Nevada gaming win rebounds, but baccarat volatility dings 1st quarter

Nevada gaming win rebounded from two months of declining revenue in September, just as analysts had predicted, but the fiscal year’s first quarter revenue still trailed the previous year, the Nevada Gaming Control Board reported Tuesday.

Analysts say the first-quarter slump is more likely the result of the volatility of baccarat than a declining revenue trend.

Nevada’s 440 licensed casinos produced $1.31 billion in gaming win in September, a 3.3 percent increase from September 2023. But for the first quarter of the fiscal year, the win is off 2.6 percent from the previous year.

That’s because of a tough comparison in baccarat statistics, according to Michael Lawton, senior economic analyst for the Control Board who crunches the state’s monthly gaming statistics.

Lawton said most of the revenue decline is the result of baccarat “hold,” the percentage of money casinos won from players. Lawton recently explained the volatility of baccarat to the Review-Journal.

“The decline is being driven by difficult hold comparisons which saw the same quarter of 2023 record a hold percentage of 21.5 percent, which was historically very high, compared to the 11.6 percent recorded during this quarter which is below average,” Lawton explained Tuesday. “When you remove baccarat from the totals, the Strip is up 3.4 percent or $60.8 million for the quarter and the state is up 3.3 percent or $114.2 million.”

For the month, Strip win was down 1.8 percent to $727.7 million, but double-digit percentage increases in downtown Las Vegas (33 percent), the Boulder Strip (19.3 percent) and outlying Clark County, which includes Henderson (15.9 percent) carried the state’s performance.

The state’s biggest declines in gaming win came in South and North Lake Tahoe (down 18.8 percent and 14.8 percent, respectively), but Reno casinos provided a 12.4 percent increase.

Timing of collections

Last month, Lawton predicted the September numbers would be higher because of the timing of the collection of win data. That, he said, was why the August win was off compared with the previous year.

Gaming industry analyst Joe Greff of New York-based J.P. Morgan explained that September slot machine revenue was slightly higher because of the quirky timing of revenue counts.

“Because the prior month ended on a weekend, slot win for Saturday, Aug. 31, was reported in September results, overstating September 2024 slot revenue (a quirk on NV reporting; slot handle, table drop, and table win are unaffected). In 2023, September ended on a weekend, with slot win for Saturday, Sept. 30, reported in October results, understating September 2023 slot revenue. August 2019 also ended on a weekend, with one weekend day reported in September 2019 results. The net of these impacts created a two-day favorable year-over-year comparison and a neutral comparison versus 2019 for slot win during September 2024,” Greff said in a Tuesday report to investors.

Sports, entertainment drive volume

Sporting events and entertainment kept the city busy in September resulting in high volume in casinos.

Allegiant Stadium hosted the Vegas Kick Off Classic featuring a college football game between Louisiana State and the University of Southern California on Sept. 1.

Pink brought her Summer Carnival tour to Allegiant Stadium on Sept. 13. Canelo Alvarez defended his Super Middleweight titles on Sept. 14 at T-Mobile Arena against Edgar Berlanga.

UFC 306 was the first ever sporting event held at the Sphere on Sept. 14. The Eagles performed four dates at the Sphere starting on Sept. 20.

The Las Vegas Raiders played home games at Allegiant Stadium Sept. 22 against the Carolina Panthers and Sept. 29 against the Cleveland Browns. Garth Brooks returned to the Colosseum inside Caesars Palace Sept. 26-29 and Maroon 5 played at Dolby Live inside the Park MGM on Sept. 27-28.

The state’s sportsbooks reported record revenue of $80.9 million, up 29.8 percent from September 2023 thanks to a 10.57 percent hold percentage compared with 7.68 percent last year and despite a handle, the amount wagered, down 5.7 percent.

Contact Richard N. Velotta at rvelotta@reviewjournal.com or 702-477-3893. Follow @RickVelotta on X.