Biggest Super Bowl wager may be how much betting action there’ll be

It may well be that the biggest wager on Super Bowl LV is whether bettors will come out in record numbers.

We’re already surmising that Las Vegas — usually the go-to destination for Super Bowl parties and gambling — is going to be somewhat subdued Sunday compared with previous years, thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, though 21 states can now take Super Bowl bets this year compared with 14 a year ago, the jury is out on whether there will be a record handle.

When the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act in May 2018, it opened the door to sports wagering in any state that would allow it.

What is Super Bowl LV going to look like in Las Vegas this year? Despite 25 percent capacity restrictions, expect plenty of people in town — maybe not the more than 300,000 who were here last year, but tens of thousands who can’t bet sports legally in their home states of California, Arizona, Utah and Idaho.

In Arizona, incidentally, state lawmakers are considering a bill that would allow up to 20 sports betting licenses for both retail and mobile wagering through a combination of tribal casinos, professional sports teams, NASCAR and the PGA Tour.

There are indications the Strip resorts are expecting a bump in traffic. In last week’s Wynn Resorts Ltd. earnings conference call, CEO Matt Maddox told investors that the company is expecting 50 percent occupancy at Wynn and Encore, the best turnout rate at those hotels since October.

The Nevada Gaming Control Board has promised to keep an eye on licensees to make sure they don’t violate the government’s capacity rules. The Super Bowl parties that usually draw big crowds to big screens will be restricted to 50 people or 25 percent of the fire code limit, whichever is less. That has resulted in some properties getting creative with their meeting spaces, turning one ballroom into two smaller rooms for example. But gone will be some of the festive Super Bowl buffets that were a part of the “big game” events at local resorts.

Regardless of the restrictions, many are still expecting a record amount to be bet on the outcome of the Chiefs-Buccaneers game and the dozens of proposition bets surrounding the matchup. There are widely varying estimates on just how much will be wagered across the country.

The American Gaming Association is anticipating 23.2 million people to bet a total of $4.3 billion on the game. The association considers friendly betting among friends as well as illegal wagering, from the unreliable offshore online casinos to corner bookies, in its estimates.

Sara Slane, founder of Washington-based SlaneAdvisory.com, is expecting a record handle nationwide on the Super Bowl because of the widespread availability of sports wagering in addition to the compelling matchup between quarterbacks Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.

As for Las Vegas, “It’ll look different … but I don’t think it’ll stop people from betting,” she said. “Is it going to be the blockbuster weekend Vegas is used to having? No. … But I expect the number (in Nevada) to be strong.”

Researchers with Eilers & Krejcik Gaming expect the legal betting handle will be around $615 million nationwide.

While Super Bowl betting in Nevada may be less than in previous years, it’s still hard to fathom just how far Las Vegas has come since 2003, the year the NFL rejected a clever “What happens here, stays here” television advertisement during that year’s Super Bowl broadcast.

Today, we’re an NFL city. We’re getting the NFL Draft in 2022. We were supposed to have the Pro Bowl in January.

And, the biggest promise of all is that the $2 billion home of the Raiders, Allegiant Stadium, will someday host the NFL’s biggest showcase.

Contact Richard N. Velotta at rvelotta@reviewjournal.com or 702-477-3893. Follow @RickVelotta on Twitter.