NCAA betting insanely huge this week
If any one player epitomizes what the NCAA Tournament means to bettors and the sports books, it’s Mamadou Ndiaye, a 7-foot-6-inch, 300-pound mountain of a man for UC Irvine.
“It draws huge interest,” Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill sports book director, said of the college basketball madness about to bust loose.
It might not be bigger in terms of dollars wagered, but this event is better than the Super Bowl. Instead of one game on one day, we get 60-plus games over three weeks.
“It’s insane,” said veteran oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro of the South Point sports book.
This event is insanely huge, just like Ndiaye, who will lead the 13th-seeded Anteaters against fourth-seeded Louisville on Friday. It’s an East Region game in Seattle, if that makes any sense.
Once again, the selection committee putting this puzzle together made some puzzling moves. But the No. 1 seeds — Kentucky, Villanova, Duke and Wisconsin — were the right ones. That was the easy part.
The tough part is picking the upsets in the office pool and finding the underdogs that will cover the spread Thursday and Friday. UC Irvine, the Big West Conference tournament champion, is a 9-point underdog to the Cardinals.
“Louisville is very vulnerable right now,” said Bruce Marshall, handicapper for The Gold Sheet.
Rick Pitino is a reliable tournament coach. But he dismissed his point guard in February, and his best interior scorer is 6-8 forward Montrezl Harrell, who is not that big in comparison to Ndiaye.
UC Irvine is on this week’s early list of live ’dogs with (in betting rotation order) Harvard, Georgia State, Alabama-Birmingham, Stephen F. Austin, Eastern Washington, Belmont, Buffalo, Wyoming, North Dakota State and Davidson.
“I think Buffalo could do it,” Bogdanovich said.
It’s good to be popular if you’re in high school and desire to be the homecoming king or queen. But in the NCAA Tournament, being the chic pick is seldom a positive. A year ago, Michigan State was the pick to win the tournament by almost all of ESPN’s talking heads. The Spartans fell to Connecticut, a team no one was picking, in the Elite Eight.
Buffalo is one of the hottest ’dogs on the board. The Bulls, coached by rising star Bobby Hurley and led by forward Justin Moss, are getting 4½ points against West Virginia on Friday.
“You would be getting more points with these ’dogs in the old days,” Bogdanovich said.
That’s one problem with being a ’dog player. Five to 10 years ago, a team like Buffalo might have been getting 7½ points. But there is more parity in the 68-team field now, and most bettors are better informed about the underdogs. Still, later in the week, when the crowds roll into Las Vegas, the public will start to pile on a majority of the favorites.
“If there ever is a time when public money might influence a line, it’s this tournament for sure,” Bogdanovich said.
Marshall (Goldsheet.com) surveyed the field and went ’dog hunting.
“I think Wyoming has got a shot against Northern Iowa,” he said. “Georgia State could give Baylor a fight. A lot of people are going to pick Stephen F. Austin, but I don’t think they’re going to beat Utah.”
The Lumberjacks, 29-4 and winners of the Southland Conference, are 6½-point underdogs to the Utes on Thursday. Bogdanovich called Stephen F. Austin the “perfect example” of a team that might have been getting 10 points years ago.
Georgetown, often a flop in March, is an 8-point favorite over Eastern Washington on Thursday. The game is being played in Portland, Ore., an advantage for the Eagles and their high-scoring guard, Tyler Harvey.
“Eastern Washington is a dangerous team,” said Marshall, who also mentioned UC Irvine and North Dakota State, an 18-point ’dog that will try to slow down the game against Gonzaga on Friday.
“Everybody is picking Buffalo,” Marshall said. “Everybody is picking these 12s.”
The No. 12 seeds are 8-4 against the No. 5 seeds the past three years. The 12s this week are Buffalo, Wyoming, Stephen F. Austin and Wofford.
Wichita State was in the ’dog role long ago. Now, I’m backing the Shockers as 5-point favorites over Indiana on Friday.
The Hoosiers, on the so-called bubble, got a No. 10 seed. That was a puzzling move by the committee, which surprisingly put UCLA in the field and left out Colorado State and Temple. On top of that, Dayton was handed a home play-in game against Boise State on Wednesday.
In the Big Ten tournament championship, Sunday’s last game before the brackets were announced, Michigan State blew an 11-point second-half lead and lost to Wisconsin 80-69 in overtime.
“It’s got to be one of the worst beats of the year if you had Michigan State plus-7,” Vaccaro said. “That was our worst game of the day, too.”
He was watching a TV show about the search for Bigfoot and the Loch Ness Monster. Good luck finding that pair or a team that will beat Kentucky before the Final Four.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.
