total of confirmed cases in the county to 2,444, or the death, which pushed the death toll to 101. The district estimates that 1,082 of the patients confirmed to have COVID-19 have recovered.

The new numbers were up from 2,324 cases and 100 deaths reported by the health district late Sunday.

Meanwhile, the number of confirmed cases of the disease caused by the new coronavirus in Nevada reached 3,036, according to reports from health districts and other local agencies. That was an increase of 197 cases from the caseload reported late Sunday by the state Department of Health and Human Services.

The state’s total of confirmed COVID-19 cases was drawn from testing of 25,464 people and reflected an infection rate of 11.6 percent. That number is likely elevated, as those tested amid an ongoing shortage of test kits are mainly either seriously ill or have been in close contact with a diagnosed patient.

Some numbers trending down

The number of new confirmed cases reported daily by the health district has declined somewhat after peaking at 266 new cases on Friday. The daily number of cases in the state also has dropped from its peak of 231 new cases on Wednesday.

The number of hospitalizations in Clark County also has held steady since Saturday after climbing steadily over the previous weeks.

But despite the positive signals, it’s too soon to say if new cases are truly leveling off “given delays in disease reporting and laboratory confirmation of new cases,” Dr. Vit Kraushaar, medical investigator for the Southern Nevada Health District, said on Monday.

“What we see now in terms of number of cases and growth in cases is tied into our behavior now,” which has been influenced by the closure of schools and nonessential businesses, and recommendations of “social distancing,” or staying 6 feet or more apart from one another, he said.

“The last thing we want to do is have people end social distancing and see a spike” in case numbers by declaring victory prematurely, he said.

Brian Labus, an assistant professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at UNLV’s School of Public Health, had a similar read on the recent data.

“We could be in kind of a plateau for a while because our control measures have kept things at a constant rate,” he said. “Clearly, if we see a continuing onward trend, then you can say we’re on the other side of this outbreak.”

Modeling by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington indicated Monday that Nevada peaked last week in terms of both numbers of daily deaths from COVID-19 and use of hospital resources. Its earlier predictions had been for peaks later this month.

Earlier this month, the often-cited model by the respected institute was predicting more than 900 deaths in Nevada from COVID-19, whereas on Monday it was forecasting fewer than 300.

The institute also has lowered its projections for U.S. deaths from almost 94,000 to under 69,000 citing increased data about the course of the pandemic.

Warning against early relaxation of rules

The institute’s director, Dr. Christopher Murray, said on Twitter that removing social distancing too soon after a peak could result in a “rebound” or “second wave” of cases.

With so much still unknown about the new coronavirus, Kraushaar noted that COVID-19 could become a seasonal disease where we would see additional cases next fall and winter.

In other developments Monday:

— Nevada has had 177 COVID-19 cases and 18 deaths from the disease in nursing homes, assisted living centers and other institutional settings, including prisons, according to a new state tracking tool unveiled Monday. The tracking tool created by the state HHS Department shows 92 residents and 85 staff members infected among 32 facilities across the state, 24 of them in Clark County, six in Washoe County, and one each in Carson City and White Pine County; 17 are skilled nursing centers, where a total of 99 residents and staff have contracted COVID-19 and 12 deaths have occurred.

— A 31-year-old inmate at the Clark County Detention Center is the first person at the facility to test positive for COVID-19. The unidentified inmate is being treated at University Medical Center, the Metropolitan Police Department announced. “Three additional inmates in that same unit have been moved to negative air pressure cells and have undergone testing for the virus,” while others have been quarantined while the unit was sanitized, it said in a statement.

— Nye County officials reported five new cases of COVID-19 in Pahrump on Monday and said none of the cases was related. That brought the number of confirmed cases in the county to 15. Authorities say two of the patients have recovered.

— Authorities in Washoe County reported 39 new cases of the illness on Monday, pushing the number of confirmed cases to 500. The county has reported 12 deaths and 71 recoveries from COVID-19.

— The Quad-County Emergency Operations Center reported one new positive case of COVID-19 in the region, which encompasses Carson City and Douglas, Lyon and Storey counties. The case, involving a Carson City man in his 60s, brings the total number of cases to 43, with 11 recoveries, 32 cases remain active.

Contact Mike Brunker at mbrunker@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4656. Follow @mike_brunker on Twitter.

Contact Mary Hynes at mhynes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0336. Follow @MaryHynes1 on Twitter.