LV Valley economic index moves in sideways direction

Southern Nevada’s economy is moving sideways and has closely tracked the U.S. economy since 2005, a local economist said.

The national economy dropped fairly sharply in the first quarter and gross domestic product was revised below 2.4 percent, said Keith Schwer, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

“The U.S. economy is going where we thought it was, and that has had an impact on us,” Schwer said. “We’re slowing down, too.”

The Southern Nevada Index of Leading Indicators moved upward in June to 133.06, compared with 132.74 in the previous month. It’s down 0.46 percent from a year ago.

The index, compiled by CBER, is a six-month forecast from the month of data, April, based on a net-weighted average of series after adjustment for seasonal variation.

The accompanying Review-Journal chart includes several of the index’s categories, along with data such as new residents and employment and housing numbers, updated for the most recent month for which figures are available.

Half of the 10 data series contributed negatively to the June index, led by declining taxable sales and visitor volume. While nearly 6,000 new residents moved to Las Vegas Valley in May, population growth is down 13.7 percent from the same month a year ago.

Housing data showed major declines. Both new and existing home sales fell by more than 40 percent, which has prompted builders to pull back on permits. Residential building permits fell 24 percent in April and 14.9 percent in May.

Despite the slowdown in residential construction, Las Vegas is not dipping into a recession, Schwer said.

Even if builders cut back by 12,000 homes a year, from 36,000 to 24,000 permits, it would take more than eight years to catch up with the $30 billion in projects planned or under construction on the Strip, he calculated.

“Now’s a good time for a slowdown in residential. We’re not growing at breakneck speed, but much more measured. We’re no longer No. 1. So what? Yeah, housing is in the dumps, but housing was great for a long time. You didn’t hear any complaints when it was booming,” Schwer said.

A separate Clark County Business Activity Index from CBER slowed from a strong pace to a more moderate rate, increasing 0.42 percent to 191.16 in April. It’s up 1.62 percent from a year ago.

“We attribute continued growth to strong construction along the Strip and near-capacity tourism volume,” Schwer said. “The recent more modest pace of activity is attributed to the drag in residential construction.”