Tom Herman, Houston kiss Louisville goodbye
In an odd pregame routine, Houston coach Tom Herman gives each of his players a hug, followed by a kiss on either the cheek, forehead or neck. The kiss is the odd part.
That would make me want to leave the team and transfer, but apparently his players respond well to shows of affection. The proof was on display Thursday night.
The Cougars kissed Louisville goodbye and knocked them out of College Football Playoff contention in a 36-10 blowout that got ugly early.
“It’s crazy, isn’t it? It’s almost unfathomable that Houston would be up 31-0 at the half,” Paramount Sports handicapper Lee Sterling said.
The college season always gets crazy in November and early December, which is why it’s foolish for anyone to overreact to the first few announcements of playoff rankings. Nothing truly matters but the final rankings that set the final four.
But there is a handicapping angle to the knee-jerk reactions. Because most bettors believe certain teams (such as No. 5 Louisville) need to win in blowouts and compile style points, the point spreads get inflated on the favorites. It’s especially evident now.
The latest example: The Cardinals opened as 13½-point favorites at Houston, and the line closed at 17½. Hindsight turns us all into geniuses, but it’s obvious Louisville was overpriced at minus-1,000 on the money line.
“By my power rankings, all of these lines should be 3 to 3½ points less,” said Sterling, who cashed a bet on the underdog Cougars at a bargain price.
Alabama is No. 1 in the rankings, followed by Ohio State, Michigan and Clemson. Take an eraser to Louisville. Washington is No. 6, followed by Wisconsin and Penn State.
The Buckeyes are 22½-point favorites at Michigan State on Saturday. It’s easy to claim that line is full of helium, but it’s a little tougher to bet the Spartans when considering Ohio State won each of its past two games against Maryland and Nebraska by scores of 62-3.
The Wolverines are 24-point home favorites over Indiana, a week after Michigan suffered a stunning 14-13 loss as a 24-point favorite at Iowa.
“The home field in college football is so big,” said Sterling (ParamountSports.com). “If Iowa played at Michigan, the Hawkeyes would lose by four touchdowns.”
Deshaun Watson and the Tigers are 22½-point favorites at Wake Forest, a week after Clemson was upset 43-42 as a 22-point favorite over Pittsburgh.
Las Vegas bookmakers were smiling last weekend after the betting public piled on Michigan, Clemson and Washington, which was upset at home by Southern California.
“Anything can happen, and we saw it last week,” William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said. “If you’re playing the Ohio States, Louisvilles and Clemsons of the world, you’re getting taxed pretty good. There’s no question the numbers are jacked up a little.
“I hope everything goes crazy. I hope Auburn beats Alabama and really shakes things up.”
Alabama is the only team that seems safely in the final four. The Crimson Tide need not worry about style points.
Washington has the weakest resume — its cupcake nonconference schedule consisted of Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State — and would be the easiest team to exclude.
Louisville’s loss Thursday threw yet another wrinkle into the rankings while loosening sophomore quarterback Lamar Jackson’s grip on the Heisman Trophy. He was the overwhelming favorite at 1-50 odds at the Westgate sports book this week.
Houston’s win further set up Herman, a former assistant to Ohio State’s Urban Meyer and once a graduate assistant at Texas, for a bigger job. The Cougars had failed to cover their previous five games, but they did upset Oklahoma in September, and their midseason slump is now forgotten.
“Herman might make even more money after this one,” Sterling said.
Houston, prepare to kiss your coach goodbye. Herman soon will be hugging the Longhorns.
CLOSING NUMBERS
I need a bounce-back week, but I’m not certain this is it. At 31-30-1 for the season, here are six plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):
ILLINOIS (+10) over Iowa; Northwestern (-2) over MINNESOTA; Duke (+7½) over PITTSBURGH; Georgia Southern (-3) over GEORGIA STATE; Oklahoma State (+4½) over TEXAS CHRISTIAN; Florida (+14½) over LOUISIANA STATE.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow @mattyoumans247 on Twitter.
